Why Countries Are Cracking Down on Polymarket and Kalshi
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Brazil banned prediction markets, joining Argentina and Colombia. A hair dryer on a weather sensor and a $409,000 insider bet show why the model does not hold.
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Brazil has banned prediction markets, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shutting down nationwide, citing concerns over investor protection and market integrity. The ban is part of a growing trend of countries restricting access to prediction markets, with the US also facing regulatory challenges.
9 Oct 2026
The Five-Day Delay Test That Exposes Overfit Trading Strategies
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A real edge decays gently when you lag your entries. An overfit one collapses. Delay every signal by five days and see what's left.
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A real edge decays gently when you lag your entries. An overfit one collapses. Delay every signal by five days and see what's left.
8 Oct 2026
Prediction Market Volume Surges to $78.2 Billion as Sports Trading Takes Off
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Prediction markets hit a record $78.2B in September notional volume. A Q3 2026 preview of trading, billion-dollar deal headlines and sports.
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Prediction markets reached a record $78.2 billion in notional volume in September, doubling from the summer lull. The growth was driven by sports, particularly soccer and the NFL, as well as institutional capital flows and billion-dollar deals.
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