- 64
- Episodes
- 19
- Ratings
- Daily
- Cadence
- 2020
- First episode
About Highly Volatile
Our annual FARMCON conference has connected our family with some of the real movers and shakers in agriculture. Now, through this new podcast, we’re bringing those conversations directly to you. If you’re looking to separate yourself from the crowd and hear about cutting-edge ag-technology, market insights, and hard-earned lessons you won’t find anywhere else, this podcast is for you. What makes it special is the willingness of guests to openly share not only their successes, but also their failures, ideas, and keys to growth.
- Publisher
- Kevin Van Trump
- Category
- business · business · business
- Language
- en
- Explicit
- Yes
- First episode
- 16 Mar 2020
- Latest episode
- 6 Oct 2026
Latest episodes
64 episodes in the feed.
6 Oct 2026
FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — with Special Guest Jake Espenmiller of Conterra Ag Capital
Today on FARMCON Conversations, Kevin and I are joined by FARMCON partner Jake Espenmiller, President and CEO of Conterra Ag Capital. Jake sits in a unique seat where he can see what is happening across farm balance sheets, operating credit and institutional capital, and our conversation quickly moved to what happens when an operation can look extremely wealthy on paper but starts losing liquidity and financial optionality underneath. We also get into whether farmland has peaked, why some big buyers are backing away, what the strongest operators are doing differently, and how higher interest rates are changing the competition for every investment dollar. JAKE ESPENMILLER | CONTERRA AG CAPITAL 52:20 — Has farmland finally peaked? – Jake largely agrees with Kevin that farmland may have reached a point where continued appreciation becomes harder. He isn’t calling for a collapse, but low cash returns and a changing buyer pool are starting to alter the math. 55:20 — 70% equity and still running out of options – Jake shares examples of operators with 60%–70% equity on the balance sheet but almost no cash reserves and difficulty securing affordable operating credit. His bigger point: once liquidity disappears, so does your ability to solve the next problem. 1:01:15 — Be careful when the financial lifeline shows up – Kevin warns from personal experience that the capital available when you are desperate can sometimes become the final nail in the coffin. Jake says one of Conterra’s first questions in alternative credit is whether both parties understand exactly how the deal will eventually unwind. 1:04:15 — Agricultural capital has more competition – Jake explains why a Treasury yielding above 5% forces farmland and agricultural loans to compete much harder for investor dollars. Capital providers now have easier, more liquid alternatives available to them. 1:06:20 — What are the strongest operators doing differently? – Looking across Conterra’s portfolio, Jake sees stronger operators creating additional profit centers and optionality through livestock, grain storage, greater control over inputs and other forms of diversification. 1:15:30 — You can afford the neighboring farm. But should you buy it? – Jake says the better question may be what sacrifices you are willing to make if the investment doesn’t perform as expected. Kevin adds one of his favorite rules: never risk what you have and need for something you don’t have and don’t need. 1:25:00 — Kevin on the mistake he made with bankers before going broke – Kevin looks back at his housing-development years and admits he treated his banker almost like an opponent, trying to hide problems in order to keep borrowing. His advice now is exactly the opposite: get the lender behind the curtain early enough that there are still options available. KEVIN + TODD 2:15 — A handful of relationships can change your entire financial trajectory – Kevin shares a conversation with Jordan about how only four or five relationships may have materially changed the Van Trump family’s business and financial path—and why those relationships usually begin by putting yourself in the right rooms. 7:30 — When does cutting expenses start cutting off opportunity? – A startup deciding to conserve cash sparks a broader conversation about when cutting marketing, networking and customer access may actually accelerate the very problem a young business is trying to solve. 33:00 — Kevin starts putting cash back to work – After carrying roughly 40% cash, Kevin says he has started moving money back into equities, focusing heavily on large companies with strong balance sheets, free cash flow and the ability to fund the next stage of the AI buildout. 37:20 — Kevin is more negative on farmland than he has been in 20 years – After spending most of the past two decades bullish farmland, Kevin believes the growth in the buyer pool may finally be slowing. He isn’t predicting a crash, but questions whether the appreciation of the past can continue when capital has so many more places to go. 44:30 — Kevin on an investment thesis that stopped working – Kevin talks about high-end Kansas City condos and live/work properties that looked like great investments at one price but became much harder to sell as prices climbed and buyers suddenly had more alternatives. QUICK MARKET CHECK 17:00 — Corn – Kevin remains slightly bullish longer term but believes harvest pressure and uncertainty around production could offer a better entry before demand becomes the next meaningful catalyst. 23:00 — Soybeans – Kevin remains a longer-term bull but has stepped to the sidelines after getting whipsawed. Domestic crush remains supportive, while the market still needs fresh demand headlines to keep the bull story moving. 28:45 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still hasn’t translated into the U.S. export demand bulls expected. Kevin believes wheat probably needs either a meaningful global weather problem or a major new buyer before the setup materially changes.
29 Sept 2026
FARMCON CONVERSATIONS: THE EDGE IS CHANGING
This week’s conversation centered on how the edge is changing. Kevin talks about why information alone matters less in an AI-driven world, where he believes advantage comes from now, how higher rates are changing capital allocation, and the frameworks he uses to evaluate businesses, investments and opportunities. 1:15 — What FARMCON is really trying to build – Kevin explains why FARMCON is increasingly focused on helping producers become better business owners, capital allocators and leaders. 3:20 — AI made information cheap. So where does the edge come from now? – Kevin believes information itself is becoming less of an advantage. The next edge comes from networks, experience, wisdom and knowing how to separate noise from what actually matters. 19:00 — Kevin on patience – After taking soybean puts off one day too early, Kevin talks about how patience has changed throughout his trading career and whether he is actually becoming less patient as he gets older. 22:30 — When does doing more become doing too much? – Kevin questions when successful people should stop constantly adding businesses, investments and projects and begin protecting more of what they have already built. 27:45 — When is enough enough? – Kevin discusses the challenge of knowing when to stop chasing the next opportunity and redirect more energy toward family, community and helping others. 39:30 — Diesel: the next break may be the opportunity – Energy traders Kevin trusts believe diesel could experience a meaningful pullback before potentially moving sharply higher again into winter and spring. 42:30 — Don’t try to pick the bottom – Kevin explains why he would consider gradually locking in fuel on a major pullback rather than trying to perfectly time the low. 46:00 — Are the economic measurements getting old? – Kevin questions whether traditional economic data adequately captures how dramatically spending patterns have changed across generations. 54:30 — The $100,000 General Lee vs. a Treasury bond – Kevin compares buying a collectible Dodge Charger with putting the same money into a relatively low-risk investment and explains why higher interest rates change the hurdle rate for every other investment. 56:30 — Everybody is competing for the same investment dollar – Stocks, real estate, collectibles, crypto, private investments and other assets now have to compete with increasingly attractive returns available in safer investments. 1:00:00 — Has investing become another form of gambling? – Kevin talks about sports betting, day trading, collectibles and leveraged investing and his concern that delayed gratification is disappearing. 1:03:30 — Why ag-tech capital has changed dramatically – Investors have been burned, capital is no longer free and ag-tech companies now have to clear a much higher bar to attract investment. 1:06:00 — Kevin would rather back a bootstrapper – Kevin explains why he increasingly favors founders who use their own money, work directly with customers and prove the business before aggressively raising outside capital. 1:08:30 — Solve a real problem – Kevin argues that companies should solve problems producers already have rather than inventing problems simply because they have a technology or product to sell. 1:10:30 — The first thing every business needs isn’t money – Kevin says the first thing a business needs is customers. Before more capital or employees, prove that real people want the product and will pay for it. 1:12:30 — The Ted Williams approach to investing – Kevin explains why he now waits for investment opportunities that fit his experience, temperament and strengths instead of swinging at every good story. 1:17:00 — Kevin’s quick business matrix – Kevin explains how he quickly evaluates whether a business is commoditized or unique, its pricing power, customer acquisition costs, target customer and ability to retain business. 1:20:30 — You cannot learn greatness by reading about it – Kevin says young entrepreneurs need to move fast, make mistakes, learn from them and get back after it. Experience comes from doing. QUICK MARKET CHECK 8:00 — Corn – Kevin sees relatively little remaining production surprise and believes demand now has to provide the next meaningful catalyst. 15:30 — Soybeans – China did not provide the additional demand catalyst bulls were hoping for, and Kevin remains interested in owning beans on a deeper pullback. 32:30 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still has not translated into the U.S. export demand many expected, making major rallies opportunities to consider extending producer pricing farther out.
22 Sept 2026
FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE with Special Guest KEN PACKARD of StoneX
“It’s not bringing in the new ideas that’s so hard. It’s getting rid of the old ones.” — John Maynard Keynes Today on FARMCON Conversations, we’re joined by longtime friend and FARMCON partner Ken Packard of StoneX.Ken has spent more than 30 years in commodity futures and agricultural risk management, and our conversation quickly moved to how producers manage the entire business — revenue, inputs, interest rates, information, decision-making and the risks they may not even realize they’re carrying. 45:00 — Ken Packard joins FARMCON Conversations Kevin and Ken go back nearly 30 years to their early days in the commodity business. Ken now serves as Regional Director of Commodity Futures Client Management at StoneX. 47:00 — StoneX is much more than grain hedging Ken explains how StoneX has evolved into a global financial-services company connecting clients to commodity and financial markets, execution, clearing, technology, research and physical trading. 49:30 — What are producers asking about right now? Prices have improved, but Ken says the real question isn’t simply whether to sell corn or beans. It’s understanding the entire hand of cards an operation is holding — old crop, new crop, storage, breakevens, sales and input exposure — before making the next decision. 52:30 — Producers can now hedge fertilizer The CME recently introduced a smaller 10-ton urea futures contract, creating a tool scaled more appropriately for individual producers rather than large retailers. 58:00 — The generational change happening on farms Ken is seeing fathers increasingly encourage the next generation to develop marketing and risk-management skills they themselves may not have had time to build. His point isn’t that the old generation did it wrong. It’s that the markets are changing — and the next generation needs a larger toolbox. 1:01:00 — “I’m too busy” may be one of the biggest business risks One of the strongest parts of our conversation. Ken says some of the most successful operators deliberately make time to get their heads out of the daily grind, have conversations, test ideas and make decisions. Being busy running the farm can easily prevent you from actually building the business. 1:04:00 — Kevin: There are really only two ways to grow Either reinvest the cash your business generates back into your own business, or take that capital and invest it into someone else’s business that can compound it better. That’s the growth mindset Kevin believes separates operators who simply stay busy from those who deliberately build wealth. KEVIN & TODD — COMMODITIES, DIESEL & CAPITAL 6:00 — Corn may need demand to do the heavy lifting Kevin believes the production story is becoming increasingly known.The question now is whether demand — particularly exports — can become strong enough to attract the next round of buyers necessary to push corn materially higher. 9:30 — Why bullish headlines aren’t always enough At $5.50 corn, a new speculative buyer needs to believe the upside materially outweighs the downside. Kevin explains why commodity markets can sometimes receive bullish news and still fail to rally: the market simply doesn’t attract enough new money. 11:00 — Commodities and stocks don’t trade the same way A useful market lesson from Kevin: Stocks can continually attract investors who accumulate and hold. In commodities, every buyer still needs a seller. As prices rise, increasingly powerful reasons are required to attract the next buyer. 17:00 — Soybeans still have a demand story China continues buying U.S. soybeans, although much of the purchasing is still coming through state entities rather than commercial crushers. Kevin believes beans remain fundamentally different from wheat because soybeans still have a longer-term demand story underneath them. 21:00 — Wheat has bullish headlines. What it doesn’t yet have is demand confirmation. Black Sea infrastructure disruptions continue creating risk, but U.S. export demand hasn’t responded strongly enough.Kevin’s distinction is important: Right now wheat is a dislocation story — not yet a demand story. 26:00 — Could diesel create unexpected basis opportunities? If trucks become more expensive to operate — or simply stop running — grain may not move as easily from the farm to the end user. Kevin and I discuss why producers should pay especially close attention to local basis, because transportation disruptions could create very different opportunities from one region to another. 30:00 — Why freight inflation hits agriculture differently It’s easy to spread another $1,000 of freight across a truckload of expensive electronics. It’s much harder to spread it across lettuce, watermelon, grain or other relatively low-value bulk commodities. That distinction matters throughout the agricultural supply chain. 35:00 — The Fed and the 10-speed bicycle Kevin compares the Fed to someone controlling the gears on a bicycle. Make it too difficult for the consumer to keep pedaling and eventually they hit the brakes. And when the consumer goes over the handlebars, that’s when much larger economic problems begin. 36:00 — AI spending may be much harder to slow than policymakers think Higher rates may pressure normal businesses and consumers. But Kevin doesn’t believe a quarter-point — or even substantially more — necessarily stops the largest technology companies from continuing the AI infrastructure race. There is too much capital and too much strategic importance already committed. 38:00 — Why Kevin is carrying more cash With global rates rising, energy expensive and the Fed tightening, Kevin says he’s becoming increasingly cautious. He’s reduced exposure and is holding roughly 40% cash, while concentrating remaining investments in businesses he’d be comfortable owning through a difficult market environment.
Reach and audience
Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.
- Apple Podcasts (US)
- 5.0 / 5
- 15 ratings
- Spotify
- 5.0 / 5
- 4 ratings
Podcast Authority Score: 25 / 100
A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.
- Quality
- 31
- Social presence
- 0
- YouTube
- 0
- Engagement
- 51
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