This report covers developments in May and June 2026. The dominant theme was the announcement of an initial US-Iran peace agreement, which triggered a sharp rally in global equities and a significant decline in oil prices. Despite improving market sentiment, uncertainty remains over the durability of the ceasefire and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. In the US, the economy remained resilient, with 172,000 jobs added in May and unemployment holding at 4.3%. Inflation rose to 4.2%, drive...
20 May 2026
Update for May 2026
In this episode, we unpack the major market and macroeconomic developments shaping global investment risk during April and May 2026. The discussion centres on a market environment defined by resilient US equities, persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy prices, and rising geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. US equity markets continued to show remarkable strength, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high before pulling back slightly. Much of the...
22 Apr 2026
Update for April 2026
This report reviews developments in March and April 2026. In the US, job growth rebounded strongly to 178,000, while unemployment fell to 4.3%, though driven by a shrinking labor force. Inflation surged to 3.3%, mainly due to a sharp spike in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, while core inflation remained contained. The Fed remains cautious, with low expectations for near-term rate cuts. In Europe, inflation rose to 2.6%, with energy contributing significantly. The ECB signaled risin...
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