Energy Flux: On Air
Claim This Podcastby Seb Kennedy
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Podcast Overview
<p>Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets.</p><p></p><p>Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG.</p><p></p><p>Find out more & subscribe at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/" target="_blank">www.EnergyFlux.news</a></p>
Language
🇺🇲
Publishing Since
2/11/2025
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Recent Episodes
May 20, 2026
Countdown to the Commodities Crunch
<p><i>Energy Flux</i> founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.</p><p></p><p>Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.</p><p></p><p>The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.</p><p></p><p><b>Chapters</b></p><ul><li>00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results</li><li>12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction</li><li>16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds</li><li>26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage</li><li>34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsaw</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Links</b></p><ul><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/hormuz-closure-lng-supply-impact-model/" target="_blank"><b>Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model</b></a></li><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/var-the-hidden-ceiling-why-ttf-cant-break-50/" target="_blank"><b>The Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh</b></a></li></ul>
April 22, 2026
Groundhog Strait: Hormuz, LNG and prolonged uncertainty
<p><i>Energy Flux</i> founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.</p><p></p><p>They explore modelling scenarios from the <i>Energy Flux</i> Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.</p><p></p><p>The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.</p><p></p><p><b>Takeaways</b></p><ul><li>Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets</li><li>Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply</li><li>Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome</li><li>Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Chapters</b></p><ul><li>00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets</li><li>05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios</li><li>17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure</li><li>36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite</li><li>44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Links</b></p><ol><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/hormuz-closure-lng-supply-impact-model/" target="_blank">Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model</a></li><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/war-vs-glut-the-great-lng-reckoning/" target="_blank">Deep Dive explaining model scenarios</a></li><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSmsypiIdrU" target="_blank">Hormuz model YouTube tutorial</a></li><li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tally.so/r/44NMWk" target="_blank">Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)</a></li></ol>
March 26, 2026
US-Iran war: Armageddon deferred?
<p>This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system.</p><p></p><p>Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.</p><p></p><p>He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.</p><p></p><p>Chapters</p><ul><li>00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'</li><li>03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports</li><li>08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction</li><li>13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?</li><li>22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficit</li></ul><p></p><p>Sign up for the free newsletter: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://www.EnergyFlux.news" target="_blank">www.EnergyFlux.news</a></p>
17 total episodes available
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Frequently asked questions
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- What is Energy Flux: On Air?
<p>Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets.</p><p></p><p>Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG.</p><p></p><p>Find out more & subscribe at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.energyflux.news/" target="_blank">www.EnergyFlux.news</a></p> - How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
- Where can I listen to this podcast?
This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
- Does this podcast accept guests?
Yes, this podcast regularly features guests.
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