Holden Karfnosky — Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck
Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck, by Holden Karnofsky.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/75CtdFj79sZrGpGiX/success-without-dignity-a-nearcasting-story-of-avoiding (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/75CtdFj79sZrGpGiX/success-without-dignity-a-nearcasting-story-of-avoiding)
Note: Footnotes in the original article have been omitted.
20 Mar 2023
Larks — A Windfall Clause for CEO could worsen AI race dynamics
In this post, Larks argues that the proposal to make AI firms promise to donate a large fraction of profits if they become extremely profitable will primarily benefitting the management of those firms and thereby give managers an incentive to move fast, aggravating race dynamics and in turn increasing existential risk.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ewroS7tsqhTsstJ44/a-windfall-clause-for-ceo-could-worsen-ai-race-dynamics (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ewroS7tsqhTsstJ44/a-windfall-clause-for-ceo-could-worsen-ai-race-dynamics)
20 Mar 2023
Otto Barten — Paper summary: The effectiveness of AI existential risk communication to the American and Dutch public
This is Otto Barten's summary of 'The effectiveness of AI existential risk communication to the American and Dutch public' by Alexia Georgiadis. In this paper Alexia measures changes in participants' awareness of AGI risks after consuming various media interventions.
Summary: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fqXLT7NHZGsLmjH4o/paper-summary-the-effectiveness-of-ai-existential-risk (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fqXLT7NHZGsLmjH4o/paper-summary-the-effectiveness-of-ai-existential-risk)
Original paper: https://existentialriskobservatory.org/papers_and_reports/The_Effectiveness_of_AI_Existential_Risk_Communication_to_the_American_and_Dutch_Public.pdf (https://existentialriskobservatory.org/papers_and_reports/The_Effectiveness_of_AI_Existential_Risk_Communication_to_the_American_and_Dutch_Public.pdf)
Note: Some tables in the summary have been omitted in this audio version.
20 Mar 2023
Shulman & Thornley — How much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes? Longtermism's limited role
Carl Shulman & Elliott Thornley argue that the goal of longtermists should be to get governments to adopt global catastrophic risk policies based on standard cost-benefit analysis rather than arguments that stress the overwhelming importance of the future.
https://philpapers.org/archive/SHUHMS.pdf (https://philpapers.org/archive/SHUHMS.pdf)
Note: Tables, notes and references in the original article have been omitted.
14 Mar 2023
Elika Somani — Advice on communicating in and around the biosecurity policy community
"The field of biosecurity is more complicated, sensitive and nuanced, especially in the policy space, than what impressions you might get based on publicly available information. As a result, say / write / do things with caution (especially if you are a non-technical person or more junior, or talking to a new (non-EA) expert). This might help make more headway on safer biosecurity policy."
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCuoMQj4Y5iAZpWGH/advice-on-communicating-in-and-around-the-biosecurity-policy (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCuoMQj4Y5iAZpWGH/advice-on-communicating-in-and-around-the-biosecurity-policy)
Note: Some footnotes in the original article have been omitted.
14 Mar 2023
Riley Harris — Summary of 'Are we living at the hinge of history?' by William MacAskill.
The Global Priorities Institute has published a new paper summary: 'Are we living at the hinge of history?' by William MacAskill.
https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/ (https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/)
Note: Footnotes and references in the original article have been omitted.
14 Mar 2023
Riley Harris — Summary of 'Longtermist institutional reform' by Tyler M. John and William MacAskill
The Global Priorities Institute has published a new paper summary: 'Longtermist institutional reform' by Tyler John & William MacAskill.
https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/ (https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/)
Note: Footnotes and references in the original article have been omitted.
13 Mar 2023
Hayden Wilkinson — Global priorities research: Why, how, and what have we learned?
The Global Priorities Institute has released Hayden Wilkinson's presentation on global priorities research. (The talk was given in mid-September last year but remained unlisted until now.)
https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hayden-wilkinson-global-priorities-research-why-how-and-what-have-we-learned/ (https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hayden-wilkinson-global-priorities-research-why-how-and-what-have-we-learned/)
13 Mar 2023
Piper — What should be kept off-limits in a virology lab?
New rules around gain-of-function research make progress in striking a balance between reward — and catastrophic risk.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/2/1/23580528/gain-of-function-virology-covid-monkeypox-catastrophic-risk-pandemic-lab-accident (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/2/1/23580528/gain-of-function-virology-covid-monkeypox-catastrophic-risk-pandemic-lab-accident)
13 Mar 2023
Ezra Klein — This changes everything
"One of two things must happen. Humanity needs to accelerate its adaptation to these technologies or a collective, enforceable decision must be made to slow the development of these technologies. Even doing both may not be enough."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/opinion/chatbots-artificial-intelligence-future-weirdness.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/opinion/chatbots-artificial-intelligence-future-weirdness.html)
11 Mar 2023
Victoria Krakovna — Near-term motivation for AGI alignment
Victoria Krakovna makes the point that you don't have to be a longtermist to care about AI alignment.
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