In our March 6th ISA Quick Take, “Real estate implications of conflict in the Middle East” (https://www.lasalle.com/research-and-insights/isa-quick-take-real-estate-implications-of-conflict-in-the-middle-east/), we argued that the impact of the war in the Middle East would depend on its duration, and in particular, how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. We foresaw “a wide cone of potential outcomes” as analysts predicted timelines for the end of fighting ranging from a week to several months.1
Looking back at almost four weeks of hostilities, events have so far unfolded in the downside portion of that cone.
A conversation between David White (https://www.lasalle.com/people/david-white/), Craig Oram (https://www.lasalle.com/people/craig-oram/) and Dominic Silman (https://www.lasalle.com/people/dominic-j-silman/)
Read more at: https://www.lasalle.com/research-and-insights/isa-quick-take-the-iran-war-four-weeks-on/
3 Jun 2025
ISA Briefing: The emergence of land-driven logistics real estate
This episode explores the rise of Industrial Outdoor Storage (IOS) logistics real estate, explaining its key aspects and potential benefits for investors.
16 Apr 2025
ISA Briefing: Working backwards: Dealing with unprecedented policy uncertainty
A reader waking up from a quarter-long slumber on April 1, 2025 would be forgiven for confusing the headlines for an April Fools’ Day prank. They would scan the news and see stories about:
• large tariffs alternately announced, rescinded, delayed and reintroduced at a breakneck pace (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly (https://www.lasalle.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/LaSalle-Macro-Quarterly-Q12025.pdf), or LMQ, p. 4);
• US equities in correction territory as ex-US markets, including even China’s, outperform (LMQ p. 25);
• increasing calls that the risk of a US recession is rising (LMQ p. 20); and
• substantial upward revisions in forecasts of long-term European GDP growth (LMQ p. 21).
Each of these is at least partly (and in some cases completely) contrary to expectations from the beginning of this year. But the quick reversal in the economic narrative is no April 1st joke. The post-election consensus of a supercharged US economy pulling ahead of the rest of the world has clearly been challenged, if not upended.
In this period of elevated policy uncertainty, real estate investors should focus on what they can and should do amidst all the noise. At the risk of stating the obvious, we think it helps to take a step back and break down the analysis into three basic steps of incorporating news flow into investment strategy — the what, the so what, and action steps. But as we will discuss, the first two are characterized by so much uncertainty that it is also helpful to start from the end and work backwards, asking: What can investors do to improve their chances of successfully navigating this environment regardless of what happens?
Contributors:
Brian Klinksiek
Global Head of Research and Strategy
Petra Blazkova
Managing Director, Research and Strategy
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