Downballot Counts is a podcast from Bloomberg Government about U.S. House and Senate elections and the fight for control of Congress. We explore how politics influence congressional races and pinpoint the most competitive races to watch. Downballot Counts also features interviews with lawmakers, journalists, and other campaign players. Host: Greg Giroux
US House 'Competitive for the Decade' Under New Maps
Democrats lost control of the House Nov. 8 but exceeded expectations under new congressional maps that ensure the House will be in play for the rest of the decade, according to the party's top redistricting strategist.
"There were a sufficient number of competitive seats on the board because of fair maps and the House is now going to be competitive for the decade," Kelly Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said on Bloomberg Government's "Downballot Counts" podcast with Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux.
Republicans probably will begin the 118th Congress next January with 222 House seats, a net gain of nine seats that was sufficient to overturn the Democratic majority but was below the big historical gains the opposition party usually makes in a midterm election.
Democrats blocked a GOP "red wave" in part by faring well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where redistricting commissions or courts drew new congressional maps and Republicans had weak top-of-ticket nominees for governor, and also in Illinois and Nevada, where Democratic maps achieved their partisan goals.
Republicans dominated in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis's landslide re-election helped his party win 20 of 28 districts under a map he signed. But Republicans also won six districts favoring President Joe Biden in New York, where a special master's map replaced a proposal from the Democratic legislature that was invalidated as an impermissible partisan gerrymander.
Redistricting litigation is pending in states including North Carolina, where Democrats and Republicans won seven seats apiece under an interim, one-election map that was approved by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court after it rejected the Republican legislature's map as so partisan it violated the state constitution.
The US Supreme Court on Dec. 7 will hear oral arguments in Moore v. Harper, an appeal by North Carolina Republican legislators who are advocating for the "independent state legislature" theory under which state legislatures should be able to enact redistricting plans immune from judicial review in state court.
"Redistricting is not over, and it's not going to end anytime soon," Burton said.
Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.
7 Nov 2022
Your Complete Guide to Election Night—and Beyond
Election Day is finally here! With so many competitive races, and control of the House and Senate up for grabs, there will be a lot to watch on Tuesday and the days that follow.
To help you know what to focus on, and when, Bloomberg Government’s Emily Wilkins, Greg Giroux and Zach C. Cohen used the latest Downballot Counts to walk through each hour of polls closing (based on when the latest polls close in the state) and what races can tell us about the direction of the night.
From the East Coast to the farthest reaches of Alaska, Greg, Zach, and Emily review which races will have quick reporting and which could take a while.
They also get into weird quirks of certain states so you know whether a Democratic or Republican lead is real or just a factor of how ballots are counted. Plus, they discuss the races that won't be called on Election Night and when you can expect final results.
So grab some pizza and the caffeinated beverage of your choice and get ready.
Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.
24 Oct 2022
Women on the Ballot: Still Underrepresented But Looking to Gain
Women are still underrepresented in major political office after steady but slow gains: they account for just 28% of members of Congress and 18% of governors, the highest representation so far in history. How female candidates fare in the Nov. 8 election will depend in part on how well incumbents perform.
Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist and scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, spoke about this with Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux on the "Downballot Counts" podcast.
"The story about how women incumbents fare is important" in part because it's "determining where we land in terms of women's representation," Dittmar said. Some women first elected to the House in 2018, a good year for Democratic women, or in 2020, when Republican women did well, have difficult re-election bids. Several others retired, sought other office, or were defeated in the primary.
The 583 Democratic and Republican women who sought House seats in 2022 is “exactly the same” as the record number from 2020, Dittmar said, though the number of women who won their nominations fell to 259 from the record of 298 set in 2020. Democratic women continue to lead Republican women, though the GOP has closed the gap from 2018.
"It's still high historically, but we haven't seen that level of increase that we saw in the last cycles," she said. And while the number of women House nominees decreased, "I wouldn't raise a red flag about a decline, but just to say that we aren't seeking a pace of increase for women."
In contests for governor, Dittmar said there's a “fairly good” chance for states to top the record of nine women governors first set in 2004 and matched today. Massachusetts Democrat Maura Healey and Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders are strongly favored to succeed male governors in their states. A woman will also succeed a man as Arizona governor, though it's not clear if it will be Republican Kari Lake or Democrat Katie Hobbs.
"Governor is a huge point of progress for women this cycle," Dittmar said. "When we're talking about being in stasis for women candidates, that's not true at the gubernatorial level."
Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.
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