Energy Flux: On Air

About Energy Flux: On Air

Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets. Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG. Find out more & subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news (https://www.energyflux.news/)

Publisher

Seb Kennedy

Category

business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

11 Feb 2025

Latest episode

17 Sept 2026

Latest episodes

18 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   17 Sept 2026

   Gastech 2026: LNG hype vs reality *and* human vs robot dance-off

   Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy reports from Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, where the conversation revolved around significant geopolitical shifts affecting the LNG market, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by QatarEnergy and Saudi Arabia. Seb expressed scepticism about the optimistic forecasts for LNG demand and highlighted the severe implications of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on global energy supply... before he was challenged to a dance-off with a robot on the exhibition floor. Sign up for the newsletter: https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe) Music licensed through Soundstripe. Code: RBM0CJDMLY7XGY3F, UO02CFURHFA8MQJA

2. 

   20 May 2026

   Countdown to the Commodities Crunch

   Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond. Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup. The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade. Chapters 00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results 12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction 16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds 26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage 34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsaw Links Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model (https://www.energyflux.news/hormuz-closure-lng-supply-impact-model/) The Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh (https://www.energyflux.news/var-the-hidden-ceiling-why-ttf-cant-break-50/)

3. 

   22 Apr 2026

   Groundhog Strait: Hormuz, LNG and prolonged uncertainty

   Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets. They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint. The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation. Takeaways Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets 05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios 17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure 36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite 44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate Links Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model (https://www.energyflux.news/hormuz-closure-lng-supply-impact-model/) Deep Dive explaining model scenarios (https://www.energyflux.news/war-vs-glut-the-great-lng-reckoning/) Hormuz model YouTube tutorial (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSmsypiIdrU) Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own) (https://tally.so/r/44NMWk)

4. 

   26 Mar 2026

   US-Iran war: Armageddon deferred?

   This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system. Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply. He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock. Chapters 00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO' 03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports 08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction 13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war? 22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficit Sign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news (http://www.EnergyFlux.news)

5. 

   19 Mar 2026

   The Middle East energy war is out of control

   This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities. Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability. They explore the market response, shipping and transit costs, deep geopolitical uncertainty, historical context, and the potential for broader escalation beyond the Middle East region. The conversation delves into the discrepancy between physical reality on the ground vs. cautious market pricing, and the inadequacy of conventional geopolitical analysis in the face of irrational actors on the global stage. Chapters 00:00 Update on Middle East Energy War 07:31 Initial Market Response 14:17 Physical Reality vs. Market Pricing 27:05 Regional Instability and Broader Escalation Sign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news (https://www.energyflux.news/#/portal/signup/free)

6. 

   13 Mar 2026

   The Pain Factor: Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure

   In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets. The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks. They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply. And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf. Article referenced: US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux (https://www.energyflux.news/war-profits-quantified/)) Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux (https://www.energyflux.news/hormuz-closure-triggers-record-ttf-liquidation/)) Chapters 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction 02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy 05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War 11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market 18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets 24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure 32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market Conditions Sign up to the free Energy Flux newsletter (link (https://www.energyflux.news/#/portal/signup/free))

7. 

   22 Dec 2025

   Scarcity, Abundance and Urgency: How Natural Gas Prices Dictate the Pace of Energy Transition

   Host Seb Kennedy analyzes how natural gas prices influence the speed of energy transition, highlighting the impact of market volatility and strategic planning for potential shortages.

8. 

   24 Oct 2025

   The Illusion of Power: Empty Threats & New Dependencies in a Fragmented Energy World

   Energy Flux founding editor SEB KENNEDY analyzes the EU's ban on Russian LNG, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the illusion of power in a fragmented energy world, revealing geopolitical dysfunction.

9. 

   17 Sept 2025

   Gastech 2025 presentation: Mapping the storage-speculation nexus

   Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy presents his Gastech 2025 paper, which maps the storage-speculation nexus to explain investment fund strategies on Dutch TTF and proposes policy reforms for speculation-driven price volatility.

10. 

    14 Sept 2025

    Energy Flux @ Gastech 2025 - Milan, Italy

    Host Seb Kennedy explores the rising US LNG presence, pricing economics, and political implications of exports at Gastech 2025, offering insights into the energy sector's complexities.

11. 

    15 Aug 2025

    Make Alaska Russian Again?!

    Host Seb unpacks the geopolitical stakes and potential gains of a Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, exploring its impact on Europe and LNG markets in this interview.

12. 

    12 May 2025

    🎧 Nord Stream 2: the plot thickens!

    The day after the European Commission proposed an outright ban on Russian gas in the EU, a Swiss court threw a lifeline to Nord Stream 2. The ruling opens the door to a potential revival of the defunct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that was half destroyed in a dramatic subsea explosion in 2022. How should we square the circle of an EU ban on Russian gas with a possible revival of Nord Stream 2? How does the restructuring ruling affect the ownership of this contentious piece of infrastructure? Would any buyer really be interested in owning it? This episode of Energy Flux: On Air (https://www.energyflux.news/podcast) unpacks the legal ruling and weighs up the options in light of the EU’s push to outlaw Russian gas entirely, which I covered in last week’s (https://www.energyflux.news/p/zombie-bulls-twitch-back-to-life)EU LNG Chart Deck (https://www.energyflux.news/p/zombie-bulls-twitch-back-to-life). I also discuss the historical purpose of Nord Stream 2, the role it played before and during the 2021-22 energy crisis, and how Gazprom’s actions have galvanised a European political consensus against a resumption of Russian gas dependency. The full transcript is included below. Thanks for listening, — Seb More from Energy Flux: Episode transcript: (00:00:19): Hi there, and welcome back to Energy Flux On Air. (00:00:23): I'm your host, (00:00:24): Seb Kennedy, (00:00:25): founding editor of Energy Flux, (00:00:27): the energy newsletter analyzing European natural gas and global energy markets (00:00:33): through the lens of Europe's energy transition and global geopolitics. (00:00:37): I'm doing something a bit different on this episode. (00:00:41): I'm going to dedicate almost the entire show to a single listener question. (00:00:46): It's such an interesting topic and doing it justice requires quite a lot of explaining, (00:00:52): especially in the current regulatory environment. (00:00:56): So without further ado, the question comes from Mark in Hertfordshire. (00:01:00): He says, Hi Seb, love the show. (00:01:02): Can you give us your take on the Nord Stream 2 insolvency proceedings? (00:01:07): How should we square the circle of the stay of execution granted by the Swiss (00:01:12): Bankruptcy Court with the EU's proposed Russian gas ban? (00:01:17): Well, thanks for the question, Mark. (00:01:19): Nord Stream 2's insolvency saga is like the latest chapter in an endless legal (00:01:26): thriller full of action and suspense with geopolitical twists. (00:01:31): The Russian gas ban proposed by the EU that you referred to adds a fresh layer of (00:01:36): complexity and uncertainty into an already fraught outlook for this piece of (00:01:41): critical infrastructure. (00:01:43): So I'm going to unpack the key elements of the legal situation before then going on (00:01:48): to look at the Russian gas ban itself and how the two fit together to understand (00:01:53): where the pipeline might be headed and what it all means for European energy markets. (00:01:59): But first, just some brief background facts on Nord Stream 2 for unfamiliar listeners. (00:02:07): So, (00:02:07): Nord Stream 2 is a twin undersea pipeline built to carry up to 55 billion cubic (00:02:14): metres of Russian gas per year directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. (00:02:20): And it ran alongside an operational project called Nord Stream or Nord Stream 1. (00:02:26): It cost about 11 billion euros to build and was and is fully owned by Gazprom, (00:02:33): but financed by five Western lenders, (00:02:37): energy companies Uniper, (00:02:38): Wintershell, (00:02:39): Deo, (00:02:39): Shell... (00:02:40): OMV and ONGIE. (00:02:42): They financed about half of the construction costs through loans rather than equity, (00:02:46): and they ponied up about 700 billion euros each. (00:02:50): But Gazprom owns 100% of the share capital of Nord Stream 2 AG, (00:02:56): which is the Swiss incorporated holding company for the Nord Stream 2 project. (00:03:02): Nord Stream 2 has been a real political flashpoint. (00:03:05): Construction was completed in 2021, but it was never commissioned. (00:03:10): Germany halted its launch in February 2022 amid Russia's full land invasion of (00:03:15): Ukraine and Western sanctions. (00:03:18): One of its twin pipes was sabotaged in 2022, (00:03:21): of course, (00:03:22): alongside the two operational strings of Nord Stream 1 in that dramatic subsea (00:03:27): detonation that was worthy of a James Bond spy movie. (00:03:31): And the insolvency proceedings, (00:03:34): they relate to effectively the undamaged single string of Nord Stream 2, (00:03:40): because without operations and shrouded in sanctions, (00:03:44): then the holding company, (00:03:47): Nord Stream 2 AG, (00:03:49): was to all intents and purposes bankrupt, but not officially so. (00:03:54): So a court in the Swiss canton of Zug in Switzerland opened the restructuring (00:04:01): rather than liquidation proceedings in early 2023. (00:04:05): and granted successive moratoriums until the 9th of May last week, (00:04:11): when it approved a debt restructuring plan. (00:04:15): And that's a little bit like Chapter 11, the US bankruptcy protection process. (00:04:20): This is a key asset that's been a focal point, (00:04:23): a flashpoint for political arguments across the EU and the rest of Europe for many years. (00:04:30): And the reigning line, (00:04:32): single line, (00:04:32): that can carry up to about 27 billion cubic metres of gas per year is essentially (00:04:38): the principal asset that's being the subject of potentially being auctioned or (00:04:43): refinanced or restructured or sold under the supervision of that Swiss court. (00:04:49): So the court itself approved this debt restructuring deal, (00:04:55): and that essentially spared Nord Stream 2 AG, (00:04:58): the Gazprom-owned holding company, (00:05:00): from official bankruptcy. (00:05:01): Small creditors were paid off in full, (00:05:03): and the claims of those major European lenders like Shell and Winter Shaldea (00:05:09): they were effectively elevated above the claims of Gazprom. (00:05:13): And this is a really interesting point, (00:05:15): because apparently the shareholder voting rights that Gazprom held in Nord Stream 2 AG, (00:05:22): they have, (00:05:22): to all intents and purposes, (00:05:24): been suspended, (00:05:25): which means that if the pipeline is sold, (00:05:29): then Gazprom, (00:05:31): as an equity holder and a debtor to those European lenders, (00:05:35): will only get anything after all the creditor claims are paid off. (00:05:40): And that's really important because, (00:05:42): you know, (00:05:42): if it cost them $11 billion to build and that was for two strings, (00:05:47): then, (00:05:47): you know, (00:05:49): how much can you realistically expect to get for one string in the context that I'm (00:05:53): about to describe where Russian gas is... (00:05:57): facing immense hurdles and is not entirely likely to return to the European markets, (00:06:03): potentially ever, (00:06:04): or at least for many years. (00:06:07): So these Western creditors have about 700 million euros each claim over Nord Stream (00:06:12): 2 AG and the infrastructure that it owns. (00:06:16): And they're very much now in the driving seat. (00:06:19): So this restructuring procedure has really kind of turned the tables over the power (00:06:25): and control over the fate of Nord Stream 2. (00:06:30): Because before Gazprom really called the shots as the sole shareholder, (00:06:34): but now it seems that the Western creditors have a bit more of the upper hand. (00:06:37): That said, they do have an aligned interest. (00:06:40): I think that both sides would like to kind of get something back from this, (00:06:45): you know, (00:06:46): immensely expensive white elephant that's been half blown up on the bed of the (00:06:51): Baltic Sea. (00:06:52): But quite how they go about doing that could soon see their interests diverge. (00:06:56): And that's when the power play could come into effect because we've seen... (00:07:00): interest from a US investor, (00:07:02): this kind of mysterious chap called Stephen Lynch, (00:07:05): who cropped up last year, (00:07:07): said he wants to buy the pipeline for quote-unquote pennies on the dollar, (00:07:10): which would flip control over this critical asset to Western Australia. (00:07:15): into Western hands, (00:07:16): allow Washington to essentially hold a stranglehold over Russian gas flows into Europe, (00:07:24): which is kind of an interesting geopolitical twist on the future energy and (00:07:29): security arrangements for Europe. (00:07:32): i think it's a bit fanciful really because you know like nordstrom 2 it never (00:07:36): received german certification so it wasn't allowed to start up and the eu's gas (00:07:43): directive which is an important regulation that adds a hurdle to operating (00:07:49): nordstrom 2 and so like pipelines that enter the the eu single energy market they (00:07:55): must separate (00:07:57): the legal ownership of the pipeline from the physical gas supply of the gas that (00:08:02): the pipeline is carrying. (00:08:03): So you can't own the pipeline and the gas supply entirely. (00:08:06): And that's actually why the Western energy companies opted for a financing role (00:08:12): rather than taking shareholder stakes. (00:08:14): They all wanted (00:08:15): rights on Nord Stream 2 and to own the molecules flowing through the pipe. (00:08:19): And they couldn't have that if they owned stakes in the Nord Stream 2 AG operating (00:08:25): company as well. (00:08:26): So that's why we're in this situation now. (00:08:31): So what's going to happen? (00:08:33): Well, it's worth recalling at this stage that Gazprom has a lot of legal baggage. (00:08:38): There's about 13 billion euros in unsettled arbitration claims. (00:08:44): from Uniper, (00:08:45): which is one of the creditors, (00:08:46): to Nord Stream 2 AG for non-delivery of gas under their previous long-term contract. (00:08:52): So you can imagine a third-party buyer wants to come in, (00:08:57): take control of this potentially operational single string of Nord Stream 2, (00:09:03): But then all the gas revenues could be seized because, (00:09:07): you know, (00:09:07): Gazprom owes a lot of money to Uniper and hasn't paid up for cutting off gas in the (00:09:12): 2021-2022 crisis invasion period. (00:09:13): So that's probably going to be (00:09:19): A bit of a minefield, really, for any new owner of the infrastructure. (00:09:22): And then back to Mark's question, (00:09:24): you know, (00:09:24): what about this new element, (00:09:26): the EU's Russian gas ban? (00:09:28): How do you square the circle of the, (00:09:31): you know, (00:09:31): the kind of lifeline to Nord Stream 2's potential resuscitation with the fact that (00:09:36): Brussels is floating a quite serious sounding plan to actually... (00:09:41): outlaw the supply or delivery or trade of russian gas within the eu and that could (00:09:46): start as soon as the end of this year so they they published a roadmap last week (00:09:51): almost around about the same time as the insolvency ruling which was kind of an (00:09:55): interesting timing for that then this roadmap says there'll be no spot sales and no (00:10:01): new contracts after 2025 for russian gas (00:10:05): And it's pretty sweeping, the way it's been proposed. (00:10:08): It's quite bold, (00:10:10): and it seemed to catch a few commentators by surprise for its boldness, (00:10:16): because it would, (00:10:17): if passed, (00:10:18): rule out any flow of Russian origin gas along Nord Stream 2 or any other pipeline. (00:10:24): regardless of who owns the pipeline and obviously you can't change where nordstrom (00:10:30): 2 starts or ends you know it is a fixed piece of infrastructure so it's very (00:10:36): difficult to put anything down that pipe into europe that's that's not russian gas (00:10:41): So if this gas ban comes into effect, (00:10:44): then it's very difficult to see how Nord Stream 2 has any value whatsoever. (00:10:48): But, and there's always a but with these things, of course, isn't there? (00:10:51): The Russian gas ban, well, it hasn't been implemented yet. (00:10:54): And when you start to look at it, you start to think, well, actually... (00:10:58): There could be a lot of compromises. (00:11:00): I mean, (00:11:00): I think the European Commission's proposing it because they want to get ahead of (00:11:06): any possible settlement over Ukraine, (00:11:08): which I'll get onto as well a bit later on. (00:11:12): They want to kind of close the door on Russian gas coming back as part of a peace settlement. (00:11:16): But we've already seen how Russian energy products, (00:11:20): Russian commodities, (00:11:22): have managed to skirt around Western sanctions. (00:11:26): Russian gas could conceivably be rebranded by doing gas swaps, (00:11:31): like pumping the gas into Azerbaijan, (00:11:33): then Azerbaijan. (00:11:34): that freeing up gas that azerbaijan produces for its domestic market to then export (00:11:38): through you know the southern gas corridor or the same with turkey as well because (00:11:42): turkey is a massive kind of transit route for for russian gas because they have the (00:11:47): turkstream pipeline that runs under the black sea and that's now the main entry (00:11:51): point for for russian gas indirectly into the eu through turkey so they could just (00:11:55): send more russian gas through uh through turkey and you (00:11:59): essentially kind of whitewash it of its origins, (00:12:01): and then Turkey's even saying they signed an agreement with Romania after the (00:12:07): Russian gas ban was proposed. (00:12:09): They signed this kind of high-level political agreement, (00:12:11): the leaders of Romania and Turkey saying that Romania's going to start buying (00:12:15): Turkish gas now. (00:12:17): which seems like quite an affront to the European Commission, (00:12:19): because it's really blatantly not going to be Turkish gas. (00:12:23): I think Turkish gas, if I recall right, only supplies about 5% of Turkish domestic gas needs. (00:12:30): So it's kind of like, well, guys, where are you going to get the gas from then? (00:12:34): You've got this kind of massive Russian gas pipeline coming across the Black Sea, (00:12:39): and Turkey's going to provide entirely Turkish gas to Romania. (00:12:43): Right, yeah, sure, okay. (00:12:45): All right, (00:12:45): anyway, (00:12:46): so, (00:12:46): you know, (00:12:46): like, (00:12:47): there is this possibility that, (00:12:49): you know, (00:12:49): Russian gas will be rebranded in some form or another and still find its way into (00:12:54): European markets. (00:12:55): The big question is really, (00:12:56): like, (00:12:57): you know, (00:12:57): the ban, (00:12:58): if it's introduced, (00:13:00): then, (00:13:00): like, (00:13:00): how fiercely will it be policed? (00:13:02): Does it rest on member states' willingness to enforce it? (00:13:05): Because, (00:13:06): you know, (00:13:06): judging by Romania's attitude, (00:13:07): then it sounds like they'd be quite happy to kind of go along with the charade that (00:13:11): Turkish gas is Turkish and it's not actually Russian gas. (00:13:15): And I'm sure there'll be lots of other member states who are quite willing to flout the ban. (00:13:18): I mean, Hungary, Slovakia, they're all very kind of Russia-friendly, aren't they? (00:13:23): And they'd quite happily get their hands on, you know, non-Russian Russian gas if they could. (00:13:29): So, (00:13:29): you know, (00:13:29): it's like, (00:13:31): how can the EU trace and crack down on Russian gas swaps with these countries? (00:13:35): It's, (00:13:37): you know, (00:13:37): it's hard to see it not being laundered to avoid being penalised by these new rules. (00:13:42): And there are other questions as well. (00:13:44): So if it's like a selective ban against a single country's exports, (00:13:48): does that expose the EU to a Russian challenge before the World Trade Organization? (00:13:54): Because that kind of could flout the TO rules to enabling free and fair trade. (00:13:58): That's an unanswered legal question. (00:14:02): um and and i think there's like the biggest question of all really is and i think (00:14:07): this is kind of what the ban is intended to address is you know what happens if (00:14:13): there's a peace deal in ukraine which puts russian gas exports at the heart of any (00:14:19): agreement between the sides you know if there's if there's a kind of negotiated (00:14:24): settlement and the big prize for moscow is that it gets some of its european market (00:14:29): back (00:14:29): for gas and maybe other energy products as well, (00:14:33): then it's hard to see how this Russian gas ban can really be enforced, (00:14:40): or quite how that would play out in the negotiating table. (00:14:43): And the other aspect of this as well, (00:14:45): of course, (00:14:45): is that Ukraine itself is in a really, (00:14:48): really difficult energy situation. (00:14:50): It's a war-torn country. (00:14:52): struggling to replenish its severely depleted gas storages they went as low as (00:14:56): about three percent i think over the winter and they haven't been replenished much (00:15:01): yet so far at this early stage of the refilling season and my understanding is that (00:15:05): pipeline access into ukraine is actually quite constrained by very high border (00:15:11): tariffs from southeast europe and limited interconnector capacity availability from (00:15:16): poland (00:15:17): So, (00:15:17): you know, (00:15:19): an EU ban on Russian pipeline gas, (00:15:22): if effective, (00:15:23): could actually force Ukraine to turn to Russian gas to help meet its domestic needs (00:15:28): and refill those gas storage facilities. (00:15:30): And that would really weaken Kiev's negotiating hand at a critical moment in the conflict. (00:15:35): So there are a lot of really kind of knotty, (00:15:38): difficult trade-offs at the heart of this Russian gas ban that make you wonder if (00:15:43): it could really be introduced and enforced as the Commission is proposing. (00:15:48): So just to summarise, (00:15:49): I'd say, (00:15:49): well, (00:15:49): an EU ban on Russian gas could be very leaky, (00:15:53): but I would say that the ultimate fate of Nord Stream 2 is probably bound up in the (00:15:59): Ukraine peace talks, (00:16:00): which means it's not really in Europe's hands, (00:16:03): because Europe isn't really in the driving seat when it comes to Ukraine. (00:16:06): Obviously, they are a material actor, but... (00:16:10): The big players are the US, (00:16:13): Russia and Ukraine, (00:16:14): of course, (00:16:14): because Ukraine can continue fighting as long as it has access to weaponry, (00:16:19): although that could be curtailed again if the US and Russia agree some sort of deal (00:16:26): and they could turn the pressure on to the Ukrainians to force them... (00:16:29): to stop fighting by cutting off access to military intelligence and to US weapons. (00:16:34): Well, you know, that could, again, turn the tables on the battlefield, couldn't it? (00:16:39): But, you know, the war is dragging on. (00:16:41): There are putative talk going on between Moscow and Washington, (00:16:44): but apparently getting nowhere, (00:16:45): as far as I can tell, (00:16:47): from the outside. (00:16:47): Apparently, (00:16:48): due primarily to the Kremlin's intransigence on a bunch of totally unrealistic red (00:16:54): lines that... (00:16:55): I won't get into here, but essentially they want Ukraine on a platter. (00:16:58): And I think that even the kind of Kremlin-friendly administration in the White (00:17:03): House is kind of struggling to sell that to anybody but the most ardent kind of (00:17:10): Russiophiles who seem to be running amok. (00:17:12): at the moment in the halls of power in washington so where's it all going to go i (00:17:16): mean peace you have to think peace in ukraine it will have to prevail in some form (00:17:20): or another it might be a kind of ugly unstable unsustainable unenforceable and (00:17:26): highly damaging peace deal that really undermines european security interests for (00:17:31): decades to come but a deal of some description perhaps that kind of a deal would (00:17:36): almost certainly have to be done (00:17:38): at some point, because everybody loses in a stalemate, which is essentially what we're in now. (00:17:43): I don't think either side wants to get bogged down in a forever war, (00:17:46): but I mean, (00:17:47): I guess at the same time, (00:17:48): the way things are going, (00:17:49): you can't rule that out either. (00:17:51): Where does that leave us? (00:17:52): Well, I think it's worth mentioning, just to take a step back, (00:17:55): And to think about Nord Stream 2 and why it was built in the first place. (00:18:00): I mean, (00:18:01): Nord Stream 2 was proposed and built by Russia alongside Nord Stream 1 as a means of, (00:18:07): for the Russian side, (00:18:08): cutting Ukraine out of the equation. (00:18:11): Because Ukraine, of course, earned many billions of euros in transit fees prior to 2022. (00:18:19): And just by having this very elaborate and high-capacity transmission system that (00:18:25): connected Russian, (00:18:27): Siberian gas-producing fields with these kind of prized premium European markets, (00:18:33): then they were the middleman. (00:18:34): And they took a cut, (00:18:36): essentially, (00:18:36): for the kind of rentier economy arrangement, (00:18:40): where it was just... (00:18:41): just like money flooding into Ukraine. (00:18:44): And I've been told, (00:18:45): and I've never been to Ukraine, (00:18:46): never been to Kiev, (00:18:48): but I've been told that these immense checks just dropping into Kiev, (00:18:51): they fostered a real kind of sprawling, (00:18:54): parasitic kleptocracy that was just completely riddled with corruption. (00:18:58): I've heard it described as a kind of mafia organisation that just sprung up to gorge on these (00:19:04): Russian gas transit fees over the years and that was one thing that EU leaders (00:19:09): pretty much turned a blind eye to, (00:19:11): along with so much else in the years leading up to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. (00:19:17): And I think that the Russian side got sick of kind of bankrolling these mafia types (00:19:22): in Kiev and wanted to cut them out of the equation. (00:19:24): They wanted to just bypass Ukraine (00:19:26): And probably strategically so that they could then think about, (00:19:30): you know, (00:19:30): then exerting their will over Ukrainian sovereignty and eventually planning an (00:19:35): invasion of various bits, (00:19:37): the annexation of Crimea and then the full land invasion. (00:19:39): They wanted to kind of take Ukraine back. (00:19:41): One way of doing that or one of the many steps leading up to being able to do that (00:19:46): was to kind of end their access to Russian gas transits. (00:19:50): which of course did eventually finally come to an end on the 1st of January this year. (00:19:55): Russian transits of gas through Ukraine have halted. (00:20:01): And so, (00:20:01): you know, (00:20:01): that is another loss of revenue for Ukraine in this war, (00:20:05): which was kind of crazy to think that they were still earning Russian transit (00:20:10): revenues for a couple of years after the invasion in February 2022 for transiting (00:20:15): Russian gas to European buyers, (00:20:16): just like they always had done. (00:20:20): There's another side note that's relevant in this story. (00:20:24): Everyone says that rushing gas is cheap, but that's a myth. (00:20:28): Remember that liquefied natural gas, (00:20:30): so LNG from global suppliers, (00:20:33): was introduced into Europe as a means of holding Gazprom's feet to the fire in (00:20:38): contractual negotiations, (00:20:40): because in its heyday Gazprom sold gas to lots of EU utilities and industrials (00:20:45): under these (00:20:46): kind of premium priced oil indexed long-term contracts that were often priced above (00:20:52): the prevailing market rate on the dutch title transfer facility which is the the (00:20:57): benchmark spot trading venue in the netherlands for for natural gas and the (00:21:03): reference price for europe so when when the spot market evolved um the introduction (00:21:08): of competition and liberalization it did what it was supposed to do which was to (00:21:11): kind of you know more competition increases market efficiency and that kind of (00:21:16): classic (00:21:17): kind of market economics 101 playbook which is the you know diversity of diversity (00:21:22): of sources and breaking down these rigid state structures and and breaking open (00:21:28): this closed house of bilateral trade between state-backed actors having lots of (00:21:32): dynamic private capital flow in and (00:21:35): and then having lots of interesting innovation in financial instruments and futures (00:21:39): trading and all the stuff that I monitor in energy flux like that, (00:21:42): that did lower prices. (00:21:43): So for a very long time, (00:21:44): the spot price of gas was on the CTF was much lower than the price that European (00:21:51): buyers had to pay gas from under those oil index contracts. (00:21:54): And of course, (00:21:55): Vladimir Putin did like troll the EU for pursuing this strategy of liberalizing (00:22:01): European gas markets. (00:22:02): So like, you know, (00:22:03): be careful what you wish for and it was it was somewhat prophetic because obviously (00:22:09): when the the market conditions changed they changed dramatically so Gazprom went (00:22:14): from being one of the most expensive suppliers to being one of the cheapest when (00:22:19): the spot market went absolutely crazy during the 2021-2022 energy crisis which of (00:22:25): course Gazprom helps to engineer it's worth adding by withholding (00:22:29): volumes from the European gas market which it was used to sending and allowing its (00:22:35): own gas storage facilities which it owned and controlled in Germany allowing those (00:22:40): to deplete so leaving Europe's biggest economy in a really kind of parlous energy situation. (00:22:47): During the refilling season of 2021, (00:22:49): that was all part of this premeditated campaign to destabilise the European energy (00:22:55): market and to weaponise its use of gas, (00:22:57): all obviously as a prelude to the full land invasion of Ukraine. (00:23:03): so that's a little bit about the background of russian gas and how it's not really (00:23:07): like the cheap thing it's always described as being and like the raw the (00:23:10): reintroduction of russian gas oh we need our cheap russian gas oh our poor (00:23:13): industrials they're all they're all going bankrupt they're all suffering because we (00:23:16): don't have russian gas anymore anymore it's like well actually it's not quite how (00:23:20): things were and i think the eu policy of like diversifying gas sources (00:23:26): or just diversifying energy sources in general but even within gas like having (00:23:30): pipelines from algeria global lng supplies having lots of lng terminal (00:23:36): regasification capacity and then having lots of trading within the eu of different (00:23:42): gas sources i think all of that stuff it's all vitally important isn't it to (00:23:46): building resilience into the system you know this kind of single (00:23:50): point supplier reliance is um it's just a recipe for vulnerability which can then (00:23:56): be exploited for geopolitical advantage and that's another big question that sort (00:24:00): of hangs over the russian gas ban because you know there's i think i think there's (00:24:06): about 20 30 billion cubic meters per year of gas still entering the eu from russia (00:24:12): indirectly through that turkstream pipeline i mentioned (00:24:15): And like, you know, how's that going to be replaced? (00:24:17): Is it just going to be mopped up by the other kind of dependency which EU has, (00:24:23): which is on US LNG? (00:24:25): So American liquefied natural gas or Qatari liquefied natural gas. (00:24:29): Is it just going to swap one dependency for another or exacerbate the dependency on (00:24:33): those two big suppliers? (00:24:34): It's difficult to know, isn't it? (00:24:36): But it's hard to see there being really that many options. (00:24:39): Like who else can really ramp up? (00:24:41): supply to uh to meet that demand if of course that demand remains and that's (00:24:46): another important kind of part of the story which i won't get into too much but you (00:24:49): know european gas demand is on secular decline slope so it's hard to see that the (00:24:55): kind of demand profile being particularly resilient for all the topics i mentioned (00:25:00): on previous episodes so the outlook is is a bit shaky on that front (00:25:04): But yeah, (00:25:04): essentially, (00:25:05): so the whole gas story and the Nord Stream 2 story is all so bound up in European (00:25:12): geopolitics and relationships between the EU and Russia. (00:25:18): Bearing in mind everything that's happened in recent years, (00:25:21): it's quite understandable for there to be a very strong political consensus across (00:25:28): European capitals against resuscitating that dependency on Russian... (00:25:33): in particular, (00:25:35): I mean, (00:25:35): you know, (00:25:36): when the gas prices spiked to, (00:25:39): what was it, (00:25:41): about 300 euros per megawatt hour in 2022 after the invasion, (00:25:45): then anybody who was holding oil indexed contracts with Gazprom was able to make (00:25:50): just these obscene profits by reselling those same molecules that were priced on a (00:25:57): Brent slope into this red hot spot market. (00:25:59): The margins were just... (00:26:01): phenomenally it's like winning the lottery a million times over every single day (00:26:05): and that dual pricing structure was really revealed for what it was you know it was (00:26:09): allowed both european gas buyers and gas from itself to sort of manipulate the (00:26:13): market and rake in huge war profits during the early months of the war before of (00:26:17): course gazprom cut off flows as part of the kremlin's multi-dimensional war (00:26:21): campaign against the west and the european in particular (00:26:26): So the scars of 2021, (00:26:28): 2022, (00:26:28): they're still very raw, (00:26:31): and I don't think anybody's forgotten the pain that was heaped upon consumers, (00:26:35): ultimately, (00:26:36): by Russia's weaponisation of gas, (00:26:38): and all the political fallout from that, (00:26:41): because obviously, (00:26:42): you know, (00:26:42): that... (00:26:43): that kind of upsurge in in energy costs that were all rooted from the gas price (00:26:48): crisis of 2021-2022 that's all fermented all this discontent among socially (00:26:54): deprived communities across europe where you know you've then seen uh you know (00:27:00): these kind of de-industrialized forgotten communities just turning into the (00:27:04): breeding ground for the kind of populist far right and this (00:27:09): really quite kind of worrying trends towards authoritarianism and this neo-populism (00:27:14): that's creeping at the edges of European democracy and threatening to undermine it (00:27:20): at any given moment. (00:27:21): And I think that the energy story is a key element to that trend. (00:27:26): And there is one final element I'd like to discuss around the whole kind of energy (00:27:33): gas weaponization theme, (00:27:35): and it's something that Energy Flux covered in a recent Deep Dive article, (00:27:39): and that's how Russian forces are now systematically using the gas weapon in a (00:27:45): different way, (00:27:46): and that's to destroy Ukraine's ability to produce its own domestic gas resources (00:27:51): and weaken Kiev's hand at this critical moment in the conflict. (00:27:55): I won't go into that in too much depth, (00:27:57): but I just raised that point to kind of underscore why there's so much resistance (00:28:03): to this idea of allowing Russian gas back in again and why the ban has been (00:28:07): introduced now in the way it has been or is being introduced and proposed. (00:28:12): But the Ukraine gas production story, that really is a very separate story to Nord Stream. (00:28:17): And it's worth reading as well. (00:28:19): So you can read that story in full on the Energy Flux website. (00:28:23): Just go to www.energyflux.news and don't forget to sign up for a subscription while (00:28:30): you're at it. (00:28:32): In conclusion, I'd say that Nord Stream 2's fate, or its likely fate, is probably just a (00:28:38): sort of quite sorry end really as a as a kind of stranded asset i mean i think (00:28:43): barring just a phenomenal geopolitical u-turn then north stream 2's intact pipeline (00:28:50): will probably just gather rust at the bottom of the baltic sea eu ban german (00:28:56): opposition sanctions they all leave very little room for a revival and there has (00:29:01): been some chatter around repurposing it for hydrogen making it part of europe's (00:29:06): hydrogen backbone which (00:29:07): I definitely won't get into now, (00:29:09): but it's technically possible, (00:29:10): but eye-wateringly expensive, (00:29:12): and the market really just isn't there, (00:29:14): isn't ready for that kind of investment now. (00:29:16): So the pipeline's really an 11 billion euro relic, (00:29:19): symbol of Europe's sort of energy divorce from Russia, (00:29:22): if you like. (00:29:23): I'd say the legal and political barriers are thicker than Baltic ice, (00:29:28): and the less the peace talks rewrite the rules, (00:29:30): then this pipeline's future is, (00:29:33): pardon the pun, (00:29:34): deep underwater. (00:29:36): So, Mark, thank you. (00:29:38): What a great question and really enjoyed getting into the weeds of that one. (00:29:42): And remember, (00:29:43): if you want to have your own energy question answered in depth on the Energy Flux (00:29:47): On Air podcast, (00:29:49): then go take out a subscription. (00:29:51): Head on over to www.energyflux.news. (00:29:55): You can sign up for free emails just to kind of get a feel for what it's like. (00:29:59): But if you want to get all of the exciting analysis, (00:30:01): all the deep dives, (00:30:02): all the charts, (00:30:03): the EU LNG chart deck, (00:30:05): You want to be able to comment on all the posts, (00:30:08): join the community, (00:30:09): raise questions for the pod, (00:30:11): then take out a paid subscription. (00:30:13): All the details are on the website. (00:30:15): And all I can say is go check it out. (00:30:17): Thank you for listening. (00:30:18): It's been a joy as ever. (00:30:21): And I'll see you again next time. Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

13. 

    28 Apr 2025

    🎧 Fickle trade war takes its toll on LNG demand

    The US-China trade war has rewritten the macroeconomic outlook for 2025, and with it the global demand picture for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Swingeing import tariffs could be lifted just as quickly as they were introduced. However, even a swift resolution at this stage would be unlikely to purge the bearish sentiment now dominating the European natural gas market. This episode catches up on the many market-moving events of recent weeks, with a focus on disruption to energy trade, relaxation of the EU’s gas storage targets, and bearish factors weighing on the summer gas demand outlook. In the reader Q&A, I fielded questions relating to my recent take (https://www.energyflux.news/p/phase-shift) on the shift to a new lower pricing regime, and the risks posed by a cratering price environment to customers buying US LNG (https://www.energyflux.news/p/the-big-squeeze). I also share my thoughts on The New Joule Order (https://www.carlyle.com/global-insights/research/the-new-joule-order), a thought-provoking essay from esteemed energy commodities analyst Jeff Currie. The full transcript is included below. Thanks for listening, — Seb P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉 More from Energy Flux: Episode transcript: (00:00:19): Hi there, and welcome back to Energy Flux On Air. (00:00:23): I'm your host, (00:00:24): Seb Kennedy, (00:00:25): founding editor of Energy Flux, (00:00:28): the energy newsletter analyzing European natural gas and global LNG markets through (00:00:34): the lens of Europe's energy transition and global geopolitics. (00:00:38): It's been quite a while since my last episode. (00:00:41): I've been quite busy with the house move, transatlantic travel, Easter break. (00:00:45): So apologies for those of you who have missed energy flux on air. (00:00:50): I've been dying to get back into the studio to talk over everything going on in (00:00:53): energy markets and the global geopolitical panorama. (00:00:56): And I finally found time and I'm hoping to get back onto a more regular recording schedule. (00:01:02): To give a measure of how much time has elapsed since the last episode, (00:01:05): the price of European gas traded on the Tidal Transfer Facility, (00:01:10): that's the TTF, (00:01:11): the European benchmark, (00:01:12): has dropped from more than 43 euros per megawatt hour on the 19th of March to less (00:01:18): than 32 euros at the end of last week. (00:01:21): That's a drop of more than a quarter in barely more than a month. (00:01:25): Since the last episode, (00:01:27): we've had Liberation Day, (00:01:28): the start of a bitter Sino-US trade war with both sides seemingly entrenched, (00:01:34): a stock market shock, (00:01:35): bond markets wavering, (00:01:37): dollar devaluation and a rewriting of both the global macroeconomic script and the (00:01:42): security guarantees. (00:01:43): that underpinned 80 years of global trade since the Second World War. (00:01:48): So TTF settled on Friday below €32 per megawatt hour, (00:01:52): but that's the first time it's been that low in a year. (00:01:55): €32 is approximately $10.80 per MMBTU. (00:02:01): And that sell-off has, (00:02:03): as usual, (00:02:04): correlated quite strongly with a sell-off in hedge fund long positions. (00:02:09): The hedge funds that bet on the future price of TTF, as you'll recall, they had an eye-watering (00:02:16): net long position of 292 terawatt hours and that was in February when the price on (00:02:24): TTF was reaching for 60 euros per megawatt hour we've seen massive liquidations two (00:02:30): big sell-off periods in February and in April April of course being triggered by (00:02:34): the Liberation Day trade war which I mentioned at the start net position went from (00:02:38): 292 terawatt hours to just 86 terawatt hours (00:02:42): or a 15 billion euros long bet to a 5 billion bet. (00:02:48): So essentially the hedge funds have sold off 10 billion euros worth of length in (00:02:54): TTF futures since February. (00:02:57): But I don't think the sell-off has finished. (00:03:00): And the reason I say that is because if you go back 12 months to when TTF was last (00:03:06): trading at around about the 32 euro per megawatt hour mark, (00:03:11): then at that point, (00:03:13): hedge funds had a net bullish position of, (00:03:17): on average, (00:03:17): 62 terawatt hours throughout April 2024. (00:03:20): And we're currently 86 terawatt hours. (00:03:24): So if anything, (00:03:26): you could say that while the momentum is towards further sell-off, (00:03:30): to the extent that the historical correlation between price levels and net position (00:03:35): is an indicator of where equilibrium lies, (00:03:38): then you could argue that (00:03:39): further sell-offs are required to get down to sort of 62-ish terawatt hours. (00:03:44): And depending on how bearish this summer turns out to be in terms of physical demand, (00:03:49): policy changes, (00:03:50): geopolitical developments, (00:03:52): then it's entirely feasible to imagine there being, (00:03:56): I mean, (00:03:56): you know, (00:03:57): the hedge funds, (00:03:57): they do go net short. (00:04:00): um when the market flips extremely bearish so it's not out of the question that the (00:04:04): entire net position could be sold off and hedge funds could start shorting ttf on a (00:04:09): net basis anyway so since the last episode there's also been some interesting (00:04:12): developments on the policy front so the european parliament's energy committee has (00:04:16): voted to lower the eu's gas storage targets to 83 by the first of november and to (00:04:24): scrap the intermediary targets (00:04:26): So you'll recall the EU has this target. (00:04:28): Everybody had to reach a certain percentage fill level every two months throughout (00:04:33): the filling season. (00:04:34): But that's probably not going to matter. (00:04:36): There have been several policy suggestions and proposals and it's all open to negotiation still. (00:04:42): But the direction of travel is very firmly towards a place where it looks like the (00:04:47): gas storage targets essentially are meaningless. (00:04:50): And they're just a guide because... (00:04:53): you know after all is said and done after everybody's negotiated and the (00:04:57): derogations have been issued and the exceptions have been carved out what really (00:05:01): matters is is there a penalty for non-compliance for falling short of your gas (00:05:07): storage fill level and there never really was one and there were measures that (00:05:10): could be taken but there was never actually a financial penalty to be levied upon (00:05:14): the gas storage operators and i did say last year you need to watch their behavior (00:05:18): the gas storage operators to what extent are they going to comply (00:05:22): um and potentially not necessarily bankrupt themselves but you know lose a lot of (00:05:26): money just in the name of compliance with an arbitrary target for refilling these (00:05:31): massive underground gas storage facilities and evidently uh i think when there's no (00:05:37): penalty then it's an easy decision to take you know why would you lose money (00:05:41): storing expensive gas to sell it at a loss in the future and pay all the storage (00:05:45): costs associated with that just to comply with a target which (00:05:49): is only arbitrary and doesn't carry a penalty for non-compliance so i think that (00:05:53): one was quite easy to predict and it seems like it's going to be that way this year (00:05:57): not to say that europe doesn't need to buy gas this summer absolutely does need to (00:06:01): buy gas needs to get some gas into storage for next winter but (00:06:05): The physical panorama in the market is looking relatively loose. (00:06:08): We've got some new LNG projects coming on stream this summer. (00:06:12): The pan-EU scramble to procure gas will not occur in a way that drives up prices, (00:06:19): and there will be probably more measured procurements, (00:06:22): and I think (00:06:23): paying very close attention to the price spreads, (00:06:26): calendar spreads, (00:06:27): to make sure that the gas storage operators aren't taking on an undue amount of (00:06:31): price risk by storing gas at prices they can't then recover their costs from. (00:06:37): So the TTF term structure is now pretty flat. (00:06:41): The negative spreads that were blighting the markets over the kind of tight winter (00:06:47): months when the bull run was in full swing, (00:06:49): those essentially corrected themselves. (00:06:52): So we did have a situation where gas was cheaper in the future than in the present (00:06:58): month or the front month. (00:06:59): And obviously that was a big disincentive for storing because you wouldn't store (00:07:03): something that's going to get less valuable over time and incur costs for doing so. (00:07:07): but still the the signal the market signal for storing gas is very weak you need to (00:07:15): have a sufficient spread between the price of gas at the time of procurement and (00:07:22): the winter months when you're hedging in your sales to obviously cover your costs (00:07:28): your storage costs your cost of capital and hopefully you know to make a margin if (00:07:32): you're a (00:07:33): If you're a commercial player, not all gas storage operators are. (00:07:36): Some are mandated to operate in a strategic way, (00:07:39): but some are commercial operators and they do need to make some money. (00:07:42): But either way, none of them want to lose money. (00:07:43): A negative spread would have implied a loss on storage, which is why there was this... (00:07:49): Debates in Europe about, (00:07:50): well, (00:07:50): do we subsidise the cost of refilling our gas storage facilities? (00:07:54): I don't think that's going to happen now. (00:07:55): It doesn't seem necessary. (00:07:57): And there is a much more relaxed approach to how the gas storage capacity in Europe (00:08:02): should be managed. (00:08:03): That's only a good thing, (00:08:04): because it seems that politicians are taking a much more realistic view to... (00:08:09): how the gas market will pan out over the next sort of 12 to 18 months. (00:08:14): When, (00:08:14): of course, (00:08:15): if you've been reading energy flux, (00:08:16): you'll be aware that my view is very strongly that we're heading towards a new (00:08:21): pricing regime because of the way that the global liquefied natural gas market is (00:08:27): developing with the onset of new supply, (00:08:31): which is coming into the market at a rate that exceeds the rate of demand growth. (00:08:36): So if the supply growth outstrips demand growth, (00:08:38): then you have a loose market where there is a kind of nominal surplus. (00:08:45): And that will just mean that prices have to go lower in order for the market to (00:08:49): find its equilibrium and then for that supply to be soaked up. (00:08:54): And you will see that happen. (00:08:55): You will see price sensitive demand come back into the markets in markets like Bangladesh, (00:09:00): Pakistan. (00:09:00): Pakistan, maybe Vietnam, where you'll see energy imports increase as the price goes lower. (00:09:06): But right now we're seeing, (00:09:08): in terms of the physical balances, (00:09:10): EU energy imports hit a record in the first quarter of 2025. (00:09:13): They dropped off in April. (00:09:15): as demand fell away. (00:09:17): Asian demand is also very soft. (00:09:19): We've seen Chinese imports flagging quite a bit. (00:09:21): Weekly imports of LNG have come in at the lower end of the five-year range since (00:09:26): late 2024 and throughout 2025, (00:09:28): according to data from data provider Kepler. (00:09:31): And Kepler, (00:09:32): in fact, (00:09:32): their analysts ran some interesting figures recently around the way that the softer (00:09:38): macroeconomic outlook was impacting gas markets or likely to impact gas markets. (00:09:43): And while this isn't their central scenario, (00:09:45): they did say, (00:09:46): let's have a look at the worst case macro scenario in combination with the (00:09:49): potential for a cool summer. (00:09:51): So rather than there being lots and lots of heat waves where you have lots of (00:09:56): cooling demand for running air conditioning, (00:09:58): driving power prices crazy and people shipping in LNG vessels to fire those gas (00:10:03): turbines to run the AC units. (00:10:06): If you get a cool summer where that doesn't happen, plus you get like the worst possible... (00:10:11): macroeconomic outlook from a trade war, (00:10:14): then essentially you are looking at 7.5 million tonnes of LNG demand disappearing (00:10:20): from the market. (00:10:22): 7.5 MT, (00:10:23): that's an equivalent of about one month of EU LNG demand, (00:10:27): like an entire month of LNG imports for the whole of the EU just gone. (00:10:32): That kind of bearish view was backed up by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, (00:10:36): which says that a year-on-year decline in EU gas demand is a very real possibility (00:10:42): for this year. (00:10:43): So in summary, I'd say the market's looking very bearish. (00:10:46): The bearish setup is undeniable. (00:10:48): And it seems like there won't even be a sort of policy-induced scramble to inject (00:10:53): gas into storage facilities in Europe to support LNG demand this summer. (00:10:56): So it'll be interesting to see... (00:10:58): quite where the equilibrium lies, (00:11:00): how low the prices go this summer, (00:11:02): because obviously there will be some procurements. (00:11:04): But at the same time, the industrial sector is very much on its knees still. (00:11:08): There's no signs of an industrial recovery on the horizon. (00:11:13): And the power sector, (00:11:14): we're already seeing very, (00:11:16): very steep negative pricing in the power sector in day-ahead markets. (00:11:19): We saw all across continental Europe today. (00:11:21): This is Sunday, the 27th of April, I'm recording. (00:11:24): And many parts of North, Central and Western Europe were registering negative prices. (00:11:30): So you're not going to see any gas-fired generation dispatching when power prices (00:11:35): are minus 10, (00:11:35): 20, (00:11:36): 100 euros per megawatt hour. (00:11:41): Now, moving on to reader questions. (00:11:44): So James in Adelaide, he's written in to say, (00:11:56): I'm not sure I would call $11 gas, quote unquote, glut economics. (00:12:02): And that's a phrase that I used in a recent piece in Energy Flux, (00:12:06): saying that the correction and sell-off, (00:12:09): taking gas down to the equivalent of $11 per mbtu was sort of a signal of a glut coming. (00:12:15): James carries on, he says, I guess the question is, where do we settle as a floor? (00:12:19): in the coming years and for how long and he says anecdotally by the way I was in (00:12:23): Europe a fortnight ago and most corporates as in utilities and LNG producers were (00:12:27): saying that between 50 and 70 billion cubic meters per annum of Russian gas is (00:12:32): going to come back including a certain French super major naming no names who said (00:12:37): that 80 BCM could return but they're still buying US LNG (00:12:41): In which case, (00:12:42): do we bump along a sort of $6 MMBTU floor for several years because of a US (00:12:47): capacity overbuild? (00:12:48): And who wears the most pain? (00:12:50): Likely the portfolio players buying USLNG that haven't sold to an end customer yet. (00:12:56): And maybe the utilities and the emerging markets are the winners. (00:12:59): Interested in your take. (00:13:01): Well, (00:13:02): hey, (00:13:02): James, (00:13:02): that's like just excellent questions and really interesting perspective on the kind (00:13:07): of mood music coming from the European corporates. (00:13:10): And I mean, (00:13:11): I just say that when I started covering gas in 2016, (00:13:13): then yeah, (00:13:14): like $11 from BTU was a winter spike and definitely not a correction or a phase shift. (00:13:20): which is what I've been calling the current state of the market, (00:13:24): shifting from one price phase to another. (00:13:26): So I take your point about glut economics. (00:13:29): And I'd say that a $6 floor sounds feasible. (00:13:32): I mean, at this price, some US LNG shut-ins seem inevitable. (00:13:37): And I'll talk about those in a minute. (00:13:38): And you can imagine also the off-takers, (00:13:40): the customers of the US LNG plants, (00:13:42): that they're going to get burnt if TTF is trading at $6 because they're going to be (00:13:47): losing money on (00:13:48): every single cargo that they lift at that price because the cost of lifting, (00:13:52): liquefaction and shipping across the Atlantic, (00:13:55): regasification is going to come in at much more than $6 per MMBTU. (00:14:00): I'd say, yeah, the portfolio players are most exposed. (00:14:02): Those are the likes of Shell and Total Energies who have big offtake commitments, (00:14:07): who have to then find an end user to sell the LNG onto. (00:14:12): And they always have a very rosy view of demand. (00:14:14): They're extremely long on LNG production, LNG supply. (00:14:18): carry all this long risk on their books because they know that demand will rise and (00:14:23): they'll be able to offload those cargoes in a profitable way. (00:14:26): And also make lots of money around trading and portfolio optimisation and basically (00:14:30): arbitraging away all of the inefficiencies in the global LNG market, (00:14:34): of which there are many, (00:14:35): I might add, (00:14:36): particularly because we have a trade war going on now. (00:14:38): But I think that their view is probably a little bit too rosy the way that things (00:14:43): are panning out. (00:14:44): So, (00:14:44): yeah, (00:14:44): the portfolio players, (00:14:45): they're very exposed, (00:14:46): but so are end users, (00:14:47): as in like the utilities and the industrials. (00:14:50): So the likes of BASF, (00:14:51): the big German chemical company, (00:14:53): they're on the hook for quite a large volume of US LNG from Chenier. (00:14:59): And that sales and purchase agreement comes into effect this year or next year. (00:15:04): I can't quite remember. (00:15:05): But the point is that if these industrials, (00:15:07): they can't physically use the gas, (00:15:09): like if they don't have enough demand for their products, (00:15:11): whatever they may be, (00:15:12): and they have to resell these cargoes at a loss on the TTF or cancel the cargoes (00:15:17): and purchase. (00:15:18): pay the take or pay fee to the US LNG exporters, they're going to be losing a lot of money. (00:15:23): So you've got to ask yourself whether they're going to be in hot water as well. (00:15:26): Again, (00:15:27): it depends on industrial demand, (00:15:29): demand for products which are manufactured in Europe, (00:15:32): energy intensive products. (00:15:33): And you've got to say that the outlook... (00:15:35): is is pretty bearish on that front too i mean we're going to have a glut of chinese (00:15:39): products just hitting the market because they've got nowhere to go literally there (00:15:44): are cargo ships that are stuck in ports in china all loaded with all manner of (00:15:49): products and they've got nowhere to go because they can't go to the us because (00:15:53): there's 140 something percent tariff on chinese goods in america (00:15:57): and no one's going to pay those tariffs on those goods. (00:15:59): So where's all this Chinese stuff going to go? (00:16:02): You're going to have just a massive wave of cheap Chinese produce hitting European ports, (00:16:06): being imported all over the place, (00:16:08): Africa, (00:16:09): across the rest of Asia, (00:16:11): South America. (00:16:12): And so it's very hard for European industrials to compete against that kind of (00:16:18): tidal wave of cheap produce. (00:16:20): So it's not looking good for industrial demand, (00:16:22): and so all the people who have signed up for LNG, (00:16:24): they could be in for a nasty surprise. (00:16:27): But on the question of USLNG, (00:16:29): I'm glad you brought that up, (00:16:30): James, (00:16:30): because I have actually, (00:16:32): since you wrote that question, (00:16:34): published a quite interesting deep dive on the economics of USLNG. (00:16:38): And I created a new data model to take a look at the economics of USLNG. (00:16:44): So I talked about that just now, like the cost of delivering USLNG into different markets. (00:16:48): like Europe and Asia when you when you break it all down then like the the cost (00:16:52): base is pretty high even though like shale gas in the US is is really cheap and (00:16:57): often like free or even negatively priced at the wellhead and you still got to like (00:17:01): transport it to the Gulf Coast you've got to cover the costs of a liquefaction (00:17:05): facility you've got to pay the cost of shipping fuel bunker fuel and then you've (00:17:09): got to pay the cost of regasification at the other end once you add all those costs (00:17:13): up and you deduct them from the sales price that's your margin and they call it the (00:17:17): net back (00:17:18): but it's just the kind of the profit level, the gross profit. (00:17:20): And the netback on USLNG, selling USLNG into Europe, has fallen really quite dramatically. (00:17:27): I mean, (00:17:27): this is no news to anybody that follows this stuff, (00:17:30): but they've fallen 90% since the peak just in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion (00:17:36): in 2022. (00:17:36): Back then, a single cargo of USLNG... (00:17:41): was fetching a netback of around about $200 million. (00:17:46): And you think there were hundreds of these ships all crossing the Atlantic like an (00:17:51): armada and each one was carrying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gas (00:17:55): because the Europeans were bidding up the price. (00:17:57): Well, you know, it's really crashed since then. (00:17:59): You know, you're looking at about $20 million. (00:18:03): per cargo currently and that's falling fast so we can calculate what the margins (00:18:09): are today but also in the future by looking at the futures market so you can look (00:18:13): at the future price of henry hub the future price of ttf the future price of jkm (00:18:18): which is the spot price in asia we can also look at the future price of shipping (00:18:23): which is actually very cheap at the moment but even so the margins are just on a (00:18:27): kind of very steep downward trajectory they're going to (00:18:30): crash between now and 2028 so the margin on uslng will actually be zero or negative (00:18:38): by 2028 in europe and by 2030 they'll be negative in asia as well and that's only (00:18:45): based on current futures pricing that doesn't take into account how prices could (00:18:50): still change between now and then (00:18:52): And I just can't see any really major bullish drivers on the horizon between now (00:18:57): and 2028 that could offset that kind of secular decline in margins in sales prices (00:19:04): for gas for all the reasons I've been talking about so far in this podcast. (00:19:08): So, yeah, it's looking pretty bad for US LNG producers. (00:19:12): And obviously, when margins... (00:19:13): flip negative, then they stay negative for quite a long time. (00:19:17): Then there's the very real possibility that plants will be shut in. (00:19:20): And I see the US as essentially becoming the swing producer for liquefied natural (00:19:26): gas in the second half of this decade. (00:19:29): So that means that they will essentially fire up plants and then shut them down again, (00:19:34): depending on the kind of physical state of the market. (00:19:37): And, (00:19:37): you know, (00:19:38): if supply curtailments are required to balance the market, (00:19:41): then they'll be among the first to shut in. (00:19:44): Because of the way that their contracts are structured, (00:19:46): because of their relatively high cost base and the flexibility that they afford in (00:19:50): their commercial contracts with customers, (00:19:53): You're going to see the very real possibility of US LNG shut-ins, (00:19:57): kind of like what happened during COVID when there were these lockdowns and energy (00:20:01): demand across the board was quite quickly and tightly squeezed. (00:20:06): And as a result, you saw a big sell-off in commodities. (00:20:09): All commodity prices fell and oil, of course, famously settled at negative. (00:20:13): Well, (00:20:13): the price of American oil, (00:20:15): the West Texas Intermediate, (00:20:17): settled at negative pricing in 2020 and gas prices went very, (00:20:21): very low too. (00:20:22): We saw lots and lots of LNG cargoes cancelled and plants shut in until prices recovered. (00:20:28): So I do see that happening again. (00:20:30): in the next sort of two, three years. (00:20:32): So yeah, just a kind of final note on that. (00:20:34): So futures markets, (00:20:35): those negative margins, (00:20:37): they're based on TTF hitting a low of $8, (00:20:41): the equivalent of $8 per MMBTU in summer 2029. (00:20:46): So even if TTF only falls by another, what is it? (00:20:49): If it's about just over $10 now and you're going down to eighth, (00:20:53): then you're only looking at like, (00:20:54): what's that? (00:20:54): One fifth, around about one fifth reduction in the current pricing between now and 2029. (00:21:00): And you're already going to hit negative US LNG margins. (00:21:04): I mean, (00:21:04): I see the possibility for TTF prices to fall by one fifth this year, (00:21:09): let alone between now and the year 2029, (00:21:12): when we have an absolute wall of new LNG supply hitting the market relative to very (00:21:18): kind of flat demand growth. (00:21:19): so i just don't really see a way for us lng margins to stay in positive territory (00:21:24): and that's going to make it very difficult for new projects that want to get off (00:21:27): the drawing board that want to sell lng to customers and then you know get these (00:21:32): binding purchase agreements to take to the banks to get finance to build their (00:21:36): projects i just don't see that happening i just don't see how you can sell lng into (00:21:41): a market that's kind of cratering towards negative margins that it just doesn't add (00:21:44): up to me but (00:21:45): Maybe I'm wrong. (00:21:45): Maybe they'll pull a rabbit out of the hat somehow. (00:21:47): We'll see. (00:21:49): Oh, yeah. (00:21:49): And just one more thing I thought was worth pointing out that if TTF does hit $6 (00:21:55): per MBTU equivalent, (00:21:55): then in 2028, (00:21:56): that would imply... (00:22:03): a loss of 8.2 million dollars per cargo so if you were to to you know produce an (00:22:09): lng cargo at the future price of a henry hub in 2028 whatever that is and like lock (00:22:15): in the cost of shipping now and and then you had to sell at six dollars per mbtu (00:22:19): then you'd be losing eight more than eight million dollars on that trade so so i (00:22:24): think that's entirely feasible (00:22:26): Now, next question. (00:22:27): Carled in, I think he's in New York. (00:22:29): He says, Hi Seb, thank you for all the interesting content and insights. (00:22:33): I wanted to share with you this report from Jeff Curry and see if you can share (00:22:38): your feedback on it in your next podcast. (00:22:40): Carled's referring to a report called The New Jewel Order by Jeff Curry, (00:22:46): who's the Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, (00:22:49): which is an investment house. (00:22:51): and curry was of course formerly their global head of commodities research at (00:22:55): goldman sachs where he helped to build their commodities business over nearly a (00:22:58): three-decade career and very well regarded high-steemed gentleman jeff curry and i (00:23:02): always pay attention to the things he says and writes the new jewel order i'll put (00:23:06): a link in the show notes and it really does make for compelling reading because it (00:23:10): was published a few weeks ago now and everything that's happened since kind of does (00:23:15): corroborate the world view that he he describes (00:23:18): It's a really sweeping view of the post-Second World War energy geopolitical panorama. (00:23:23): He talks about how the Bretton Woods Accord underpinned global trade and US energy (00:23:28): import dependence created an incentive for the US to protect shipping lanes and how (00:23:34): all of that is coming crashing down around us. (00:23:37): Not solely because of Donald Trump and the kind of cack-handed way that he's trying (00:23:41): to correct America's enormous trade deficit, (00:23:44): but certainly his actions are accelerating this sort of slow burn trend. (00:23:49): They're bringing it right to the forefront of what's driving global markets and (00:23:54): global geopolitics. (00:23:55): And it was kind of something that was happening on a very, (00:23:57): very much slower basis until now, (00:24:00): but now it's kind of impossible to ignore. (00:24:02): The Bretton Woods Accord, (00:24:04): of course, (00:24:04): established the US dollar as the global reserve currency, (00:24:08): facilitated international trade and investment, (00:24:10): and this gave the United States both a strong dollar and the means of financing the (00:24:14): enormous debts that come with maintaining its military. (00:24:17): It also, (00:24:18): of course, (00:24:18): gave rose to the petrodollar, (00:24:20): which is just the name given to dollars received by crude oil exporting countries, (00:24:26): and the way that those countries kind of reinvest those dollars in things like U.S. (00:24:31): treasuries, U.S. (00:24:31): debt. (00:24:32): So U.S. (00:24:33): energy independence has changed all that, because this whole structure worked because the U.S. (00:24:38): was just a massive consumer market with massive energy needs, (00:24:42): massive trade import needs, (00:24:44): and so they had this incentive to protect the sea lanes. (00:24:47): to make sure they got the products and the commodities that they needed to keep (00:24:49): their industrial economy running. (00:24:51): But of course, that's all changing now. (00:24:53): The US has energy independence to an extent. (00:24:56): I mean, (00:24:56): it still requires energy trade, (00:24:58): but on a kind of net basis, (00:24:59): then it does export more energy, (00:25:01): as in oil and gas principally, (00:25:04): than it imports. (00:25:05): And LNG, of course, is a massive part of that. (00:25:07): So the shale revolution made the nation a net petroleum exporter, (00:25:11): and that's decreased US interest in protecting sea lanes, (00:25:15): writes Jeff Curry in this report. (00:25:17): And because he says the United States is now energy independent, (00:25:21): it's not safe for other countries to be energy dependent. (00:25:24): And I thought that's such an interesting way to put it, (00:25:26): because if you think about it, (00:25:27): being energy dependent... (00:25:30): In a world where, (00:25:32): you know, (00:25:32): the kind of the trade lines that ensure that tankers of oil and gas turn up not (00:25:37): being protected anymore, (00:25:38): then, (00:25:39): you know, (00:25:39): your energy security is at risk. (00:25:41): And I think Europe is a really, really good example of that. (00:25:43): You know, Europe is heavily, heavily dependent on energy imports. (00:25:49): 54% of all European energy consumption is imported from overseas. (00:25:54): And if you're seeing a trade war, (00:25:55): you're seeing things like gunboats in the Red Sea, (00:25:59): and you're seeing the Suez Canal being unnavigable due to security constraints, (00:26:04): and other potential conflicts like pinch points like the Malacca Strait in Asia, (00:26:09): or even a military invasion of Taiwan... (00:26:12): Or, (00:26:12): you know, (00:26:13): in the Strait of Hormuz, (00:26:14): of course, (00:26:15): that could severely disrupt and spike energy prices. (00:26:20): So for importing countries, those are major, major risks to your economic security. (00:26:25): And that's kind of what Jeff Curry's talking about. (00:26:27): And I think on that point, then, he makes some really interesting and valuable observations. (00:26:32): It goes on to write about how the green premium is being replaced by a security premium. (00:26:38): So zero interest rate environment made renewable energy bets cheap because you (00:26:42): could essentially bet on future revenues by making losses now because the cost of (00:26:46): doing so was essentially zero or negative. (00:26:48): And the return to higher rates with a kind of slightly more inflationary (00:26:51): environment requires more targeted capital allocation. (00:26:55): so rather than kind of betting on you know wonderful new offshore wind growth (00:26:59): markets in exotic parts of the world you might kind of retrench around well okay (00:27:03): what's the the kind of the local supply that we need right now to keep our (00:27:07): economies running and those are the most valuable investments to make (00:27:11): renewables and nuclear are local energy sources and they're not traded over long (00:27:14): distances so therefore they're in higher demand argues curry and he says that (00:27:19): fossil fuels are under threat from the trade war and he says that peak oil has (00:27:24): manifest but in the sense that it's actually peak oil trade so we're not going to (00:27:29): see oil traded in the way that we do currently ever again frankly (00:27:34): And he cites China's falling oil imports as a kind of evidence for that. (00:27:39): And that was really the product of strategic planning for energy security decades ago. (00:27:44): And we've seen how China's embrace of electric vehicles is really motivated by this (00:27:50): desire to liberate itself from the trappings of having to do business with OPEC leaders. (00:27:56): And obviously, if you can electrify your economy, (00:28:00): and you have just the world's most enormous coal reserves, (00:28:04): massive wind and solar build-out, (00:28:07): kind of world-beating nuclear development program, (00:28:10): then obviously, (00:28:11): you know, (00:28:11): the role of oil in your economy is going to be reduced significantly, (00:28:15): and you're protected from things like a trade war. (00:28:17): So if oil becomes more expensive, (00:28:19): less reliable, (00:28:20): less accessible, (00:28:20): you know, (00:28:21): you've got backup options. (00:28:22): And I think that's how the Chinese have approached this thing. (00:28:25): They always take the long view, and they're in a much... (00:28:27): sort of stronger position than somewhere like europe for example which has always (00:28:31): been very much kind of a kind of open trade approach and relying on on kind of the (00:28:39): supply lines that have kept the global economy running and just assuming that you (00:28:43): know the energy the products will always turn up will always be able to trade well (00:28:47): hey, look what's happening. (00:28:48): That's not the case anymore. (00:28:50): And if you don't take corrective measures very quickly, (00:28:53): then you're going to find that essentially living standards are going to take a (00:28:56): very strong hit. (00:28:57): In fact, they are taking a very heavy hit in this current macroeconomic environment. (00:29:02): um so so i'd say like like jeff curry's view is is very interesting very (00:29:07): thought-provoking i agree with a great deal of it not all of it i must say i mean (00:29:10): you know wind solar and nuclear they are not immune from a trade war you know let's (00:29:14): be clear that a lot of the um the critical minerals and the (00:29:18): the components that are required to build these energy sources, (00:29:22): they are very much controlled by the Chinese too. (00:29:25): And if there's a trade war and those supply lines get disrupted, (00:29:28): the growth of renewables particularly are under threat. (00:29:33): China essentially owns the supply lines and the refining and processing capacity (00:29:37): for these new and cleaner energy sources. (00:29:40): And so I'd say that the security paradigm, it's not entirely supportive of this kind of (00:29:46): security premium that supports renewables unless of course it's complemented by (00:29:51): balancing technology and infrastructure so you know that means we need to get (00:29:56): things like batteries and more transmission infrastructure to to be able to to (00:30:01): ensure that these supplies are robust as well and because you know they need to be (00:30:05): they need to be secure and they need to be 24 7 availability and um and obviously (00:30:10): the demand side needs to needs to be able to flex with sort of digitalization and (00:30:15): technology (00:30:15): and AI and big data and all these things, (00:30:19): which I've just described, (00:30:20): all these technologies that are extremely exciting and doing wonderful things and (00:30:24): have great potential, (00:30:25): they're all exposed as well. (00:30:26): You know, like where are you going to get your semiconductors from? (00:30:29): Where are you going to get your copper from? (00:30:31): It's like it's out there, (00:30:33): like they can be made, (00:30:34): but the trade war does change the way that you look at these things. (00:30:38): So yeah, there's a real kind of question mark. (00:30:43): around the extent to which disruption might affect the outlook for those investment (00:30:47): prospects or not, (00:30:49): of course, (00:30:49): because this whole situation is essentially, (00:30:53): it's a kind of, (00:30:54): what's the word? (00:30:55): It's something that's been kind of pushed to the front of the global priority on (00:31:01): the whim of a man who wants to make his mark on the world. (00:31:05): And I think that he's going to be (00:31:06): He's going to have to kind of acknowledge reality sooner or later. (00:31:10): You know, I mean, I'm going to speak frankly here. (00:31:12): The guy was elected on a tidal wave of b******t. (00:31:15): I mean, (00:31:15): I've never seen so many lies told by a single human being in a single electoral campaign. (00:31:20): And that's really saying something. (00:31:21): And, you know, it's like you can't have your cake and eat it. (00:31:24): I don't think that there's really a kind of sound strategy behind this trade war. (00:31:30): It's very much a lot of bluster, a lot of noise. (00:31:32): And the minute that American shelves in American supermarkets go empty and, (00:31:37): you know, (00:31:37): the kind of the MAGA faithful are having to pay... (00:31:40): twenty dollars for a loaf of bread or whatever it might turn out to be or they (00:31:43): simply can't get hold of all the things they need to live their lives then you you (00:31:48): know what's going to happen there's going to be enormous pressure for this man (00:31:52): donald trump of course i'm talking about to take a step back and say well actually (00:31:56): you know what we can't just bully china and all our other trade partners into (00:32:00): submission we have to actually do deals with them which take into account the fact (00:32:06): that we need them (00:32:07): You know, he doesn't hold all the cards. (00:32:09): America simply can't exercise that kind of belligerence without consequences for (00:32:15): American citizens. (00:32:17): So I think you're going to see Trump kind of go groveling back to Beijing and essentially (00:32:23): Or, (00:32:23): you know, (00:32:24): lower the tariffs and like try to extract some kind of symbolic concession, (00:32:31): which could be something completely meaningless, (00:32:33): which he'll seize on as being the greatest deal that's ever been done in the (00:32:39): history of the world. (00:32:40): Because, (00:32:41): you know, (00:32:41): he's the art of the deal and everything he says and everything he does is just (00:32:44): amazing and blah, (00:32:45): blah, (00:32:45): blah. (00:32:46): It's entirely possible that we'll just see his media allies trying to tell the (00:32:51): world that, (00:32:52): you know, (00:32:54): the black is white and that, (00:32:55): you know, (00:32:55): we've done a deal and that we can kind of climb down and save face. (00:32:59): At least that's how I see this unraveling. (00:33:03): And so that's the outlook as it stands. (00:33:05): I mean, (00:33:06): I do reserve my judgment in the sense that if this happens, (00:33:10): if there's a big kind of climb down on the trade war, (00:33:13): then I could very well readjust my entire outlook in terms of like how this year (00:33:18): could pan out. (00:33:20): If there's a truce and tariffs are kind of significantly wound back and the stock (00:33:26): market rallies and all those ships manage to dock back at American ports again and (00:33:32): you see the stock market rallying, (00:33:34): bonds stabilising, (00:33:35): industrial production kind of whirring back into America. (00:33:39): operation again across um you know in china's industrial seaboard and you see (00:33:44): consumption resuming then of course your natural gas is going to benefit from that (00:33:49): prices are going to elevate because you're going to see more more gas being drawn (00:33:52): into those industrial plants and you're going to see more consumption generally (00:33:55): more power and so that could that could materially change the outlook for this (00:33:59): summer and so you could see like some some price support coming in (00:34:02): I don't think we're likely to see now another crazy bull run like the kind that we (00:34:07): saw last year when TTF went sort of spiralling upwards from about $20 at the start (00:34:15): of 2024. (00:34:15): And it ended the year kind of nosing towards $60 on the basis of a big nothing pie. (00:34:21): And it's now goled off spectacularly since then. (00:34:25): So I don't think we're going to see that happen again, (00:34:27): but we could see things still quite interesting if the kind of global outlook (00:34:33): doesn't quite pan out in the kind of incredibly bearish way that I'm seeing it (00:34:37): right now anyway. (00:34:38): I will see. (00:34:40): okay that's a i think that's probably enough for one episode you've probably heard (00:34:43): enough from me but just a reminder that if you want to get your question asked on (00:34:47): the podcast then don't forget to go and sign up for a subscription over at energy (00:34:52): flux so go to www.energyflux.news and sign up for for free email updates if you (00:34:59): just want to kind of get a feel for it but if you want to get the full shebang you (00:35:02): want to get behind the paywall (00:35:04): If you want to see all the number crunching, (00:35:06): all the data analysis, (00:35:08): all the data modeling that I'm getting up to, (00:35:10): if you want to be able to ask questions in the subscriber chat, (00:35:13): you want to be able to get your questions answered on the podcast or just make (00:35:17): comments on posts and everything, (00:35:19): then take out a paid subscription, (00:35:20): go check it out, (00:35:21): sign up, (00:35:22): and your question could be the next one to be asked on the next episode. (00:35:26): So thank you for listening. (00:35:28): Have a great week, and I'll see you soon. Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

14. 

    19 Mar 2025

    🎧 A ceasefire in name only

    Energy markets are digesting last night’s breaking news that Russia has agreed to a 30-day temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. The ceasefire is limited to energy infrastructure only, meaning Russian forces can continue their military advancements into Ukrainian territory. I recorded this emergency episode of the podcast late last night to share some initial thoughts about what this ‘ceasefire’ means for energy markets, and the wider prospects of a lasting peace settlement. Shortly after uploading the podcast, I read on X (https://x.com/InnaSovsun/status/1902087130958197123) that Russian forces broke the agreement barely 30 minutes after signing it by bombing power infrastructure in Sloviansk… 🤦♂️ As it happens, I have a Deep Dive (https://www.energyflux.news/t/deep-dive) in the works that will explore Russia’s targeted campaign of destruction against Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure since the New Year. That piece will be published very soon — be sure to subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news (https://www.energyflux.news/) to get it delivered straight to your inbox. Thanks for listening. — Seb P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions to this and other energy-related news headlines for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉 Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

15. 

    10 Mar 2025

    🎧 Regulation vs. geopolitics: what's driving EU gas prices?

    This week’s episode of Energy Flux: On Air (https://www.energyflux.news/podcast) is all about the resurgence of geopolitics, rather than regulation, as the primary driving force behind EU natural gas markets. Don’t get me wrong, regulatory risk has not evaporated — far from it. After the apparent relaxation of the EU’s gas storage refilling targets (https://www.energyflux.news/p/the-bear-roars), there’s lingering uncertainty around how existing regulations are being interpreted. But the regulatory standoff generated by the European Commission’s confusing recommendation (https://www.energyflux.news/p/burning-the-house-down) is unlikely to be resolved quickly. In the meantime, the intense geopolitical newsflow emanating from Ukraine and latest round of ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia is a bottomless source of market uncertainty. This was always going to be the case, and I was planning to discuss it all at length in the podcast. But an influx of reader questions on these topics in recent days confirms to my mind that warp speed geopolitical upheaval is the top issue of concern for market players and observers alike. The Energy Flux posts referenced in the pod are as follows: * Burning the house down (http://Burning the house down) * The bear roars (https://www.energyflux.news/p/the-bear-roars) * The ‘wild card’ for TTF in 2025 (https://www.energyflux.news/p/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly?utm_source=publication-search) * Sizing up the LNG glut — parts one (https://www.energyflux.news/p/sizing-up-the-lng-glut-part-1)and two (https://www.energyflux.news/p/sizing-up-the-lng-glut-part-two) Happy listening :) — Seb P.S. Apologies if audio quality is not perfect, I’m still finding my feet with recording equipment and software. More from Energy Flux: Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

16. 

    1 Mar 2025

    🎧 A wild week in EU gas markets

    Welcome back to Energy Flux: On Air (https://www.energyflux.news/podcast), the interactive podcast that delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets. The big story of the week was the wild rollercoaster on Dutch TTF, the European benchmark. I dig into what caused the epic price swings, drawing on my analysis from Thursday’s subscriber-only EU LNG Chart Deck (https://www.energyflux.news/p/the-bear-roars). In response to a reader question, I also discussed the correlation between TTF and Henry Hub — the benchmark for natural gas in North America — and how this is evolving with the unstoppable rise of US LNG. Don’t forget to send me your questions, comments and observations for the next episode. I read everything, and love hearing from listeners. Just hit reply to any email, drop a line in one of the Chat Threads (https://substack.com/chat/74367), or send me a direct message. Remember, you can also listen to the podcast on your favourite platform: * Apple (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/energy-flux-on-air/id1795806284) * Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/show/45u2QbOOtfXDwLZ6oDyvuW?si=83c47ed6d6874f10) * YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcDbICh3ZDbkZl0JC1VE4sCs6jzREGp1V) * Or just search for Energy Flux: On Air wherever you get your podcasts Happy listening! — Seb More from Energy Flux: Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

17. 

    22 Feb 2025

    🎧 Europe is waking up to the TTF speculation problem

    Welcome back to Energy Flux: On Air (https://www.energyflux.news/podcast), the interactive podcast that delves into world of European natural gas and global LNG markets. The main story featured in this week’s show is: * Italy calls for EU investigation into speculation on TTF inflating gas prices (Montel News (https://montelnews.com/news/e7b0db7d-cf29-4a11-8c7a-ebb0028508d0/italy-urges-probe-into-possibility-speculators-inflating-gas), QualEnergia (https://www.qualenergia.it/articoli/cosa-aspettarsi-decreto-contro-caro-energia/)) In response to reader questions, I discussed: * The EU Commission’s draft plan to consider US LNG equity investments to ward off Trump trade war (Politico (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-funding-foreign-lng-projects-lower-prices-draft-plan-commission/)) * The impact of Trump’s incoming 25% steel tariff on US LNG projects * Outlook for prices during the LNG ‘glut’ and potential for demand response from Asian buyers * The excess LNG problem: Japan’s LNG buyers are over-contracted (IEEFA (https://ieefa.org/resources/japans-largest-lng-buyers-have-surplus-problem)) I also referenced the following Energy Flux articles: * Gas, carbon and the geopolitical web (link (https://www.energyflux.news/p/gas-carbon-and-the-geopolitical-web)) * Sizing up the LNG glut (part one (https://www.energyflux.news/p/sizing-up-the-lng-glut-part-1)and two (https://www.energyflux.news/p/sizing-up-the-lng-glut-part-two)) Happy listening! — Seb P.S. If you want to ask a question or make a comment for the next episode, send me a message. I prioritise Q&A requests from paying subscribers 😇 Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

18. 

    11 Feb 2025

    🎧 Energy Flux: On Air 🎧

    Hi there, I am very excited today to be relaunching the Energy Flux podcast 🥳 After the overwhelmingly positive response to my recent run of podcast appearances (https://www.energyflux.news/p/on-the-air), I realised there is huge appetite for audio format news and commentary. As I explain in this introductory episode, the concept is simple: chat through the most interesting headlines and market events of the week, and respond to any questions and observations mailed in from readers. This won’t be a super-slick polished production, but rather a discreet space for people to tune in and engage with Energy Flux in audio form. I’m still figuring out the schedule, length and frequency, but didn’t want to let small details stand in the way of actually getting started. So here goes! If you have any burning questions you would like me to tackle in the next episode, just hit reply to this email or message me via the Substack app. Thanks for listening, — Seb Get full access to Energy Flux at www.energyflux.news/subscribe (https://www.energyflux.news/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

YouTube views

635

Score snapshot 15 Sept 2025

Spotify

5.0 / 5

5 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 40 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

53

Social presence

0

YouTube

66

Engagement

0

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