High Variance is an interview podcast about a world that has become harder to read — more uncertain, more volatile, stranger. Host Danny Buerkli speaks with public intellectuals, entrepreneurs, and technologists to ask what is going on and how we should respond.
High Variance with Danny Buerkli
Claim This Podcastby Danny Buerkli
5.0(1 reviews)
15 episodes
Updated Daily
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Podcast Overview
High Variance is an interview podcast about a world that has become harder to read — more uncertain, more volatile, stranger. Host Danny Buerkli speaks with public intellectuals, entrepreneurs, and technologists to ask what is going on and how we should respond.
Language
🇺🇲
Publishing Since
9/11/2025
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Recent Episodes
July 22, 2026
The Craft of Foresight – with Florence Gaub
<p>Florence Gaub — political scientist, military strategist, and director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College — joins Danny Buerkli to talk about the craft of foresight: what makes for a good warning (be concrete, offer options, manage the emotion), the mix of imagination, expert knowledge, and privileged access behind her 2013 call that Egypt was counting down to a coup, and why she has commissioned an audit of her own Ukraine predictions. </p><p>They also discuss why wars are won by everything you can't touch, why the right analogy for AI in warfare is electricity rather than the bomb (according to Florence), when the first country will go ahead and unilaterally geoengineer the climate, a tour of the field's greats from Clausewitz to Herman Kahn and Edward Luttwak, and why the future is like a toothbrush: everybody needs their own.</p><p>Florence's favorite gelateria in Monti, mentioned at the very end, is <a href="https://www.gelatiflor.com/">Flor Gelato</a>.</p><p><br>Florence's books:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-future/">The Future: A User's Guide</a></li><li><a href="https://www.dtv.de/buch/szenario-28527">Szenario</a></li></ul>
July 6, 2026
Cybernetics: The Science Economics Should Have Become
<p>Dan Davies — economist, FT contributor, former investment bank analyst, and author of The Unaccountability Machine and Lying for Money — joins Danny Buerkli to make the case that management cybernetics is the science economics should have turned into. Hayek and Coase settled the economics of information in the 1930s, before Shannon and Turing gave the field a rigorous concept of information to build on. They also discuss why the optimal amount of fraud is not zero, what actually killed Credit Suisse, why LLMs only buy organizations a few years against growing complexity, who answers for decisions no human made, and how to spot a doomed project by drawing up an information balance sheet.</p><p>Dan's books: <a href="https://profilebooks.com/work/the-unaccountability-machine/">The Unaccountability Machine</a> and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Lying-for-Money/Dan-Davies/9781982114947">Lying for Money</a>. The Niskanen working paper, which is a preview of his upcoming book: <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-problem-factory-preemptive-risk-aversion-in-infrastructure-planning-and-the-role-of-professional-services/">The Problem Factory</a>.</p>
May 27, 2026
Wardley Maps: How to Cheat at Predicting the Future – with Simon Wardley
<p>Simon Wardley — former CEO and creator of Wardley Mapping — joins Danny Buerkli to talk about how he went from feeling like a "fake CEO" to finding one of the most useful ways of thinking about strategy. Simon also explains how he "cheats" at prediction, calling cloud, serverless, vibe coding, and the rise of intelligent agents years — sometimes decades — before they arrived. They also talk about why data centers are heading to space, what "SpimeScript" will do to every supply chain on Earth, why he thinks China will win the AI race, and how large language models are a non-kinetic form of warfare.</p><p>Simon's book can be found <a href="https://github.com/HiredThought/wardley-maps-ebook/raw/main/bin/Wardley%20Maps%20-%20Simon%20Wardley.pdf">here</a>. One of the most useful brief introductions to Wardley Mapping and strategy, by Dave Hora, is <a href="https://www.davesresearch.com/wardley-mapping/">here</a>. </p>
15 total episodes available
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Frequently asked questions
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- What is High Variance with Danny Buerkli?
- How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
- Where can I listen to this podcast?
This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
- Does this podcast accept guests?
Yes, this podcast regularly features guests.
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