Bettor Off Dead

About Bettor Off Dead

Hi, I am Toad. I am an autistic sports bettor with no regard for my well-being! I provide daily detailed analysis of all of the major sports and give out my best plays. It's free gold, baby. Find me on YouTube at ToadStool Sports and Instagram and Twitter at LearnToToad.

Publisher

Toad

Category

sports

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

27 Jun 2025

Latest episode

31 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

579 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   31 Oct 2026

   Why NFL Teams Should Go For 2 Down 8 | If You Disagree, You Don't Understand Math

   (00:00:00) Why NFL Teams Should Go For 2 Down 8 | If You Disagree, You Don't Understand Math (00:01:15) The simplified assumptions (2-pt = 50/50, PAT = 100%, OT = 50/50) (00:02:29) Go for 2 on the first touchdown: 50/50 to win right there (00:02:56) Kick both extra points: tie game, overtime coin flip (00:03:14) Why going for 2 first beats playing for overtime (00:04:03) Miss the first one? Still a 25% path to win (00:04:45) 50% to 62.5% in the simplified example (00:05:05) Real world: still about a 3-4% edge (00:05:38) The "mental state" argument Why NFL teams should go for 2 when they're down 8 late. Carolina went for 2 on Thursday Night Football against the Packers after scoring to make it 27-19 with 5:37 left, and the debate is back. I break down, as simply as I can, why going for two on the first of the two touchdowns gives you a better chance to win than kicking and playing for overtime. Simplified example: the team scores both touchdowns, every 2-point try is 50/50, the extra point is 100%, overtime is 50/50. Kicking both gets you a 50% shot in OT. Going for 2 first takes it to 62.5% in this extreme example. In the real world it's not that clean, but it's still roughly a 3-4% boost to your chances to win. Full video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFS0ZCQfdTc) X/IG: @LearnToToad | www.linktree.com/learntotoad (http://www.linktree.com/learntotoad)

2. 

   30 Oct 2026

   College Basketball Preview 2026-27 | Duke Is OVERVALUED?! | NCAAB Futures Picks

   (00:00:00) Season starts Sunday: hunting futures value (00:02:34) Show open: College Basketball Preview (00:03:31) ACC: Duke -136, Louisville +425 value, Clemson falling off (00:05:56) Big 12: Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech long shot (00:10:42) Big East: UConn, St. John's, Marquette +640 (+ UNC aside) (00:14:50) Providence +1800 and how to hedge futures (00:16:40) Big Ten: Illinois, Michigan State +465 value (00:19:16) Defending champ Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, Purdue (00:23:20) SEC: Florida +112, Alabama, Texas +850 value (00:26:12) Vanderbilt, Kentucky +1950, Auburn long shot (00:27:51) National title odds vs KenPom preseason top 10 (00:30:28) Duke and UConn overvalued? Florida 6-1 (00:32:08) Title value: Michigan State 18-1, Texas 19-1 (00:33:13) Houston, Kansas 30-1, Gonzaga, Kentucky (00:34:57) Iowa State + defending champ Michigan at 40-1 (00:36:44) March Madness expansion rant: "64 teams is perfect" (00:37:24) Wrap-up: Sunday college hoops + CFB show tonight College basketball preview 2026-27: NCAAB futures picks and value plays before the season tips off Sunday. I go conference by conference through the power-conference odds (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, SEC), then the national championship odds against KenPom's preseason rankings. Is Duke overvalued as the title favorite? Is UConn? Why is defending champ Michigan 40-1? Plus where the value is on Texas, Michigan State, Kansas, Marquette and Providence, and a rant on March Madness expansion. Heads up: I'm a game-by-game handicapper, so take futures with a grain of salt. Odds are the ones on screen during the show (Fri 10/30) and will move. 💰 FUTURES VALUE PICKS Conference winners: 🏀 Texas to win the SEC +850 🏀 Michigan State to win the Big Ten +465 🏀 Marquette to win the Big East +640 🏀 Providence to win the Big East +1800 🏀 Big 12: Houston +350 or Texas Tech +840 🏀 ACC: Louisville +425 for value (I still think Duke wins it) Long shots I don't hate: Kentucky SEC +1950, Ohio State Big Ten 13-1, maybe some value on Auburn SEC +2450 National championship: 🏀 Michigan State 18-1 🏀 Texas 19-1 🏀 Kansas 30-1 Florida 6-1 is fine too. Fades: Duke +550, UConn 12-1, Illinois 14-1. KenPom value flags: Houston 28-1, Iowa State 37-1, Michigan 40-1. CHAPTERS 00:00 Season starts Sunday: hunting futures value 02:34 Show open: College Basketball Preview 03:31 ACC: Duke -136, Louisville +425 value, Clemson falling off 05:56 Big 12: Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech long shot 10:42 Big East: UConn, St. John's, Marquette +640 (+ UNC aside) 14:50 Providence +1800 and how to hedge futures 16:40 Big Ten: Illinois, Michigan State +465 value 19:16 Defending champ Michigan, UCLA, Ohio State, Purdue 23:20 SEC: Florida +112, Alabama, Texas +850 value 26:12 Vanderbilt, Kentucky +1950, Auburn long shot 27:51 National title odds vs KenPom preseason top 10 30:28 Duke and UConn overvalued? Florida 6-1 32:08 Title value: Michigan State 18-1, Texas 19-1 33:13 Houston, Kansas 30-1, Gonzaga, Kentucky 34:57 Iowa State + defending champ Michigan at 40-1 36:44 March Madness expansion rant: "64 teams is perfect" 37:24 Wrap-up: Sunday college hoops + CFB show tonight 🎧 Audio: Spreaker, Spotify & Apple Podcasts 🔗 www.linktree.com/learntotoad (http://www.linktree.com/learntotoad) | www.patreon.com/learntotoad (http://www.patreon.com/learntotoad) X/IG/TT: @LearnToToad #CollegeBasketball #NCAAB #MarchMadness #NCAABPicks #SportsBetting

3. 

   30 Oct 2026

   Best Bets Today | NBA Cup Tips Off Tonight?! | NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Friday

   (00:00:00) Best Bets Today | NBA Cup Tips Off Tonight?! | NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Friday (00:02:17) Today's card: NBA Cup begins (00:03:25) Show open / intro (00:04:51) NHL: Devils @ Golden Knights (lean New Jersey) (00:06:58) Jets @ Panthers (lean Winnipeg) (00:10:24) Kraken @ Flames (prefer Calgary, pass) (00:11:57) NBA Cup: how to handicap Cup games (00:13:00) Hornets @ Wizards (slight lean Washington) (00:15:54) Bulls @ Celtics (lean Boston -15.5) (00:19:54) Pistons @ Nets (BEST BET Detroit -8.5) (00:22:45) Knicks @ 76ers (lean Knicks) (00:27:27) Magic @ Raptors (lean Orlando +5.5) (00:31:13) Hydration break (00:33:33) Pacers @ Heat (BEST BET Miami -8.5) (00:37:46) Rockets @ Mavericks (lean Houston) (00:42:05) Clippers @ Timberwolves (lean Clippers +pts) (00:44:39) Lakers @ Warriors (lean Lakers) (00:47:49) Nuggets @ Suns (lean Denver) (00:49:11) CFB: Tulane @ Charlotte (slight lean Tulane) (00:53:48) Baylor @ UCF (BEST BET Baylor -1.5) (01:03:23) Kent State @ Sacramento State (lean under / Sac State) (01:09:52) Wrap-up: three best bets NBA Cup best bets today: the NBA Cup group stage tips off with two NBA favorites on the card, Detroit Pistons -8.5 at Brooklyn and Miami Heat -8.5 vs Indiana, plus a college football best bet on Baylor -1.5 at UCF after the Bears fired their coach. Also a 1-2 recap of Thursday (Dream cashed, Blackhawks and Panthers lost), all 10 NBA Cup games, three NHL games and three Friday night CFB games. ✅ TODAY'S BEST BETS 🏀 Pistons -8.5 at Nets (NBA Cup, 7:30 PM ET): major flat spot for Brooklyn after taking Boston to overtime as a 12-point dog and falling just short; Detroit is still way better even without Duren, and comes off an ugly-looking win over Charlotte. 🏀 Heat -8.5 vs Pacers (NBA Cup, 8 PM ET): Indiana's second game without Haliburton, off a huge effort in a near-upset of the Sixers; Miami finally got its first win. Nobody wants to lay 8.5 with a 1-4 team, and that's exactly why. 84% of the cash on Miami. 🏈 Baylor -1.5 at UCF (ESPN, 7:30 PM ET; moneyline also fine): fired-coach spark for Baylor (the DC takes over, so the defense stays the same) and a massive letdown spot for UCF after the double-OT upset of BYU. Leans only (not best bets): 🏒 NHL: Winnipeg at Florida (strongest NHL lean; +1.5 puck line / some ML), Devils at Vegas, Calgary over Seattle (pass) 🏀 NBA Cup: Celtics -15.5 vs Bulls (closest to a play), Knicks at 76ers (better if Brown plays), Magic +5.5 at Raptors, Lakers at Warriors (too public to play), Rockets at Mavericks, Clippers +pts at Minnesota, Nuggets at Suns, Wizards (slight) vs Hornets 🏈 CFB: Tulane over Charlotte (slight), Kent State at Sacramento State: under 46.5 / Sac State +pts Friday slate (all times ET): 🏀 NBA Cup Group Play: Hornets @ Wizards 7; Bulls @ Celtics, Pistons @ Nets, Knicks @ 76ers (Prime), Magic @ Raptors 7:30; Pacers @ Heat, Rockets @ Mavericks, Clippers @ Timberwolves 8; Lakers @ Warriors (Prime), Nuggets @ Suns 10 🏒 NHL: Devils @ Golden Knights 6; Jets @ Panthers 7; Kraken @ Flames 8 🏈 CFB: Tulane @ Charlotte 7 (ESPN2); Baylor @ UCF 7:30 (ESPN); Kent State @ Sacramento State 10:30 (ESPN2) 0:00 Thursday recap: 1-2 (Dream cashed) + Blues and Troy leans hit 2:17 Today's card: NBA Cup begins 3:25 Show open / intro 4:51 NHL: Devils @ Golden Knights (lean New Jersey) 6:58 Jets @ Panthers (lean Winnipeg) 10:24 Kraken @ Flames (prefer Calgary, pass) 11:57 NBA Cup: how to handicap Cup games 13:00 Hornets @ Wizards (slight lean Washington) 15:54 Bulls @ Celtics (lean Boston -15.5) 19:54 Pistons @ Nets (BEST BET Detroit -8.5) 22:45 Knicks @ 76ers (lean Knicks) 27:27 Magic @ Raptors (lean Orlando +5.5) 31:13 Hydration break 33:33 Pacers @ Heat (BEST BET Miami -8.5)<br...

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Spotify

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