Post-USDA report Reaction, Implications and Outlook, 1-12-21
Today's reports were bullish corn and soybeans, but that statement is not enough to properly determine price expectations for the next several weeks. Demand reduction was already set in motion by pre-report price levels. And, there was certainly a universal bullish expectation going into today's reports.
Today's podcast attempts to shift focus towards how producers should view demand implications from today's USDA data, and how that perspective may or may not conclude that current values offer sales opportunities.
13 Dec 2020
Ag Market Outlook, with Duane Lowry, 12-13-20
Prices are notably off their highs and it doesn't take much weakness to trigger liquidation pressures. South American weather is favorable/acceptable/improving. Conab is still projecting Brazil's soybean production potential to be similar to what it was at the beginning of the growing season. China is well supplied and their domestic prices and crush margins support that statement. China's negotiating stance with a new Biden administration might be strengthened with a slow purchase pace of US ag goods from here forward. A look at 2012 into 2013 is a sobering reminder to producers and speculators that supply-driven bull markets can end much earlier than participants expect. Lots to discuss today. Today is a must listen for producers who have become complacent with a "no sales" stance.
29 Nov 2020
Sunday Ag Market Outlook, 11-29-20, with Duane Lowry
South American weather remains the key fundamental focus and some concerns do exist. That said, there is a LOT of moisture in the 2-week outlook. As the forecasts begin to reach the Dec 15 timeframe, the marketplace tends to build confidence in South American production potential. IF the current 2-week moisture outlook verifies, traders will build confidence in overall production potential that will be very similar to pre-season expectations.
Downside risk in many commodity markets is very significant and deserves much more respect than most are currently willing to consider. Seasonal tendencies, near record overall spec ag market length, global economic concerns and unwinding of inflation bets could exert a lot of downward pressure on ag prices during the next 90 days. A key for this to occur will be whether or not today's moisture forecasts verify for South America during the next two weeks. If you bet with history, you should bet that the rains will arrive and overall South American production will be favorable.
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