14 Sept 2026
The Market Is Weakening. Why I’m Warning You Before the Fed
The S&P 500 still looks relatively stable on the surface. But underneath, market participation has deteriorated sharply: on Thursday, roughly 7 in 10 S&P 500 stocks were trading below their 50-day moving average.And that weakness is appearing just before a particularly important week for markets: the Federal Reserve, U.S. retail sales, the Bank of Japan, major options expiration, rising long-term bond yields, and several geopolitical risks still in the background.In this video, I explain why I’m choosing to discuss these warning signs before we get perfect confirmation, rather than waiting until the market has already moved.We look at:• The sharp deterioration in S&P 500 market breadth • Weakness in the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) • Fading Nasdaq momentum • U.S. 10-year and 30-year yields moving higher • Why the VIX is still relatively calm • Oracle’s negative reversal despite initially positive earnings headlines • CPI, PPI and why the Fed’s official inflation target is based on PCE • A market pricing a very high probability of a Fed hike, while my own view remains much closer to 55% hold / 45% hike • The Fed, Bank of Japan and major options expiration coming in the same week • The October 29, 2025 pivot and why a market turning point does not necessarily mean an immediate crash • The signals I’ll be watching to determine whether conditions improve or deteriorate furtherI’m not predicting a crash.The point is to think about risk while we still have time to do it calmly, rather than after the market has already made the decision for us.📩 The Market NotebookI publish a weekly market briefing with the charts, risks and developments I’m watching between videos.Free version + more in-depth paid edition.► https://nicodebonyen.substack.com/📊 OPTI StrategiesEducational programs and resources focused on investing and risk management:► https://www.optistrategies.com🎥 Related videosThe October 29, 2025 market-pivot video: ► https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkNfCX0BjhANvidia: practical ways to protect a stock position without simply selling ► https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD4VMPuMuC0 (video in auto-dubbed English, subtitles also available in English)📅 Recorded September 12, 2026. Market data shown is through the close of Friday, September 11, 2026.CHAPTERS00:00 Why I’m warning you before the Fed01:34 S&P 500: weakness beneath the surface02:53 Equal-weight S&P: another warning sign04:02 Nasdaq momentum is fading04:30 Bond yields add another pressure point05:37 VIX: the market still looks calm06:55 Oracle: good headlines weren’t enough08:07 CPI: what the inflation data really showed10:11 PPI: energy is driving much of the pressure11:02 PCE: the inflation measure the Fed actually targets11:37 Fed: is the market overpricing a rate hike?12:44 A critical week: Fed, BoJ and options expiration14:18 A pivot doesn’t have to look like a crash14:44 October 29, 2025: the previous warning17:01 The signals I’m watching now19:08 The Market Notebook19:22 Preparing for risk, not predicting the future20:14 A practical Nvidia protection example***********DisclaimerThe information presented is provided for informational purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an inducement to buy, sell, or hold financial assets. The opinions expressed are general in nature and do not take into account the financial situation, objectives, or specific needs of any individual. Before making investment decisions, it is recommended to consult a financial advisor accredited by the financial market’s authority for personalized advice. Investing involves risks, including the risk of capital loss.Full disclaimer: https://www.optistrategies.com/disclaimer
