The true crime cases making headlines, broken down by someone who's covered them from inside the courtroom. Independent journalist and courtroom reporter Marta Dhanis brings over two decades of reporting, from New York courtrooms to global news events, to the biggest stories in justice and power on both sides of the Atlantic.
atlanticlens.substack.com (https://atlanticlens.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast)
Nostradamus of US Elections on the 2026 US Midterms: Can Democrats Check Trump?
What happens if Democrats win control of Congress on November 3, and would it be enough to constrain Donald Trump?
In this episode of Atlantic Lens, I speak with Allan Lichtman (https://substack.com/profile/322534092-allan-lichtman), the historian and presidential election forecaster known for his unconventional approach to predicting American elections and often dubbed the ‘Nostradamus’ of U.S. elections.
Lichtman predicts that Democrats have more than a 90% chance of retaking the House of Representatives and roughly a two-thirds chance of winning the Senate. But there is an important caveat: his famous 13 Keys to the White House model is designed to predict presidential elections, not midterms. His forecast for this election draws instead on historical patterns, polling and decades of observing American politics.
We discuss what is driving the 2026 midterms, whether the election is primarily a referendum on Trump or a test of the Democratic Party’s ability to offer voters a compelling alternative, and what a Democratic victory could - and could not - change in Washington.
Lichtman argues that even if Democrats take back both chambers of Congress, Trump’s expansive view of presidential power may prove difficult to constrain. A new congressional majority could investigate the administration and intensify oversight, but it would not automatically halt the president’s agenda.
We discuss:• The midterm forecast: Why Lichtman expects Democrats to make major gains.• Trump and presidential power: Why winning Congress may not be enough to constrain the president's expansive view of executive authority.• American democracy: Why Lichtman believes the country is at a critical moment, and what a Democratic victory could change.• The Democratic Party: Whether the election is primarily a referendum on Trump or a test of the opposition's ability to offer voters a compelling alternative.• The road to 2028: What the midterms could signal about the next presidential election and the future of American politics.
READ THE ACCOMPANYING ARTICLE:
America’s Midterms: Can a Democratic Victory Actually Constrain Trump? (https://atlanticlens.substack.com/p/83dcb215-db73-4546-81fd-6dca5482cc31)
Get full access to Atlantic Lens by Marta Dhanis at atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribe (https://atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)
9 Sept 2026
Lindsay Clancy: What the Jurors’ Bombshell Interview Reveals About the Holdout
Three jurors from the Lindsay Clancy murder trial, including the jury foreperson, have spoken publicly about the deliberations that ended in an 11-1 deadlock and a mistrial.
According to the jurors, the lone holdout admitted he had “reasonable doubt” but still refused to find Clancy not guilty by reason of insanity.
So what happened inside that jury room?
In this episode, journalist Marta Dhanis examines:
What the three jurors revealed about the deliberations
Why the holdout juror's alleged comments are so significant
The difference between a legal judgment and a moral one
How Massachusetts law handles lack of criminal responsibility
Why the prosecution - not the defense - had the burden of proof
What Clancy's lawyers tried to do while deliberations were underway
Why courts are reluctant to investigate or remove deliberating jurors
Whether these new revelations could have any legal consequences now that the jury has been discharged
The Lindsay Clancy trial raised one of the most difficult questions in criminal law: Can jurors separate the horror of a crime from the precise legal question they are required to answer?
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Get full access to Atlantic Lens by Marta Dhanis at atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribe (https://atlanticlens.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)
1 Sept 2026
Why I Changed My Mind About Lindsay Clancy
When I first started following the Lindsay Clancy trial, I didn’t believe she could successfully argue that she was not criminally responsible for killing her three children.
The facts appeared, at least on the surface, to show an organized sequence of deliberate actions. How could someone plan, communicate normally, send her husband out of the house and then carry out such an unimaginable act without understanding what she was doing?
But after following five weeks of testimony and evidence, I changed my mind.
In this episode of Atlantic Lens, I examine the evidence that forced me to reconsider my initial reaction - and the difficult question now facing the jury: what does it actually mean to be criminally responsible for an act when severe mental illness may have fundamentally altered a person’s perception of reality?
I explore:
* Why the Lindsay Clancy case is not fundamentally about whether she killed her children
* The legal standard for criminal responsibility in Massachusetts
* The prosecution’s argument that depression and suicidality do not necessarily equal psychosis
* The psychiatric evidence presented by the defense
* Why psychosis does not necessarily look the way we imagine it does
* Whether a person can appear organized while experiencing a profoundly distorted reality
* The powerful testimony of Lindsay Clancy’s former husband, Patrick
* Why the jury asked to review prescription medication bottles and evidence connected to Clancy’s suicide attempt
* And the uncomfortable question at the heart of this case: Does organized behavior necessarily mean a person was sane?
This is an examination of how, and why, the evidence in this case changed my own mind.
As the jury deliberates, one thing has become increasingly clear to me: the most difficult question in this trial isn’t what Lindsay Clancy did, but rather whether any of us can truly reconstruct what was happening inside her mind at one precise and catastrophic moment in time.
A mind can appear organized from the outside while reality has already collapsed within it.
Atlantic Lens is an independent podcast and publication examining the stories behind the headlines, at the intersection of justice and power. Subscribe to Atlantic Lens for independent analysis that goes beyond the obvious.
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