Advisorpedia's The Week Ahead Podcast, Powered by Tematica Research

About Advisorpedia's The Week Ahead Podcast, Powered by Tematica Research

Join Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, from TematicaResearch as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Publisher

Douglas Heikkinen

Category

business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

1 Feb 2021

Latest episode

19 Jul 2021

Latest episodes

20 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   19 Jul 2021

   The Week Ahead: Is There Too Much Hope Priced Into the Market?

   Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week. Markets last week Bulls are dominating - latest Investor Intelligence poll up to 61.2% bull from 60.8% prior week Bears down to 15.3% from prior 15.5% Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK Seeing further signs of slowing in geographies that were the first to pull out of the pandemic: China’s GDP in Q2 rose 7.9% YoY, slower than the expected 8.1% increase, and 1.3% QoQ after rising 18.3% YoY and a downwardly revised 0.4% QoQ respectively in Q1. Global inflation remains tame: Italy’s Inflation Rate for June was unchanged with May’s 1.3% reading, matching expectations. DOMESTIC INFLATION Last week’s release of the Consumer Price Index for June found that prices rose 0.9% MoM, nearly 2x the expected 0.5% increase, and were up 5.4% YoY. Both the MoM and YoY increases were at their fastest pace since 2008. Ex-food and energy prices rose 4.5%, the fastest pace since November 1991 and well above the Fed’s 2.0% long-run target pace. RETAIL SALES STRONGER THAN EXPECTED Retail Sales for June came in stronger than expected for June, rising 0.6% MoM from a downwardly revised -1.7% contraction in May. JOBLESS CLAIMS Came in at 360k, slightly above expectations for 350k and prior week revised upward to 386k from 373k. Typical tight labor market has just over 200k. If companies are having such a tough time finding talent, why 2x on firings? Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK Monday - NAHB Housing market index Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts Thursday -  Weekly jobless claims (last week hit a pandemic low, but still well above 200k (ish) we should be seeing), Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales Friday - Markit Non Manufacturing PMI (flash), Markit Services PMI (flash) Coming up…. Monday, July 19: AutoNation (AN) - cars JB Hunt (JBHT) - west coast port issues Tuesday, July 20: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE) - food and drinking places crushed it in 2Q per Retail sales but input costs vs. price increases Netflix (NFLX) - growth in streamers esp outside the US, content spending, games United Airlines (UAL). Wednesday, July 21: Coca-Cola (KO)  - away from home and non sugar beverage demand Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - What is Vegas like baby? Thursday, July 22: DR Horton (DHI) - housing demand Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) - tough comps year over year - how is it navigating the return to dining out? Is it hitting its margins? forcing it to get more aggressive on deals to lure eaters? Friday, July 23 American Express (AXP) - spending - where, how much, US vs. Europe? Kimberly Clark (KMB) - last year was strong for paper products, but now what about the impact of lumber prices and the pricing envirnment vs. last year’s paper product shortage? Sensient (SXT) - watching to hear what this flavoring and color company has to say about non meat protein demand in the quarter and expectations as BYND re-launched its plant based chicken with Panda Express…. Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

2. 

   12 Jul 2021

   The Week Ahead: A Market in Search of Guidance

   Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week. Markets last week For all the talk of a booming equity market and bust in the bond market ... Net inflows into US bond funds outpacing those for comparable equity in 2021. Bond mutual funds and ETF added $372b as of June 23 v $160b for equities according to ICI Bond funds are on track to eclipse the $446b of inflows in 2020 Lagging advance/decline lines for Nasdaq Short-and medium-term oscillators have risen well into overbought territory. Russell 2000 has been in a sideways trading range/consolidation since March, h. Short-term indicators remain under downside pressure while medium-term measures wavering around neutral. Key Economic Data and Related Events Last Week Last week’s ISM non-manufacturing and Markit Services PMIs both declined sequentially and came in weaker-than-expected. Both the US and global indices indicated a peaking out of the year-over-year base effects, just as we have been suggesting would happen. This fits with the corresponding rally we have been witnessing in Treasuries, which is consistent with expectations for the economy starting to roll over. Last week the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their June meeting that rather rocked the markets. The minutes indicate that officials are pleased with the economic recovery and focused on the strong investment and increases in productivity but were dissatisfied with the progress in the labor market. When it comes to inflation half think the high current prices will end up being deflationary and half think they will be self-reinforcing high inflation. Several participants want to reduce mortgage-backed security purchases faster than Treasury bond purchases. Bottom line - this stuff is complicated and even the experts with all the data available right at their fingertips don’t agree and the market didn’t react noticeably once these minutes were released. Possibly one of the biggest pieces of news last week came from Wells Fargo (WFC) which announced it is closing all credit lines and will no longer be offering them. Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK July 13: Inflation, Monthly Federal Budget statement July 14: Producer Price Index; Fed Beige Book July 14-15: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell - Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the US House Committee on Financial Services July 15: Weekly jobless claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Import & Export Prices July 16: Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories, Net Capital Flows, Foreign Bond Investment JULY 31 - Debt ceiling suspension expires Last time we had an impasse on such the S&P 500 fell 6% in a month (July 2011) and didn’t get a solid breakout until December Earnings of note THIS WEEK Tuesday, July 13: Conagra (CAG) - tough YoY comps, how much is attributed to the reopening PepsiCo (PEP): away from home consumption of its beverages Wednesday, July 14: Delta Air Lines (DAL): outlook for 2H vs. 1H schedules, fares, butts in seats; international travel Thursday, July 15: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): comments will be closely Alcoa (AA) Friday, July 16: Ericsson (ERIC): 5G Kansas City Southern (KSU): June rail traffic was up 19% YoY - let’s see if KSU can translate that volume growth into operating leverage; also how it sees the Biden White House’s ramped up regulatory scrutiny of the rail industry playing out Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

3. 

   28 Jun 2021

   The Week Ahead: Has Economic Growth Peaked for the Year?

   Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week. Markets last week Last Thusday the Nasdaq closed up 0.7% for its 17th record high in 2021. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to make its 30th record close for the year and the Dow added nearly 1%. The long bond remained fairly steady at 2.1% while WTI crude rose back above $73 a barrel and gold dropped lower to $1,775 an ounce as the VIX fell below 16, near to its pandemic-period lows. Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK Probably the biggest news was that a bipartisan group of Senators came to an agreement with the Biden administration on a roughly $1T infrastructure plan $579b new spending $312b transport $10s b on water infrastructure, broadband, environmental remediation, power & electrical grid Funding from new IRS enforcement? Ugh $100b in public/private partnerships $65b in 5G wireless spectrum sales Less than 60 votes in total right now for it in the Senate Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK Tuesday, June 29: April FHFA Housing Price Index HOUSING April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index HOUSING June Consumer Confidence Wednesday, June 30: June ADP Employment Change Report + Friday’s (LABOR) June Chicago PMI - Markit’s from last week showed slowing (SLOWING) May Pending Home Sales HOUSING Thursday, July 1: Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims (LABOR) May Construction Spending (SLOWING) June ISM Manufacturing Index (SLOWING) Friday, July 2: June Employment Report (LABOR) May Factory Orders.  (SLOWING) Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins Related: The Week Ahead: Is the Market Too Confident?

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