Election horror show, NFL vs PMs & Guilfoyle’s peril
Alex Keeney and Domer examine the NFL’s escalating fight with prediction markets and what it could mean for Kalshi, sports contracts and the industry’s legal future. In Texas, repeated Ken Paxton controversies have them increasingly confident in James Talarico while searching for longer-shot Democratic upside elsewhere on the ballot. OpenAI’s latest math breakthroughs spark a broader discussion about AGI, catastrophic AI risk and whether markets are prepared for a genuinely disruptive AI event. They also trade the fallout from Kimberly Guilfoyle’s latest controversy and reassess the tightening Maine Senate race after Susan Collins and Troy Jackson hit the debate stage. The show closes with Mike Johnson’s surprisingly candid comments about life after Congress and the latest Oracle and Dunce of the Week.
7 Oct 2026
Nobel Prize, Meatball & scandals 101 | Nick Reynolds & Haakon Gjerløw
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule investigate how far a Democratic wave could reach, with Nick Reynolds explaining why South Carolina remains difficult terrain even as Republicans spend to protect Darlene Graham. Gaetan Dugas breaks down which political scandals actually move voters and where controversy could matter in races from Kansas to Texas. William Keydjani hunts for value beyond the outright winner in Britain’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election, using vote-share and third-place markets to read the future of the UK left. Finally, PRIO acting director Haakon Gjerløw explains how to forecast the Nobel Peace Prize, why humanitarian organizations such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms stand out, and why some of the world’s most famous names still don’t fit the committee’s traditional criteria.
6 Oct 2026
Plague panic, Senate tsunami & trade war | Ryan Jespersen
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine whether an increasingly difficult midterm map is creating value in Democratic longshots from Texas to South Carolina. Trader Nick Pappas looks one election ahead, arguing that November’s winners and losers could immediately reshape prediction markets for AOC, JD Vance, James Talarico, Raphael Warnock and the rest of the 2028 field. The show also investigates the emerging plague scare in Russia and whether traders are pricing panic rather than pandemic risk. Finally, Ryan Jespersen joins from Alberta to explain the province’s separatist vote, Mark Carney’s pipeline breakthrough and how the U.S.–Canada trade war is changing Canadian politics.
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