两个在互联网从业十余年，经历过几轮周期，喜欢看《凡人修仙传》，立志成为杨浦巴菲特的业余投资人。
Podcast Overview
两个在互联网从业十余年，经历过几轮周期，喜欢看《凡人修仙传》，立志成为杨浦巴菲特的业余投资人。
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8/4/2024
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Recent Episodes
May 20, 2026
E26.失踪人口回归，还是少年！
<p>本次播客复盘了AI行情下的市场分化，讨论了港股流动性困境与美股趋势策略的博弈，并对未来软件应用层的机会进行了前瞻性探讨。</p><p>一、市场复盘与持仓表现</p><p>针对过去半年的市场分化行情，两位嘉宾复盘了各自的持仓表现及操作逻辑：</p><p>1. Peter的持仓复盘</p><p>持仓结构：主要持有京东、美团、腾讯、泡泡玛特等老牌资产，同时配置了恒玄科技（可穿戴）、软银、高通、微软、亚马逊及台积电等AI相关标的，A股压仓底为紫金矿业和招商银行。</p><p>操作反思：虽然在电力股（如东方电气）上获得翻倍收益并已获利了结，但整体收益勉强为正。主要反思在于“买得不够多”，且在AI行情中过早卖出了芯片、科创等趋势性资产，反而补仓了下跌中的腾讯、美团等，导致未能充分享受牛市红利。</p><p>2. Kevin 的持仓复盘</p><p>冰火两重天：Kevin 的账户呈现出极致的撕裂感，港股持仓（如美团、心动、理想）持续亏损，而美股持仓（如光模块、存储）表现强劲。</p><p>趋势策略执行：承认对美股AI产业链（光、存、CPU）缺乏深度研究，但坚持“趋势派”打法，半仓配置在趋势上，只要图形未走坏即持有，避免了过早下车。</p><p>二、Tim：港股困境与流动性分析</p><p>Tim 深入探讨了港股持续下跌的底层逻辑及应对策略：</p><p>1. 流动性枯竭与宏观因素</p><p>流动性双杀：港股处于中美流动性夹缝中，外部美元流动性收紧，内部虽宽松但无法外溢，导致港股成为流动性洼地，资金持续流出。</p><p>宏观吸水效应：未来OpenAI、Sora等巨头上市将形成巨大的资金虹吸效应，进一步抽走港股的流动性。</p><p>2. 中概股的估值重构</p><p>消费属性压制：中概股底层逻辑仍是消费股，受国内社零数据及消费驱动影响，EPS增长乏力，难以与AI资产的成长性抗衡。</p><p>老登化趋势：中概股面临被AI迭代的风险，若无法转型，可能沦为类似商业地产的“老登”资产，虽有一定分红回购支撑，但成长性缺失。</p><p>三、投资策略与未来展望</p><p>面对极致的市场分化，嘉宾们提出了各自的应对方案及对未来的预判：</p><p>1. Peter的防守策略</p><p>现金为王：鉴于市场不确定性增加，计划将现金仓位提升至20%左右，以应对潜在的剧烈波动。</p><p>止盈止损机制：设定严格的交易纪律，任何股票从高点回撤20%即触发卖出信号，旨在保住胜利果实。</p><p>2. Kevin 的攻守道</p><p>知行合一：Kevin 提出“两个Kevin”理论，即白天做港股价值投资（长久期），晚上做美股趋势投资（墙头草）。他接受这种风格分裂，认为这是在不同市场环境下的最优解。</p><p>警惕韩国散户效应：对韩国散户全民炒股的现象表示警惕，认为这种全民狂欢往往是行情末期的信号，并预测韩国散户难以带走这波利润。</p><p>3. 软件与应用层的机会</p><p>软件的巨大潜力：Kevin 提出暴论，认为软件（应用层）将迎来巨大机会。以微信读书推出的 Skill 功能为例，预示着未来“硅基读、硅基喂给碳基”的生产关系变革。</p><p>新交互与新入口：Peter 认为当前硬件的上涨只是前奏，真正的伟大时代在于新的交互方式、生产关系和入口，应用层将捕获最大价值。</p><figure><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/Fpvx_IqdqqV4ULONfr3gQafBmrqr.png"></figure><p></p>
November 30, 2025
E25.眼里有光，拥抱新周期
<p>冯柳说要关注「新」，新方向、新价格、新幅度、新速率、新节奏、新成交量。</p><p>Peter，Tim，Kevin时隔两个月，主要的关注点不约而同聚焦到了「新」。</p><p>当世界发出了「新」信号，你能识别和捕捉吗？</p>
November 17, 2025
加更：胡猛北大演讲（转载）
<p>最近Peter和Kevin比较忙，一直没凑上时间录播客。</p><p>市场刚好又在震荡调整，多看少动，保持定力。</p><p>怕大家等得焦急，加更一期胡猛的北大演讲，讲清楚了投机和投资的区别：</p><p>https://web.plaud.ai/share/88541763264393299</p><p>胡猛介绍：</p><p>胡猛是风和投资的创始合伙人兼首席投资官，一位拥有超过20年经验的市场老将。他的过人之处并非在于追逐市场热点，而是建立了一套极为严谨且系统化的投资方法论，这使他能够在充满不确定性的市场中持续获得稳定回报</p><p><br></p><h3>核心理念：追求确定性</h3><p>胡猛的投资哲学可以概括为“确定性优先”。他认为，投资成功的关键不在于预测市场波动，而在于识别并投资于那些能持续创造价值的企业</p><p><br></p><p>独创的分析框架</p><p>他将这一理念落地为一套名为“3C3D5M3T”的实用分析工具</p><ul> <li>3C：关注周期、变化和确定性。</li> <li>5M：分析目标市场、市场份额、利润率、商业模式和管理团队。<br>这套工具体系化地覆盖了从宏观到微观、从短期到长期的全方位分析，确保投资决策有章可循。<br></li></ul>
27 total episodes available
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