Coffee and Conflict brings you in-depth conversations with leading authors, offering fresh insights into today’s most pressing national security, foreign policy, and intelligence challenges. Hosted by Joshua Huminski, Senior Fellow at the National Security Institute and Senior Vice President for National Security and Intelligence Programs at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress, each episode delves into key global issues through the lens of recently published books.
In Season 1, Coffee and Conflict explores critical topics, including the war in Ukraine, the evolving defense strategies of the 21st century, and the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China. Tune in every two weeks for engaging discussions that unpack these complex dynamics and their impact on the global stage.
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Season 2 Episode 9 - The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America by Dr. Anthony Vinci
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Anthony Vinci, author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America, to examine how intelligence has moved from a government function to something that now permeates everyday life. Vinci traces the evolution from earlier intelligence eras to what he describes as a fourth revolution, where AI, data, and global competition with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are reshaping espionage in real time. The conversation explores how this new environment blurs the line between state and society, why individuals have become both targets and participants in intelligence collection, and whether the U.S. intelligence community is prepared for a landscape that is expanding faster than its traditional structures.
Is the intelligence community structured to keep up with an AI-driven environment that is evolving faster than its institutions? What role should Congress, oversight, and private companies play as intelligence expands beyond traditional government boundaries? And as counterintelligence threats move into the digital and civic space, what does an information-resilient society look like and how will the role of the intelligence officer evolve in the years ahead?
You can learn more about The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250370907/thefourthintelligencerevolution/ (https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250370907/thefourthintelligencerevolution/)
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski
@anthonyjvinci
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*Note: This episode was recorded on February 11, 2026
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19 Mar 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 8 - Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III with Madeline Hart
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Madeline Hart, co-author of Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III, to examine the argument that the United States is already in a kind of undeclared emergency and whether its defense industrial base is prepared for what comes next. Hart traces how the U.S. moved from a system that once powered wartime production and Cold War competition to one that is increasingly disconnected from the speed and innovation of the commercial economy, and explains why rebuilding that link is central to deterrence. The conversation also explores the growing role of nontraditional defense companies, the tension between innovation and bureaucracy, and what it would take to move from a peacetime footing to something more responsive.
If this is a call to “mobilize,” how urgent is the situation really, and how did the United States get here? Why has the defense industrial base drifted so far from the commercial economy, and what is standing in the way of bringing them back together? And as innovation shifts toward nontraditional companies, what does the right balance look like between government and industry to ensure new technologies can actually be integrated and delivered to the warfighter?
You can learn more about The American Edge, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/Mobilize-Reboot-American-Industrial-World/dp/B0FQWGC94Z (https://www.amazon.com/Mobilize-Reboot-American-Industrial-World/dp/B0FQWGC94Z)
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@joshuachuminski
@Madeline_Zimm
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*Note: This episode was recorded on March 9, 2026
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5 Mar 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 7 - The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance with Dr. Seth Jones
Joshua Huminski interviews Dr. Seth G. Jones about the U.S. defense industrial base and its readiness for great-power competition.
19 Feb 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 6 - Rebel Russia: Dissent and Protest from the Tsars to Navalny with Anna Arutunyan
Author Anna Arutunyan discusses Russia's history of rebellion and dissent with Joshua Huminski, examining the cycles of repression and reform from the Tsars to Navalny in this interview.
5 Feb 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 5 - How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory with Franz-Stefan Gady
Season 2 Episode 5 - How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory with Franz-Stefan Gady
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Franz-Stefan Gady, author of How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory, to examine how Washington imagines a future conflict with the People’s Republic of China—and why those assumptions may be dangerously flawed. Gady breaks down the core features of the American way of war, from reliance on information superiority and air dominance to expectations of a short, decisive campaign, and explains why those advantages can no longer be taken for granted. Drawing on U.S. doctrine, force structure, and PLA adaptation over the past three decades, he argues that a conflict over Taiwan is far more likely to resemble a protracted, multi-domain war of attrition.
How has the PLA learned from decades of observing American military overmatch, from Iraq to Ukraine? Does the United States clearly understand PRC redlines—and do Chinese leaders understand ours? And is the U.S. military, its industrial base, and its political system prepared to generate and sustain the mass required for a long war with China?
You can learn more about How the United States Would Fight China, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/how-the-united-states-would-fight-china-9780197838303 (https://global.oup.com/academic/product/how-the-united-states-would-fight-china-9780197838303).
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@joshuachuminski
@HoansSolo
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*Note: This episode was recorded on December 4, 2025
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22 Jan 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 4 - First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World with Emma Ashford
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Emma Ashford, author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World, to unpack what it means for the United States to operate in an international system it no longer dominates alone. Ashford traces how post–Cold War triumphalism gave way to today’s multipolar reality, explains when the U.S. unipolar moment truly began to fade, and lays out her case for a more pragmatic grand strategy rooted in what she calls “realist internationalism.” The conversation explores how this framework differs from both traditional realism and liberal internationalism, and what it would ask Washington to prioritize—and reconsider—as global power continues to diffuse.
What would realist internationalism look like in practice for U.S. policymakers? Can the United States pursue a narrower, interest-based foreign policy while maintaining an open economic strategy with allies and partners? And as Washington adjusts to a world among equals, how should it engage Europe and rising second-tier powers like India, Turkey, and Germany?
You can learn more about First Among Equals, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300279542/first-among-equals/ (https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300279542/first-among-equals/).
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@joshuachuminski
@EmmaMAshford
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*Note: This episode was recorded November 18, 2025
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8 Jan 2026TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 3 - The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon with Ankit Panda
Starting off the year with a nuclear bang, Joshua Huminski is joined by Ankit Panda, author of The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon, to unpack why nuclear weapons are once again at the center of global statecraft—and why today’s risks don’t map neatly onto the Cold War playbook. Panda explains what defines this new nuclear age, how a more crowded and technologically complex nuclear landscape is reshaping deterrence, and why the erosion of arms control has left the world with fewer guardrails at exactly the wrong time.
Can Washington, Moscow, and Beijing realistically sit down to discuss arms control in a nuclear “trilemma”? Is the United States being forced to relearn deterrence lessons that atrophied after decades of strategic focus elsewhere? How is Europe grappling with nuclear threats from Russia while navigating uncertainty around long-term U.S. guarantees? And looking ahead, how does this nuclear age end—and what might a fourth nuclear age look like?
You can learn more about The New Nuclear Age, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-new-nuclear-age-at-the-precipice-of-armageddon--9781509557462 (https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-new-nuclear-age-at-the-precipice-of-armageddon--9781509557462).
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski
@nktpnd
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18 Dec 2025TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 2 - Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World with Mark Galeotti
Season 2 Episode 2 - Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World with Mark Galeotti
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Mark Galeotti, author of Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World, to examine how organised crime shapes, and is shaped by, the modern state. Galeotti unpacks what “organised crime” actually is, why the boundary between the “upper world” and “underworld” is often thinner than we think, and how criminal networks adapt faster than governments to new technologies, new markets, and new enforcement tactics.
At what point does organised crime become so entrenched that the state has no choice but to confront it, or quietly accommodate it? How should law enforcement balance today’s threats with tomorrow’s high-tech criminal landscape? And should organised crime be treated as a core national security issue alongside defense and foreign policy, and if we did, how would it change the way we make policy?
You can learn more about Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/445951/homo-criminalis-by-galeotti-mark/9781529148220.
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@joshuachuminski
@MarkGaleotti
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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/JMPZDUk6VLo
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4 Dec 2025TRANSCRIPT
Season 2 Episode 1: War in the Smartphone Age: Conflict, Connectivity and the Crises at Our Fingertips with Dr. Matthew Ford
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Dr. Matthew Ford to explore the ideas behind War in the Smartphone Age and what it means for how we understand and fight modern wars. Ford breaks down how smartphones and the digital “stack” have reshaped power on today’s battlefields, from Ukraine to Gaza, and how constant connectivity blurs the line between combatant and observer. He examines how viral videos and endless imagery can distort our sense of winning and losing, how participatory war draws civilians into the fight, and what this means for militaries trying to keep pace with hyper-connected conflict.
What responsibilities do technology companies carry when their platforms and infrastructure are now deeply embedded in warfare? Has the smartphone narrowed, or widened, the gap between advanced militaries and insurgent groups? And looking ahead, how might these dynamics shape great-power conflict and the decisions of future defense leaders?
You can learn more about War in the Smartphone Age: Conflict, Connectivity and the Crises at Our Fingertips, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/War-Smartphone-Age-Connectivity-Fingertips/dp/0197829848 (https://www.amazon.com/War-Smartphone-Age-Connectivity-Fingertips/dp/0197829848).
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski
@warmatters
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26 Mar 2025TRANSCRIPT
Special Episode: Coffee & Conflict Interview with General H.R. McMaster
Joshua Huminski interviews General H.R. McMaster (ret.) about the challenges posed by the emerging axis of aggressors and the need for strategic empathy to understand adversaries.
19 Dec 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 8: Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security with Sherri Goodman
Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Sherri Goodman explores how climate change serves as a threat multiplier in national security, shaping U.S. military strategy and global security dynamics, and offers guidance for climate readiness in defense planning.
5 Dec 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 7: Heart of War: Misadventures in the Pentagon with Kathleen McInnis
Kathleen McInnis, Director of the Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative, shares her insider perspective on Pentagon bureaucracy, moral dilemmas, and the challenges faced by women in defense policy.
21 Nov 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 6: God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America with Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware
Joshua Huminski sits down with Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware to explore the rise of far-right terrorism in America and its threat to democracy, offering practical strategies to counter this growing threat.
7 Nov 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 5: Who will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent with Keir Giles
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski sits down with Keir Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe?, to tackle Europe’s defense dilemma in a world marked by resurgent threats. They discuss why Europe’s decades-long reliance on the United States has left it vulnerable, and why, with a distracted and divided America, the continent must rethink its approach to security. Giles unpacks NATO’s current challenges, the EU’s potential role in defense, and what new leadership in Europe might look like.
How can European nations and NATO balance immediate threats from Russia with long-term defense needs while supporting Ukraine? How has Europe’s shifting leadership affected its response to Russian aggression amid changing U.S. priorities and internal instability? How can NATO and Europe deter both conventional and hybrid Russian threats while avoiding escalation and maintaining alliance unity?
You an learn more about Who will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/Who-Will-Defend-Europe-Continent/dp/1911723480
And read more of Keir’s work on strategies to deter Russian aggression here: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/21-09-23-what-deters-russia-giles.pdf
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@KeirGiles from @ChathamHouse
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24 Oct 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 4: Lost Decade - The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power with Richard Fontaine
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski speaks with Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, about his book The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power. They dive into the historic shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Asia, and evaluate its successes and shortcomings more than a decade later. They also explore why the Indo-Pacific is now central to global power dynamics, how the U.S. can craft a more coherent approach to the region, and what it means for American security and the future of the international order.
What was the U.S. Pivot to Asia, and how did its strategic theory align with public and international expectations, including reactions from Europe and the Middle East? How did China’s actions between 2011-2021 influence U.S. national security and shape the broader geopolitical landscape during the Pivot to Asia? Looking at the present, where has the Pivot been successful, and what would a truly effective U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific look like moving forward?
You can learn more about Lost Decade - The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/Lost-Decade-Pivot-Chinese-Power/dp/0197677940
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@RHFontaine from @CNASdc
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10 Oct 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 3: Downfall: Prigozhin, Putin, and the New Future of Russia with Mark Galeotti and Anna Arutunyan
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski speaks with Mark Galeotti and Anna Aruntunyan about their new book Downfall: Prigozhin, Putin, and the New Future of Russia. They examine the rise and fall of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, his failed coup against Putin, and his mysterious death in a plane crash. Through in-depth research, they explore Prigozhin's criminal past, his role in the war in Ukraine, and the political chaos under Putin, offering insight into Russia's uncertain future post-Prigozhin.
How do figures like Yevgeny Prigozhin and other "mini-garchs" maintain influence in Putin’s regime, and what does their rise and fall reveal about Russia's stability? How has Russia’s reliance on private actors like the Wagner Group shaped its domestic policies and global actions? How does the Western belief that Russia only responds to strength interact with the fragility of its autocratic system, potentially fueling increased paranoia and aggression?
You can learn more about Downfall: Prigozhin, Putin, and the New Future of Russia, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/Downfall-Prigozhin-Putin-future-Russia/dp/1529927366
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@MarkGaleotti from @UCLSSEES, @RUSI_org, and @IIR_Prague
@scrawnya from @TheWilsonCenter, @kennaninstitute
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26 Sept 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 2: The War for Ukraine with Major General Mick Ryan (Ret’d) AM
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Major General Mick Ryan (Ret’d) AM, Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to discuss his new book, The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. Ryan argues that the Russia-Ukraine war highlights the crucial role of sound strategy and adaptability in determining military success. He emphasizes how both nations’ pre-war reforms and their ability to adjust tactics during the conflict, alongside strong leadership and institutional learning, are vital lessons for strategists and policymakers.
How can the U.S. and NATO evolve their support for Ukraine from defense to a strategy aimed at securing victory in the conflict? Is the West's current risk tolerance and strategic imagination sufficient to confront authoritarian regimes like Russia and China? Has the Russia-Ukraine war redefined Europe's strategic environment, and how should the West respond to this new geopolitical reality?
You can learn more about The War for Ukraine, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-Strategy-Adaptation-Under/dp/1682479528
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@WarintheFuture from @LowyInstitute
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12 Sept 2024TRANSCRIPT
Episode 1: World on the Brink with Dmitri Alperovitch
Episode 1: World on the Brink with Dmitri Alperovitch
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Dmitri Alperovitch, NSI Advisory Board member and Chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, to discuss his new book, World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century. Alperovitch argues that the U.S. is already in a new Cold War with China, with Taiwan as a potential flashpoint. He outlines a strategy to deter conflict while ensuring America's primacy against a rising China.
How likely is broader conflict in the Taiwan Strait region, starting with an invasion of Taiwan by China? Should we begin viewing our relationship with China through the lens of a new era of strategic competition? Is the U.S. prepared for this evolving geopolitical landscape?
You can learn more about World on the Brink and purchase a copy of the book here: https://worldonthebrink.com/
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@DAlperovitch from @SilveradoPolicy
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11 Sept 2024TRANSCRIPT
Teaser Episode: Introducing Coffee and Conflict a National Security Institute Podcast
Check out a preview from the first episode of NSI's latest podcast Coffee and Conflict. The clip features Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator and NSI Advisory Board member, discussing his latest book, World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.
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Inside a recent episode
Season 2 Episode 9 - The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America by Dr. Anthony Vinci
Published 2 Apr 2026 · Transcript excerpt
[…] And so satellites, for example, during the Cold War or was network intelligence like social network analysis post 9 -Eleven today, it's artificial intelligence is driving. And those two factors have really led us down this path. And this new revolution is characterized by by three things because of those adversaries in this new technology. One is that intelligence, the scope of intelligence is expanding because the scope of competition is expanding. The U .S. and China compete economically. We compete over science and technology. We compete in other things versus historically, typically intelligence was about competing politically and militarily. […]
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