Bitcoin’s Recovery Needs Fresh Demand | Ahead of the Curve
Bitcoin has shed much of its speculative leverage, but a durable recovery still needs buyers. Today’s U.S. inflation release puts the macro backdrop in focus as weak trading activity and exchange-traded product outflows weigh on demand. We examine what cautious futures and options positioning means for liquidation risk, assess Strategy’s preferred-share funding model against a simpler alternative, and explain why government Bitcoin transfers to Coinbase Prime do not establish an immediate sale. The episode draws on K33 Research’s October 13 report, updated with October 14 inflation figures, with producer prices the next scheduled checkpoint.
Read the full research at https://k33.com/research (https://k33.com/research).
9 Oct 2026
U.S. Bitcoin Transfers and AI Security Fears | Ahead of the Curve
The U.S. government moved more than 17,700 Bitcoin this week, including coins linked to the Bitfinex hack. Does this signal incoming selling pressure, or is it primarily a custody transfer? We examine the on-chain activity, the ongoing claims process, and where potential selling pressure could emerge.
Meanwhile, OpenAI's latest mathematical breakthroughs have reignited concerns about the security of Bitcoin's cryptography. We discuss the warnings from Ethereum researchers, the pushback from cryptography experts, and why there is currently no evidence of an actual vulnerability.
Plus, the U.S. Treasury withdraws proposed crypto mixing and self-hosted wallet rules, while Robinhood adds Bitcoin to its balance sheet and expands its crypto business.
Ahead of the Curve is produced by K33 Research.
Read more at https://k33.com/research (https://k33.com/research)
7 Oct 2026
Few Buyers, Even Fewer Sellers | Ahead of the Curve
Bitcoin is up nearly fifty percent from its lows, but market participation remains unusually quiet. In this episode of Ahead of the Curve, we look at why K33 Research sees seller exhaustion as the most important Bitcoin-specific factor in the market today.
We cover declining spot volumes, subdued derivatives positioning, the large concentration of Bitcoin around current cost bases, and why some holders may still sell as they return to breakeven. We also examine the case that Bitcoin already formed its cycle bottom in late June, and the main near-term counterweight from rising United States Treasury yields.
Read the full research at k33.com/research.
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