Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. <br/><br/><a href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">decisiondeskhq.substack.com</a>
Decision Desk HQ Podcast
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41 episodes
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Podcast Overview
Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. <br/><br/><a href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">decisiondeskhq.substack.com</a>
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8/20/2025
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Recent Episodes
June 18, 2026
Episode 34: What NYC's Primaries Can Tell Us About Democrats in 2028, with Michael Lange of The Narrative Wars
<p>Among the most-watched races on June 23 will be a group of four Democratic primaries in solidly blue New York City-based U.S. House districts. These contests feature ideological splits and/or highly salient issues that could say as much about where Democrats will be in 2028 as they do about the party in 2026. To explore these primaries and the larger political picture, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Lange, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.michaellange.nyc/p/the-dress-rehearsal-for-2028">close observer of NYC’s political left</a> and author of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.michaellange.nyc/">The Narrative Wars</a> on Substack.</p><p>Geoffrey and Michael began with the <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-7-democratic-primary">7th District</a>, where longtime Rep. Nydia Velázquez is retiring <strong>(2:45)</strong>. This primary mainly pits progressive Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso against state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist. An outgrowth of the 2020 presidential clash between Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, this race may provide lessons about how Democrats can turn out young voters like Mayor Zohran Mamadani did in <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/new-york-new-york-city-mayor-general-election">NYC’s 2025 mayoral race</a>. After this, they detoured to discuss New York’s possible pre-2028 redistricting and what it might mean for districts in New York City <strong>(12:45)</strong>.</p><p>They then turned to the <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-10-democratic-primary">10th District</a>, where Rep. Dan Goldman faces a challenge from the left by former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander <strong>(18:14)</strong>. Goldman is an underdog in part because his political positioning — especially his views on Israel and support from AIPAC — are a poor fit for very progressive North Brooklyn, which makes up a majority of this seat. Michael and Geoffrey shifted to the <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-13-democratic-primary">13th District</a> in Upper Manhattan/The Bronx, where Rep. Adriano Espaillat also faces a challenge from his left <strong>(25:50)</strong>. Espaillat has built a political base from the large Dominican population in this area, but now finds himself trying to win over Black voters against his democratic socialist challenger, community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier. But Chevalier has her own issues thanks to a raft of controversial past social media posts.</p><p>They closed out by discussing the Manhattan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-12-democratic-primary">12th Distric</a>t, left open by the retirement of veteran Rep. Jerrold Nadler <strong>(35:19)</strong>. A crowded primary field includes Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg and attorney George Conway, the ex-husband of longtime Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. But the two leading candidates appear to be two members of the state Assembly: Michael Lasher and Alex Bores. This race has centered on artificial intelligence, as a super PAC associated with OpenAI has attacked Bores because of his past support for regulations on AI — likely a pivotal issue in the 2028 election. They also briefly discussed the <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-17-democratic-primary">17th District</a> just outside of NYC, a key battleground seat in 2026 <strong>(46:04)</strong>.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">decisiondeskhq.substack.com</a>
June 12, 2026
Episode 33: Where the Race for Congress Stands 5 Months Out, with Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball
<p>With the midterms fewer than five months out, we took stock of where things stand in the 2026 race for Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. In the House, the GOP holds a 220-215 majority that is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. However, congressional lines have changed a lot due to redistricting.</p><p>To talk about this, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/kkondik">Kyle Kondik</a>, the <a target="_blank" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/kyle-d-kondik/">Managing Editor</a> of <a target="_blank" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/">Sabato’s Crystal Ball</a> at the <a target="_blank" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/">University of Virginia Center for Politics</a>. They began by looking at the situation in the House of Representatives, where redistricting has left fewer competitive or potentially competitive seat <strong>(2:46)</strong>. All told, <a target="_blank" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/taking-stock-of-the-2026-house-map-an-update/">Kyle estimates</a> that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting, based on the Crystal Ball’s ratings. That means that the GOP is effectively heading into November with around 225 or more seats rather than the 220 the party won in 2024.</p><p>But the fly in the ointment for Republicans looks to be the electoral environment, most easily illustrated by the Democrats’ advantage in <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generic-ballot/national/lv-rv-adults">the generic ballot</a> <strong>(17:01)</strong>. Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP’s redistricting gains. Another problem for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy, traditionally one of his strongest issues, is actually running below his overall approval — that could lead the bottom to drop out if the GOP isn’t careful <strong>(22:10)</strong>. At the same time, Democrats run the risk of having their own tea party-like moment in which they nominate weaker, out-of-the-mainstream candidates who cost them winnable seats.</p><p>Kyle and Geoffrey then looked at the situation in California’s 22nd District, which illustrates some of these challenges for each side <strong>(24:56)</strong>. On the one hand, Republican Rep. David Valadao only won about 41% of <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-02/california-us-house-22-primary">the top-two primary vote</a> while his two Democratic opponents won a combined 59%. Historically, Valadao’s figure would portend defeat in the general election. However, the more progressive Democrat advanced to the general election, which might open the door to Valadao making things competitive — if that Democrat turns out to be a poor candidate.</p><p>They turned to a discussion of four Senate seats, starting with North Carolina <strong>(32:05)</strong>. The Crystal Ball <a target="_blank" href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-the-race-for-the-majority-is-not-a-toss-up-but-the-races-that-will-decide-it-are/">has shifted its rating</a> in North Carolina to give Democrats a slight edge, as former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at about 50% with a sizable lead. Democrats may have a better shot at flipping that state now than blue-leaning Maine, where Democrat Graham Platner <a target="_blank" href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-32-2026s-maine-event-with">has faced a series of controversies</a> <strong>(38:11)</strong>. The Crystal Ball has also moved Ohio and Alaska to toss-up status, which speaks to how they are likely the Democrats’ best targets among the more red-leaning seats that the party has to flip to win a Senate majority <strong>(42:32)</strong>.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">decisiondeskhq.substack.com</a>
June 10, 2026
Decision Desk 2026: Maine, South Carolina & Nevada Primaries
<p>On June 9, <a target="_blank" href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/south-carolina-maine-nevada-june-9-primary-platner-collins-senate">four states held their regular primary elections</a>. The top race was <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election">Maine’s U.S. Senate contest</a>, where controversy-laden Graham Platner won <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-senate-democratic-primary">the Democratic primary</a> to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But there were also crowded gubernatorial primaries in <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary">South Carolina</a> (GOP) and <a target="_blank" href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-democratic-primary">Maine</a> (Democrats), plus much more in Nevada and North Dakota.</p><p>At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, we kicked off our coverage of all the primary action on the <strong>Decision Desk 2026: Maine, Nevada & South Carolina Primary Livestream </strong>from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night to talk about what the results meant for November and beyond.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">decisiondeskhq.substack.com</a>
41 total episodes available
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