Three Trans-Atlantic Observers discuss every two weeks Markets, Society and other entertaining absurdities. The American educator Alfred Whitney Griswold said, “The only sure weapon against bad ideas is good ideas.” With that in mind, we’ve launched this Podcast OFF THE FENCE. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a subject we think we may know something about, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions and no swearing. We hope you enjoy it.
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society. German Energy SubsidiesFactions in the European Union European government credibility and visionTrump capacity to become president againAnd why it does not really matter to the success of the USNo AI for EuropeIs the Dollar really at risk of losing reserve status? The Biden Administration Just Declared the Death of Neoliberalism https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/biden-just-declared-the-death-of-neoliberalism.htm...
5 Jun 2023
Apple as a Bank and what AI means for markets and corporates
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society. Apple’s Savings Account and is it a new Financial PlayerFuture of retail bankingCan payments ever be costless?The weight and cost of financial regulationAGI and open source AI tools lead the wayThe power of an independent AI developer sceneWhat does AI mean for companies large and small Andrej Karpathy: Tesla AI, Self-Driving, Optimus, Aliens, and AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdiD-9MMpb0
20 Mar 2023
Anything happening with Banks?
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets. Silicon Valley BankStress TestsHow big is this crisis and what tools remain to fight itCredit Suisse goes boomEuropean regulators dim view of US Regulators Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method (sometimes a refresher is helpful) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point...
6 Jan 2023
Future of London as Financial Center, Twitter
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets. - London as a financial center - The old magic of the American London headquarter - Wold Cup woes - Can an US World Cup do to Football what Liberty Media did to F1 - Wokesness gone too far and the future of Endowments - The Twitter Saga Again, go try this https://chat.openai.com What even is Europe? Kraut https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtymaSR3T48 Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current...
6 Jan 2023
New Year's Predications, Ukraine, Why ESG?
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets. Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine Lex Fridman Podcast #289 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a7CDKqWcZ0&t=7650s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a spec...
6 Dec 2022
Frauds, Damn Frauds and Statistics. SBF, Marks to Market, Private Equity
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets. - Fraud makes a return to the Stage. - Interesting new governmental approaches to prosecuting said fraud - Contrasting SBF and Madoff - Optimism vs. Rationality with our resident optimist - Gating and Infrequent marks as a feature not a bug of Private Equity and other Karl Popperisms... Go try this https://chat.openai.com The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea W. Spaniel Essay https://www.youtub...
22 Nov 2022
Elections, Manias and Crashes
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - US Elections - What if large technology companies can run down 80% on headcount - Are we getting a taste of future AI impact? - CBDC forces Central Banks into Politics Fun viewing Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc&t=2884s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an insti...
4 Nov 2022
Treasury Markets, the Fed and Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - Liquidity in the Treasury Markets. - USD TIPS (treasury inflation Protected Securities) and inflation expectations https://treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/#:~:text=As%20the%20name%20implies%2C%20TIPS,you%20get%20the%20increased%20amount Fun viewing The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble | Lyn Alden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im071GMdmkw&t=1444s Welcome back to Off the Fence, ...
4 Nov 2022
Ukraine, End Games and What future for free markets
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - Backward bending supply curve for Civil involvement. - Are we progressing/regressing in Free markets and other Karl Popperisms... Fun viewing The Ideology of Putin's Russia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFtqa54TuM&t=941s and the response The Ideology of Putin's Russia (reaction to @Kraut) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7u3Z3GyLiI&t=360s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we lo...
13 Oct 2022
7. UK, Pensions, What to do in the middle of a Volatile downturn
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets. - UK Pension and Gilt Chaos. - Surviving is about Risk Control Fun viewing THE U.S: The Next 100 Years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98SjPPrYRno Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a l...
3 Oct 2022
6. US Politics and Market
In this episode we discuss - US Politics and the outlook for the midterm - Market down and VIX way up, Market rallies and VIX goes up further - US as the engine of growth Fun viewing TRUSTLESS SOCIETIES https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=404IeUzGNZ4&t=172s Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments. Every two weeks, we’ll...
6 Sept 2022
5. Global Markets and Security
In this episode we discuss - Recent Fed signaling - This winter in Europe - How fragile is the global security blanket China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk Lex Fridman Podcast #314 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF-E40pxxbI&t=4982s Ousted Republican reflects on Trump, democracy and America: ‘The place has lost its mind’ https://www.theguardian.com/us-new...
15 Aug 2022
4. Experiences in Bear Market Rallies
In this episode we discuss - Economic impact of Inflation - Is China Slowing down? - Trading Bear Markets rallies - What are scenarios for Interest Rates? China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation by Nouriel Roubini https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/great-stagflation-has-replaced-great-moderation-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-08 Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at curren...
28 Jul 2022
3. Contrasting U.S. and European Economic models
Episode Links Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid (Article) The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/ The Future of Europe (Video) https://youtu.be/AkIX5yHF1dU Business Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote 'An Economy That Serves All Americans' | Business Roundtable (Article) https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-redefines-the-purpose-of...
19 Jul 2022
2. Lessons learned in Bear Markets
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions. In this episode we discuss ...
13 Jul 2022
Episode 1: Introducing Off the Fence and the Gang
Welcome to the first edition Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions. In this first podc...
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