About Fundamental issues in risk science – UiS podkast
The podcast series is hosted by Associate Professor Marja Ylönen, featuring professor Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, reflecting on foundational concepts and principles, historical developments, and contemporary debates in the field.
The strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: Rationale and use
Professors Terje Aven and Roger Flage discuss the strength of knowledge concept in risk assessment: why probabilities alone are not enough, how the idea developed from Keynes and NUSAP to contemporary risk science, and how strength of knowledge can be judged and used in practice.
Speakers: Professor Terje Aven and Professor Roger Flage, University of Stavanger.
Series: Fundamental issues in risk science.
How we became interested in the topic 0:55
Historical review: Keynes and logical probabilities 3:05
Paté-Cornell: firm and soft probabilities 6:25
The NUSAP system 7:05
The IPCC approach 10:45
Probability, knowledge and strength of knowledge 14:10
A practical scoring scheme 16:55
From knowledge K to probability P – justification of transformation 18:40
From component judgments to the overall risk assessment 21:50
Strength of knowledge and trustworthiness 22:45
Does SoK make risk assessment too complicated? 23:45
Use in practice and the main challenge 24:20
12 May 2026
The PhD Process: Guidance for Students and Supervisors. An interview with professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Ylönen
In this interview with Professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Ylönen, Aven reveals why paper writing is the real skill of a PhD, how to write every day without burning out, why supervisors must be tough, and why an ambition of ‘changing the world’ is the fastest way to struggle.
What really motivates you to do a PhD?
Why an ambition of “changing the world” will make you struggle
Finding meaning in the small research achievements
Why paper writing (not monographs) is the core of your PhD (2:50)
Writing scientific papers: a skill like learning to ride a bike (3:15)
Daily writing routine that actually gives you progress (4:20)
How often should you meet your supervisor? (5:38)
What supervisors must expect and deliver (6:03)
How to handle tough feedback with humility (6:28)
Starting your first paper – formulating the main idea & contribution (7:12)
Why you should write the abstract BEFORE doing the research (8:57)
Scientific presentations (17:40)
Staying abroad (22:11)
Final advice for students & supervisors (23:22)
Host: Associate Professor Marja Ylönen
Episode transcription (https://podcast.uis.no/media/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science/2026_0318_1404_MASTER.pdf)
25 Jan 2026
Building a World-Class Risk & Safety Science University Centre: Lessons from 45 Years in Stavanger
In this interview with Professor Terje Aven by associate professor Marja Ylönen, Aven reflects on his experience building a world-class risk and safety science center at the University of Stavanger. He shares 10 key lessons for establishing and growing top-tier academic environments in risk, safety and security:
1) Forge external alliances (about 4:40)
2) Embrace flexibility and adapt to political realities (about 7:15)
3) Prioritize generic risk/safety competence in programs and hires (about 11.15)
4) Secure full institutional authority (including PhD level) (about 15:20)
5) Balance external projects thoughtfully (about 20:10)
6) Leverage dedicated centers for unity and coordination (about 21.45)
7) Pursue gradual evolution from specific to broad scopes (about 24:20)
8) You need one or more champions to run and sell the project (about 25:00)
9) Take risks to initiate activities ahead of full resources (about 26:00)
10) Be creative, patient, strategic, convincing and hard-working (about 30:35)
Aven also underscores the vital role of mentors in long-term success (about 31:45). This episode offers practical wisdom for academics, leaders, and institutions aiming to advance risk science excellence.
Host: Associate Professor Marja Ylönen
Episode transcription (https://podcast.uis.no/media/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science/2025_1126_1302.pdf)
17 Nov 2025
Rebutting some common ideas about risk
Professor Terje Aven is rebutting some common ideas about risk:
“Risk is same as risk perception”,
“Risk is adequately understood and characterized using quantification, probabilities and numbers”,
“Resilience needs to be addressed beyond risk – resilience needs more focus than risk” and
“Generic risk science knowledge and guidance are not so important, what matters are the practitioners’ experience and understanding of risk.”
Host: Associate Professor Marja Ylönen.
You can find a transcription here (pdf, opens in new tab). (https://podcast.uis.no/media/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science/2025_0829_1243_Master.pdf)
27 Aug 2025
“A History of Risk Science”: Conversation with the author professor Terje Aven
Host: Associate Professor Marja Ylönen
Featuring Professor Terje Aven
Join us as we discuss the author’s new book, A History of Risk Science, tracing the evolution of risk science from its origins to today. We will highlight foundational concepts and principles, offering valuable insights for academics, professionals, and students.
A History of Risk Science: Concepts and Principles of Risk Analysis – (https://www.routledge.com/A-History-of-Risk-Science-Concepts-and-Principles-of-Risk-Analysis/Aven/p/book/9781032867977?source=shoppingads&locale=en-GBP&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign_P7696357662_ECOMMC_Europe_shopping&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22138413057&gclid=Cj0KCQjwqqDFBhDhARIsAIHTlkt6cDM9qF2jW3_1asOSDvITnoa0_YnXSEWgpPzh9D8bYUKod4pyXL0aAgP_EALw_wcB)
Episode transcript. (https://podcast.uis.no/media/Fundamental_issues_in_risk_science/2025_0812_1231_Master_transcript.pdf)
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