OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this. https://planned-obsolescence.org/openais-cbrn-tests-seem-unclear
20 Aug 2024
Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should be spending less time proving today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous: planned-obsolescence.org/dangerous-capability-tests-should-be-harder
10 Oct 2023
Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep will both improve rapidly: planned-obsolescence.org/scale-schlep-and-systems
29 Aug 2023
Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their forecasts now about 2024 and 2025: https://planned-obsolescence.org/language-models-surprised-us
6 Jun 2023
Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into developing new technologies.
1 May 2023
The costs of caution
Both AI fears and AI hopes rest on the belief that it may be possible to build alien minds that can do everything we can do and much more. AI-driven technological progress could save countless lives and make everyone massively healthier and wealthier: https://planned-obsolescence.org/the-costs-of-caution
12 Apr 2023
Continuous doesn't mean slow
Once a lab trains AI that can fully replace its human employees, it will be able to multiply its workforce 100,000x. If these AIs do AI research, they could develop vastly superhuman systems in under a year: https://planned-obsolescence.org/continuous-doesnt-mean-slow
4 Apr 2023
AIs accelerating AI research
Researchers could potentially design the next generation of ML models more quickly by delegating some work to existing models, creating a feedback loop of ever-accelerating progress. https://planned-obsolescence.org/ais-accelerating-ai-research
30 Mar 2023
Is it time for a pause?
The single most important thing we can do is to pause when the next model we train would be powerful enough to obsolete humans entirely. If it were up to me, I would slow down AI development starting now — and then later slow down even more: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/is-it-time-for-a-pause/
27 Mar 2023
"Aligned" shouldn't be a synonym for "good"
Perfect alignment just means that AI systems won’t want to deliberately disregard their designers' intent; it's not enough to ensure AI is good for the world: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/aligned-vs-good/
27 Mar 2023
Alignment researchers disagree a lot
Many fellow alignment researchers may be operating under radically different assumptions from you: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/disagreement-in-alignment/
27 Mar 2023
What we're doing here
We’re trying to think ahead to a possible future in which AI is making all the most important decisions: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/what-were-doing-here/
27 Mar 2023
Training AIs to help us align AIs
If we can accurately recognize good performance on alignment, we could elicit lots of useful alignment work from our models, even if they're playing the training game: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/training-ais-to-help-us-align-ais/
27 Mar 2023
The ethics of AI red-teaming
If we’ve decided we’re collectively fine with unleashing millions of spam bots, then the least we can do is actually study what they can – and can’t – do: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/ethics-of-red-teaming/
27 Mar 2023
Situational awareness
AI systems that have a precise understanding of how they’ll be evaluated and what behavior we want them to display will earn more reward than AI systems that don’t: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/situational-awareness/
27 Mar 2023
Playing the training game
We're creating incentives for AI systems to make their behavior look as desirable as possible, while intentionally disregarding human intent when that conflicts with maximizing reward: https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/the-training-game/
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