Before the Bell Podcast with Roman & Zain gives you the market insights you need to start your day. Each episode breaks down stock market trends, economic news, and investing strategies in a clear and approachable way. Whether you’re new to finance or a seasoned investor, Roman & Zain help you stay informed, confident, and ready for the opening bell.
The Market Prices a Hike, Walmart Breaks a Six-Year Streak, and Warsh Takes the Stage
The debate is over as money markets have now fully priced a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. Roman breaks down the July PCE print showing core inflation stuck at 3.3% alongside stalled consumer spending, and why that specific combination sealed the hawkish case. Walmart posted its slowest US comparable sales growth in six years and fell 9%, with management naming $4 gasoline as the direct cause, while off-price retailer Ross beat and jumped 7%, a textbook consumer trade-down signal. Plus: consumer confidence falls to a seven-month low with expectations collapsing 7.8%, Trump shifts to "economic warfare" on Iran with new Treasury sanctions, Canada retaliates with tariffs on $20 billion of US goods effective September 8th, gold notches a fifth straight weekly gain, Nvidia reports tonight in the AI trade's biggest test of the quarter, and Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday with the bond market that punished him after July watching closely.
19 Aug 2026
The Bond Market Breaks 5.3%, Hormuz Talks Expire, and the SPR Hits a 44-Year Low
The story quickly moved out of the stock market and into the bond market this week. Roman breaks down the 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.34%, its highest since 2007 in a synchronized global selloff that also pushed Japanese, German, French, and UK long-term borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, driven by sticky inflation, a $432 billion July deficit, and an AI-financed corporate borrowing wave competing directly with the Treasury for capital. Meanwhile the 60-day US-Iran negotiating window expired Monday with no deal and no new talks planned, two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982 leaving America's oil shock absorber dangerously thin. Plus: Home Depot beats but calls housing "frozen," retail earnings test the consumer, gas prices run 29% above last year, and this morning's Treasury intervention in the long end of the curve.
12 Aug 2026
CPI Cools to 3.4%, Payrolls Contract, and Hormuz Becomes a Reparations Fight
This morning's July CPI print landed exactly on consensus as headline inflation cooled to 3.4%, core to 2.5%, with shelter accounting for two-thirds of the monthly increase. Roman breaks down why that's better news for the Fed's arithmetic than for anyone's household budget: inflation is still outpacing wage growth at 3.2%, and average hourly earnings actually fell over the past year. Meanwhile, the July jobs report showed the American economy shed 23,000 positions, the first outright contraction of the cycle, cutting September rate hike odds from 67% to 52%, even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack publicly argues "now is the time to act." Plus: the Hormuz standoff deteriorates into a war reparations fight as Iran rules out negotiations and the US Navy fires on a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman, CoreWeave jumps 18% and Super Micro 9% on strong AI infrastructure results, On Holding posts its worst day on record, and a full recap of a week that started at record highs and faded for four straight sessions on a single variable.
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