The Bulls May Be Right. They May Also Be Too Early.
A bullish story can still be a tough market to sit through. With harvest bringing fresh supplies and funds already heavily committed to higher prices, what happens if the next USDA report doesn't deliver what the bulls expect?
Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why the longer-term case for corn hasn't disappeared, but the near-term risks deserve more attention. They discuss uneven corn yields, better-than-expected soybean yields, and why a yield cut alone might not be enough to move the market higher.
Then they tackle the decisions producers face during harvest: Does storing grain actually capture the carry? When might selling grain and buying calls make more sense than paying commercial storage? And how could selling calls against stored corn fit into a marketing plan? The conversation comes back to understanding the costs, tradeoffs, and financing before choosing your next move.
Brought to you by FM Bank. Trading commodity interests involves substantial risk of loss. Opinions expressed are for discussion only and are not trading advice.
30 Sept 2026
The Opportunities Are Back. Are You Too Busy to See Them?
Harvest is underway, but grain marketing deserves more than whatever time is left at the end of the day. Strong soybean basis has Jon Prischmann questioning whether supplies are as comfortable as the numbers suggest, while a more active market is opening up strategies that were difficult to justify the past two years. Jon and Ryan Tungseth discuss what buyers' bids reveal, how to approach reowning sold bushels, and why a bullish outlook doesn't automatically make calls or bull spreads a good buy. They also look ahead to next year's crop and how time can work in a producer's favor, provided the strategy fits the risk. Recorded before the September 30 USDA report, this episode focuses on reading the market and preparing to act as opportunities develop.
15 Sept 2026
This Market Could Get Wild. Don't Get Reckless.
Energy is moving, volatility is building, and commodity markets are starting to react. That could create some of the best opportunities traders and producers have seen in a while. It could also be a very expensive time to get reckless.
Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why this is becoming a market where knowing your risk may matter more than predicting the next move. They discuss corn and wheat spreads, options and other defined-risk strategies, what higher energy costs could mean for grains, and why oil may be one of the most important markets to watch even if you never trade it.
They also dig into cattle, consumer spending, metals and the stock market as the effects of higher energy costs spread beyond grains. The opportunity is there. The question is how you participate without sticking your neck out when the market can change overnight.
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