- 18
- Episodes
- Bi-weekly
- Cadence
- 2025
- First episode
About Oils and Fats Podcast
Join Gehrman Kosenkov and Maria Cruz, Vesper’s vegetable oils experts, for our bi-weekly Oils and Fats series. Each session dives into price dynamics and trends across palm, soybean, sunflower, rapeseed, and coconut oils, while also unpacking the latest trade flows and sharing forecasts to help you anticipate what’s next in the market. *These video's are part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars
- Publisher
- Vesper
- Category
- news
- Language
- en
- Explicit
- No
- First episode
- 23 Sept 2025
- Latest episode
- 14 Oct 2026
Latest episodes
18 episodes in the feed.
14 Oct 2026
Oct. 13, 2026 - Vegetable oils market outlook/ from palm oil surpluses to sunflower oil supply risks
Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 24.5% in September, but the market had already priced it in. Sunflower oil is rebounding as Black Sea ceasefire hopes fade.Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, and Feiko Keilholz go through the whole veg oil complex. In palm oil, funds seem to have found the bottom and India is buying at lower prices, while Indonesian stocks sit at historically low levels and the market looks ahead to a smaller 2027 crop. In soybeans, a delayed US harvest and very long fund positions are keeping prices high, and higher US biofuel mandates could lift soybean oil demand in 2027. In sunflower oil, lower Black Sea exports and a slow season in Argentina keep the market tight. We close on coconut oil and palm kernel oil, and on a proposed 1% SAF blend in the Philippines by 2030.We also announce our new partnership with Noble Ag, whose US market reports will be published on the Vesper platform.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.
1 Oct 2026
Sep. 29, 2026 - Trump-Xi outcome, geopolitics and the veg oil S&D outlook
The Trump-Xi meeting brought no tariff cut on US soybeans and no new Chinese buying commitments. Palm oil dropped on expectations of a looser Malaysian balance.In week 40 we went through the whole veg oil complex. Malaysian palm stocks could exceed 3.1 million tons by the end of September, with MPOA reporting production up 19% in the first 20 days of the month compared with August, and cargo surveyors putting exports for the first 25 days down 15%. Production is still expected to decline sharply between November and February, especially in Indonesia. Indonesia's parliament also passed an agrarian reform law on September 22, with talk that plantation businesses may need to make 20% of their land available or share an equivalent 20% of profit.In soybeans, China kept its 13% import duty on US beans against 3% for Brazil, so private Chinese buyers keep favoring Brazilian origin. With funds very long and the US harvest progressing, Gehrman sees a possible liquidation that could weigh on CBOT soybeans and Chicago soybean oil, even with strong US biofuel demand underneath.Euronext rapeseed followed soy lower and Coceral raised its EU plus UK crop estimate to 21.3 million tons, while low Rhine water levels, the blocked Black Sea and a possible 10 to 15% cut in French planting area keep bullish risks in play. Sunflower oil keeps easing on ceasefire headlines and a good harvest, even though Russia produced only around 300,000 tons of sunflower oil in August against a 450,000-ton average. We closed on palm kernel and coconut oil, and on an olive oil market already trading near producers' break-even ahead of a large Spanish crop.Hosted by Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, with Gabriela Arroyo, veg oil expert.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.
2 Sept 2026
Sep. 1, 2026 - Palm, soy and canola: reading a week of EPA news and trade tension
GAPKI says El Niño could take up to 3 million tons out of next season's CPO production. The palm curve promptly split in two. In week 36 we went through the whole veg oil complex. Deferred palm contracts repriced on the GAPKI statement, which sits above what other industry bodies and analytical agencies have published, while the front of the curve stayed comfortable on flat-to-higher Malaysian August stocks. Indonesia's new export monitoring system went live on September 1, covering export data, pricing, destinations and the repatriation of export proceeds, with admin fees and any early delays still unknown. In the US, the EPA granted many more small refinery exemptions than the market anticipated, which either removes biodiesel demand or puts it on hold. The reallocation of those volumes to larger refineries is still a proposal, RIN generation has been running short of the pace the mandate needs, and there is speculation the mandate itself could be lowered. Canada feels that directly, since almost all of its canola oil goes to the US. Europe is leaning harder on imports. The EU Commission trimmed its rapeseed crop forecast while raising imports, Ukrainian volumes are well below last season on Black Sea logistics, and drought in Western Europe and Ukraine is complicating the current planting window. Sunflower oil keeps easing regardless, because importers have decided to wait for restored shipping and some form of deal. Gehrman's caution is that the longer the disruption persists the worse it will be, and the price will reverse at some point. Hosted by Gehrman Kosenkov, Vesper's oils & fats analyst, with Feiko Keilholz. This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live? Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.
18 Aug 2026
Aug. 18, 2026 – Weather, logistics and geopolitics: reading the oils and fats market
Gabriela and Gehrman review key vegetable oil markets, focusing on rallying palm oil forward prices versus softer spot prices. They attribute forward strength to rising energy prices, El Niño concerns, lower palm production forecasts for H2 2026 and 2027, and fund speculation, while spot is capped by high Malaysian stocks and recovered Indian stocks. They expect short-term profit-taking but continued support, with Q4 bullish risks from potential weaker Indonesian production (El Niño, lower fertilizer use, land seizures, high diesel), Indonesia’s October P50 sales, and government price-setting procedures. Matif rapeseed rises on disrupted Ukrainian logistics, Danube constraints, low river levels, higher transport costs, and dry-soil planting risks. Sunflower oil prices fall despite logistics issues due to crop expectations and Europe-focused flows; Asia may shift to other oils if disruptions persist. Soybean oil and soy rebound on higher Brent, strong US crush with falling soy oil stocks, and Chinese buying. Coconut oil and PKO rebound but are expected mostly sideways to slightly up, with floors supported by spreads, El Niño risk, and possible Philippine biodiesel mandate changes.
4 Aug 2026
Aug. 04, 2026 - Geopolitical nerves, a muted palm oil, and the crop watch ahead
Gabriela and Gehrman introduce Vesper’s new home screen and “Connect the Dots” feature that summarizes weekly price moves, news, and machine-learning forecasts with bull/bear drivers. They discuss escalating logistics disruptions: attacks in the Black Sea limiting deep-sea exports of sunflower oil, rapeseed, wheat and corn, keeping sunflower oil firm and raising concern for September–October shipments; and low Rhine and Danube river levels increasing barge costs and threatening irrigation and yields in Romania. In energy markets, Brent falls below $84 after Donald Trump calls off a planned strike on Iran and announces renewed negotiations, though Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab traffic remains low, pressuring most oils. Weather risks include EU heat, MARS yield cuts, and El Niño expected strongest Sep–Jan, with MPOB estimating late-2027 palm output down 10–14%. They review palm oil’s July supply/stocks rise, support from India demand and Indonesia B50, lauric oils tied to copra dynamics, soybean oil weakness from lower Brent and improved US rains amid China buying uncertainty, and rapeseed oil pressured by Brent but supported by Black Sea, EU logistics costs, and potential tighter Canadian exports due to US biofuel demand.
22 Jul 2026
Jul 22, 2026 - Brent rally versus record palm stocks: where veg oils go next
In a bi-weekly Oils and Fats webinar, analyst Ermin and host Gabriela review key market drivers across energy and vegetable oils. Brent crude rises to about $91–$93/bbl amid escalating Middle East shipping risks (Bab al-Mandab, Hormuz traffic declines), supporting veg oils. Indonesia will start a state-led export governance/data system on Sept. 1 as a commitment ahead of tighter “phase two” export channeling expected in January. Palm oil supply looked comfortable in H1 with strong early-year output and Indonesian/Malaysian stocks, but agencies warn H2 and 2027 could tighten due to El Niño, higher input costs, and policy-related investment risks. US tariffs on Brazilian tallow increase to 25%, supporting Chicago soybean oil alongside strong NOPA crush and lower soy oil stocks. Rapeseed prices hit multi-year highs on European heat, forecast cuts, Black Sea disruptions, and Australia El Niño risk. Sunflower oil gains but is capped by hopes for a larger upcoming crop; Europe remains tight due to weak Ukraine/Europe production despite improved Russian output. Coconut oil rebounds with volatile copra; PKO stays firm, and traders add EUDR premiums to Q4 PKO quotes.
7 Jul 2026
Jul 7, 2026 - Does a bearish energy market mean bearish veg oils?
In a bi-weekly oils and fats webinar, Vesper’s veg oils analyst reviews June supply-demand and key price drivers across markets. For palm oil, estimates suggest Malaysian stocks rose 3–5% in June, with production up 7–11% and exports up 14–17%, keeping stocks historically high and pressuring prices alongside weaker Brent and delays to Indonesia’s B50 rollout. Brent futures fell to just under $72/bbl as Strait of Hormuz flows recover and OPEC+ signals higher output; recent attacks did not spike prices. Indonesia’s B50 is now expected to start around October after a transition period, implying a more sideways-to-slightly-up Q3 outlook supported by Indian festive demand and El Niño concerns. Soybean oil fell on reduced biofuel feedstock share (EIA) but rebounded on Chinese buying and US heat/dryness forecasts. Crop updates include record Canadian canola area, tighter EU rapeseed prospects, and higher sunflower production expectations in Russia/Ukraine with weather risks. Coconut oil prices bottomed and rebounded on higher copra costs, supply tightness, typhoon/El Niño risk, and possible Philippines B5; Q4 lauric oils carry upside risk due to seasonal production/crushing declines.
23 Jun 2026
Jun 17, 2026 - Energy, Indonesia’s export centralization, and the crop outlook
Brent has slipped to its lowest in weeks, yet vegetable oils have not fallen as far. The question is what comes next. A fragile Middle East ceasefire and a reopening Strait of Hormuz have pulled energy lower, while palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils are holding more of their ground. At the same time, Indonesia’s move to route strategic exports through a new central body is reshaping how the world’s largest palm supplier reaches the market, and exporters are already adjusting. With a strong El Niño now declared, the crop outlook for palm, canola and Black Sea sunflower is far from settled. In this session you will get: • Where energy and veg oils are pulling apart, and what that tension means for price direction •️ The latest on Indonesia’s export centralisation and how it could move supply • A read on the crop outlook into the new season, El Niño included
9 Jun 2026
Jun. 9, 2026 - El Niño crop risk, Indonesia's export overhaul, and where Brent goes next
In this Oils & Fats webinar, Maria discusses with Gehrman key market drivers for vegetable oils. They review Brent crude’s drop from mid-May highs (~$108–110) to around $95 amid fragile Middle East ceasefire negotiations and hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting conflicting outlooks: EIA projects a gradual decline through 2026–27 due to infrastructure damage, while oil majors warn low inventories could trigger a spike to $165. They explain Indonesia’s new export centralization policy starting June 1, aimed at curbing under-invoicing, with reporting now and potential government takeover of export operations by 2027, raising concerns about disruption and investment. They cover Malaysia palm oil stocks possibly rising in May, lauric (PKO) and coconut oil price weakness amid better coconut supply and Philippines exports, El Niño risks for 2027 and crops (notably Australia canola), rapeseed oil firmness with expectations of harvest-time easing, and sunflower oil supply improving but prices supported by other oils and energy.
12 May 2026
May 12, 2026 - Energy markets, Palm kernel supply, and oilseed outlook
In this week's webinar we review key drivers across the oils complex. Brent crude fell from about $114 to $104/bbl, rebounding after the US called Iran’s proposal unacceptable; optimism around a potential US–Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz access keeps prices below highs, and vegetable oils track Brent due to biofuel feedstock demand. Malaysia’s April MPOB palm oil data met expectations: strong production, exports down ~15%, and stocks up ~1.7%, with year-to-date production a multi-year high; Indonesia also started strongly, though agencies warn H2 production risks from high fertilizer costs, El Niño, and land seizures. CBOT soybeans strengthened ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting amid hopes China may commit to buying US soybeans despite cheaper Brazilian supply. Canada’s canola stocks are 28% higher y/y due to weak early exports amid China duties later lifted; Europe faces tighter rapeseed stocks. Sunflower plantings in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe are behind last year, with fertilizer cost concerns, though agencies still expect higher production from larger acreage. In the lauric market, coconut oil prices are easing on improving Philippine output expectations and a backwardated curve, but exports remain low year-to-date; Malaysian palm kernel oil production and PKIO exports are strong, with combined Jan–Apr Malaysia+Indonesia PKIO exports at ~772k vs ~725k last year. Near-term price direction is highly dependent on Middle East developments, with Q2 viewed more bearish for coconut and palm kernel oils and palm oil correction limited unless Brent declines materially, while later-year palm oil has supportive biofuel and supply-risk factors.
16 Apr 2026
Apr. 14, 2026 - Geopolitics and policy updates in Veg oil markets
In this oils and fats webinar, the hosts discuss key market drivers for procurement managers, starting with Middle East conflict developments and their impact on Brent crude, which dropped on ceasefire/Strait of Hormuz news then rebounded after failed talks and U.S. escalation signals; vegetable oil prices followed Brent’s swings, with futures reacting faster than physical benchmarks. They announce U.S. expansion via Sosland price data added to the platform. Biofuel policy updates include Indonesia’s B50 starting July 1 for PSO demand (adding roughly 1.8 million metric tons of palm oil demand) and Malaysia’s intent to move from B10 toward B15 via B12, both supportive for palm oil. The Philippines’ biofuel policy is uncertain, pressuring Manila coconut oil prices, while Thailand raised blending and limited palm oil exports. Malaysian March MPOB data showed sharply lower palm oil stocks (about 15%) on strong exports as demand shifted from Indonesia after an export tax hike; palm kernel oil stocks also fell, supporting prices amid production concerns. For sunflower oil, Argentina’s higher oil and seed exports are offsetting weaker Black Sea supply, and next-season production expectations are higher, adding bearish fundamentals if conflict risks fade.
17 Mar 2026
Mar. 17, 2026 - Middle East conflict risks vs. bearish fundamentals in veg oil markets
This biweekly oils webinar, analysts discuss how day 18 of the Middle East conflict is driving volatility in Brent crude through Strait of Hormuz risks, attacks, and higher shipping, fuel, and insurance costs, filtering into vegetable oils mainly via biofuel economics. Palm oil has surged to multi-year highs, supported by Brent, renewed Indonesia B50 speculation, strong Indonesian exports and stocks data, and increased Malaysian exports as Asian buyers (e.g., India) favor nearby supply amid logistics risks. Soybean oil rose but corrected on fund liquidation and bearish soybean complex sentiment tied to weaker China demand expectations and uncertainty over delayed US biofuel policy finalization; Brazil is considering raising biodiesel mandates (B15 to B16 or B17). Rapeseed and sunflower oil fell on forecasts of much larger 2026 crops, with additional sunflower supply relief from sharply higher Argentine shipments. Lauric oils (coconut/palm kernel) are rising with palm and logistics issues; the Philippines debates biofuel import rules to manage fuel and food prices. Olive oil is least affected, with prices steady amid normalizing Spanish output and adequate stocks elsewhere.
17 Feb 2026
Feb. 17, 2026 - Production trends, policy shifts, and price outlooks.
In the first OS oils webinar of the new year, the hosts recap new Vesper platform features including dashboard sharing, “bring your own data,” and a Commodity Copilot that answers market and platform questions using only Vesper data and provides cited sources. The market discussion covers palm oil, noting recent price declines tied to Chinese New Year demand and weak Malaysian exports, with stocks falling but Q1 spikes limited by expected good supply; POC consensus suggests Malaysian production down 0.3–0.5 MMT and mixed views on Indonesia, where land seizures may reduce output later in 2026, while B50 test results and future biofuel speculation could support prices in Q3–Q4. In laurics, coconut oil prices fell on recovery expectations, while palm kernel oil stayed flat with modest production declines offset by coconut recovery. Soybean oil futures rose on anticipated US biodiesel policy finalization and possible stronger demand from India, with outlook dependent on policy details. Rapeseed oil supply looks comfortable in Europe due to strong crush/imports and ample stocks, pressuring prices. Sunflower oil eased; despite drone damage to Russian facilities and record-low exports, possible stock buildup and a better Argentine crop could weigh on Q2, with seasonal tightness affecting Q3–Q4.
16 Dec 2025
Dec. 16, 2025 - Trade swings and 2026 VegOil price outlook
In a biweekly oils webinar, the host interviews analyst Gehrman on recent moves in vegetable oil markets and an outlook into 2026. Palm oil prices faced pressure after Malaysia’s ending stocks rose 13% versus expectations due to good production and weak November exports, with similar weak export signals from Indonesia; December may stay flat to slightly down, while January could see recovery from seasonal production declines, festive demand, low Indian stocks, and palm’s relative price attractiveness. Soybean oil prices fell amid bearish US soybean fundamentals (Brazil competitiveness to China), higher US soy oil stocks, potential Argentine export tax cuts, and India order cancellations; Argentina’s forward curve is backwardated while US soy oil futures show contango tied to expected 2026 biodiesel demand. US biodiesel policy lacks final signature, while Germany plans to end double counting, keep veg oils in biodiesel, and tighten sustainability certification, implying higher rapeseed oil demand. Sunflower supply is tight after USDA cut global production estimates and reports of lower Russia output, with Turkey importing heavily from Romania, supporting higher prices despite possible Q1 correction on Argentina harvest.
18 Nov 2025
Nov. 18, 2025 - Conflicting B50 signals, weak rapeseed stocks, volatile sunflower prices
In Vesper’s biweekly oils webinar, the hosts review key market developments and a 2026 outlook across the vegetable oils complex. From the IPOC palm oil conference, most speakers forecast a 1–1.5 MMT decline in 2026 palm production, with added uncertainty from Indonesia’s seizure of illegal plantations potentially lowering yields longer term; Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel for 2026 was viewed as unlikely, though B45 was discussed as a realistic interim step requiring ~2–2.5 MMT additional palm oil. Palm prices were described as having strong upside risk, with conference estimates around $1,100–$1,200/mt for 2026. Soybean oil has risen on stronger US disappearance and market optimism around US–China signals despite no signed agreements and policy uncertainty. In Europe, rapeseed supply improved but stocks remain below multi-year averages due to low starting stocks and weak Ukraine imports; sunflower oil stayed strongest on a Ukraine/Russia crop deficit, with a potential correction starting and possibly accelerating in Dec–Jan ahead of Argentina’s crop.
21 Oct 2025
Oct. 21, 2025 - Sunflower deficit, biofuel uncertainty & palm oil outlook
Feiko and Gehrman break down key shifts in global oils: palm oil steadies amid Indonesia’s delayed B50 rollout and possible EUDR leeway, soybean oil gains on U.S. biodiesel demand, rapeseed supply improves with Canadian exports, and sunflower oil prices stay firm as Black Sea crops deteriorate. *This video is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars
8 Oct 2025
Oct. 7, 2025 - EUDR delay, canola oversupply and laurics oil update...
Join Maria Cruz and Gehrman Kosenkov for an in-depth discussion on global vegetable oil markets. From palm oil supply and EUDR benchmarks to U.S.–China soybean tensions, Canadian canola exports, and the latest sunflower and coconut oil trends—discover the key forces shaping prices and trade flows heading into Q4. *This video is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars
23 Sept 2025
Sept. 23, 2025 - Crops, harvest & market drivers
In this week's session, Vesper's oils and fats specialists, Gehrman Kosenkov and María Cruz Franco, will dive into the latest market updates, including: ➡️ Crop volumes for rapeseed, sunflower, and soybean ➡️ Progress on this year’s harvesting ➡️ Key market drivers: geopolitics, biofuel policies, supply & demand shifts, and more *This video is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want to join our live, interactive session? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars
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