In an industry plagued by complexity and lack of trust, sports bettors are underserved. Traditional sportsbooks impose limitations, and reliable resources for information and analysis are scarce.
Welcome to "Linecraft" - a new podcast and content series hosted by Jacob Fortinsky. Each episode surveys the landscape of the sports betting industry, from both sides of the counter.
"Linecraft" shares perspectives from market makers, industry experts, and professional bettors. With an array of expert guests, "Linecraft" is your source for innovative conversation on the future of sports betting.
Wall Street Veteran's Big Bet on Small Gaming Companies: Joel Simkins
Joel Simkins (https://www.linkedin.com/in/joel-simkins/) has 25 years on Wall Street under his belt, from crunching numbers as an equity research analyst to working with big banks like Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Now he's launched his own company, believing there is a gap in the market.
XST Capital Group (https://www.linkedin.com/company/xst-capital-group-llc/) is a boutique investment bank in the digital gaming space, helping smaller companies navigate the choppy waters of fundraising and M&A.
In this episode, Joel shares his takes on the state of the sports betting industry. He speaks to how betting has become mainstream and why he thinks it's here to stay. He also breaks down the rise of new players in the industry, the growing interest in sports you might not expect, and how this isn't just happening in the U.S.
5 Sept 2024
How Sharp Players are Forcing the Industry’s Hand, with Matt Buchalter (@plusEVAnalytics on X)
Matt Buchalter (known as @plusEVanalytics on Twitter) is the real deal. With a degree in Actuarial Science and Statistics, Matt's not just a guy on a heater - he's a number-crunching machine. He's dabbled in everything from poker (where he once ranked #1 worldwide in $100 single-table tournaments) to horse racing syndicates. Now, he's deep in the world of sports modeling and analytics, always on the hunt for that sweet, sweet edge.
In this episode, Matt explores the calculated gamble that is modern sports gameplay through the lens of a seasoned quant. He speaks to how data-driven approaches are reshaping the industry, from sophisticated modeling techniques to the challenges of market efficiency. Through Matt's experiences, a clear picture emerges of an industry in flux, grappling with the implications of ever-sharper players and evolving market structures.
This conversation lands at the intersection of analytics, game theory, and good old-fashioned sports knowledge, all set against the backdrop of a booming industry that may be approaching a fork in the road.
7 Aug 2024
Why is there so much hype around prediction markets? With Kelechi Ukah, Co-Founder and CTO of Novig
As the co-founder and CTO of Novig, Kelechi Ukah has been on the front lines of revolutionizing how players engage with sports markets. His unique perspective, shaped by his background in both technology and trading, has made him a trusted and sought-after voice in this industry.
In this episode, Kelechi and Jacob go into a wide-ranging conversation that explores the intricacies of prediction markets, betting markets, and financial markets.
Kelechi's insights painted a vivid picture of the complex interplay between information, incentives, and human behavior that drives these markets, offering valuable lessons for players, traders, and curious observers alike.
Key topics include:
- Markets as Information Discovery Mechanisms (01:41)
- The Bounded Nature of Prediction and Betting Markets (02:38)
- Key Assumptions Underlying Prediction Market Efficacy (13:12)
- The Importance of Outcome Independence (15:05)
31 Jul 2024
Tackling Your FAQs on Novig's Model
This week we did something a little different. Instead of hosting a guest, I flew solo to answer some of the most common questions that have landed in my DMs and inbox over the past few weeks.
Since launching Novig and starting Linecraft, I've had the opportunity to connect with operators, players, entrepreneurs, and investors from all corners of the sports prediction world. What never ceases to amaze me is the diversity of perspectives and challenges that exist in this space. Every conversation sparks new ideas and surfaces unique puzzles to solve.
In this episode, I'm peeling back the curtain and sharing my thoughts on everything from the shifts transforming the industry to the nitty-gritty details of how Novig is carving out our unique position in the market. I'm hopeful this format will provide valuable insights and a glimpse into the vision driving us forward.
26 Jun 2024
PFF’s Judah Fortgang Shares His Essential Tips to Gain an Edge in Sports Betting Markets
This episode of Linecraft features Judah Fortgang, an expert in sports analytics and a professional bettor. With a background in political philosophy and a passion for sports, Judah has carved out a unique niche in the world of sports betting. He currently works in R&D and betting at Pro Football Focus (PFF), where he leverages his analytical skills and deep understanding of football to identify edges in the betting markets.
Throughout the conversation, Judah shared his approach to gaining an edge in sports betting by challenging conventional wisdom and looking beyond surface-level trends. By combining rigorous analysis with a willingness to question established norms, Judah has developed a winning strategy that can help bettors at all stages step up their game and get more wins.
Here's a glimpse of what we covered:
- [05:00] The transition from political philosophy to sports analytics
- [11:36] Weighing the impact of different positions and player grades
- [16:15] Handicapping strategy and building models from first principles
- [27:03] Mastering the art of the same game parlay
- [32:14] Market taking vs market making: Pros, cons, and the future of exchanges
- [39:47] Reflecting on trends and the evolution of football analytics
- [44:12] Advice for aspiring analysts: Focus on questions over model complexity
- [50:55] Bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season
19 Jun 2024
Isaac Rose-Berman's Vision for a More Transparent & Fair Sports Betting Industry
In the world of sports betting, it's not often that you come across someone like Isaac Rose-Berman (https://howgamblingworks.substack.com/). As a professional bettor and writer, Isaac has not only navigated the complex landscape of the gambling industry but also emerged as a vocal advocate for transparency and fairness. His insights, shaped by years of experience and a deep understanding of the industry's inner workings, offer a refreshing perspective on what it takes to create a more equitable and sustainable betting ecosystem.
When I sat down with Isaac, our conversation quickly gravitated towards the most pressing issues facing the sports betting world today. From the critical importance of price awareness and transparent advertising to the urgent need for accessible betting data and government-funded research on problem gambling, Isaac's insights painted a vivid picture of an industry at a crossroads. But beyond the nuts and bolts of betting strategy and regulation, what struck me most was Isaac's deeply personal reflection on the surprising mental benefits that can come from embracing the ups and downs of variance - a lesson that resonates far beyond the world of gambling.
Whether you've been betting all your life, an aspiring entrepreneur, or simply someone who appreciates fresh perspectives on complex issues, I promise you'll come away from this episode with a newfound appreciation for the power of transparency and the importance of taking a long-term view in all of life's pursuits.
12 Jun 2024
Inside the Mind of a Professional Gambler: Bill Krackomberger’s Secrets to Winning in Sports Betting
This week Linecraft hosted the legendary sports bettor Bill Krackomberger (https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-krackomberger-7044b51b5/). Growing up on the East Coast, Bill was immersed in the world of gambling from a young age. With betting a significant part of the culture in cities like Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Chicago, and both his parents involved in gambling, Bill cut his teeth on football parlay cards. His first taste of advantage gambling came from his cousin who had attended a card counting school and shared his secrets for beating the house in blackjack. Bill honed his skills in the late 80s and early 90s, playing poker professionally before it became mainstream, and really hit his stride when he partnered with Frank, a skilled blackjack advantage player. Together, they spent the next decade beating the books, with Bill taking their sports betting operation to new heights.
Bill shared a wealth of experience from his decades in the sports betting trenches. From the foundational importance of bankroll management and emotional control to the never-ending quest to find and exploit edges in an increasingly efficient market, Bill's insights highlights the skills, discipline, and relentless drive for improvement that show what it takes to do this professionally. In this episode, we'll unpack some of his key lessons in detail, going beyond the soundbites to explore the daily realities of professional gambling. Whether you're a seasoned sharp or a casual fan looking to learn more, Bill takes you into the mindset and methods needed to tackle the challenge of beating the books consistently.
5 Jun 2024
Balancing Innovation and Regulation — Thoughts from Eric Frank, President of IC360, on the Evolving Sports Betting Landscape
This week, Linecraft welcomed Eric Frank (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericdfrank/), President at IC360 (https://ic360.io/) and a leading expert in the world of compliance. He's currently a Special Advisor on U.S. Regulatory Affairs at Genius Sports and sits on the advisory board at BettorFantasy, but that's not all. Eric was the CEO & Founder of Odds on Compliance before IC360 was formed upon a merger with US Integrity earlier this year. Before that, he served as the Vice President of Legal Affairs & Group Compliance Officer for The Stars Group. With a resume like that, it's safe to say Eric is one of the world’s sharpest minds when it comes to navigating complex gaming regulations.
Throughout this conversation, Eric and Jacob dig into the constant push and pull between innovation and regulation and how companies are getting creative to stay ahead. Eric didn't hold back, giving the inside scoop on how IC360 is shaking things up with their new partnership and the emerging trends that are keeping regulators on their toes. But through it all, one thing was clear - finding the right balance between protecting consumers and leaving room for growth is no easy task. If you're looking to stay ahead of the curve in the sports betting game, this is one episode you won't want to miss.
29 May 2024
CEO of OddsJam, Matt Restivo's Mission to Empower Players & Grow the Sportsbetting Industry
This week Linecraft welcomed Matt Restivo, CEO of OddsJam. Matt has a wealth of experience in the sports betting industry. He previously served as the Chief Product Officer at Action Network before taking the reins at OddsJam. This conversation with Matt was packed with insights and advice for operators and bettors. His experience building multiple successful sports betting products combined with his in-the-trenches perspective as an active bettor makes him a must-listen.
In this episode, Matt dove into the key trends and opportunities shaping the sports betting landscape. Matt's holistic view of the industry is noteworthy - from the nuts and bolts of building great products to the evolving regulatory environment to the mindset needed to succeed as a bettor. Matt has the ability to zoom in on the details that matter while never losing sight of the big picture.
A key theme throughout the conversation was the importance of education and empowerment. Matt and the OddsJam team are on a mission to change how bettors approach the market, arming them with the tools and knowledge to bet profitably. In a business where most operators are focused solely on acquisition and handle, it's refreshing to see a company so committed to the long-term success of its users.
Whether you're a seasoned industry vet, a casual bettor looking to up your game, or just someone fascinated by the business of sports betting, you'll find a ton of valuable insights in this conversation.
22 May 2024
From Betting Tips to Industry Red Tape — Insights from Novig’s Head of Trading, Henry Kerins
This episode of Linecraft features Henry Kerins (https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-kerins-96583a228/), the Head of Trading here at Novig (https://www.novig.us/). With a treasure trove of experience as a bettor and his background in tech from his Bloomberg days, he came with plenty to share on the state of the sports betting world and even some tips on being a better bettor.
As someone who has sat on both sides of the table, Henry brings a unique perspective to the conversation. He not only knows all the ins and outs of what it takes to be a sharp bettor but also has a front-row seat to how sportsbooks operate on a day-to-day basis. That combo of experiences allows him to speak confidently on exploiting inefficiencies in the market and why books must be so careful about managing their risk.
In this conversation, Henry and Jacob dive into the cat-and-mouse game between bettors and bookmakers, explore how the market evolves in real-time as information hits the wire, and how the most successful players stay a step ahead. For anyone out there trying to turn a profit as a bettor, this is a masterclass in the kind of thinking and strategies you need to employ.
15 May 2024
How Automation is Transforming Sports Betting | A Conversation with Novig CTO & Co-Founder Kelechi Ukah
The world of sports betting is undergoing a transformation. Just as the rise of algorithmic trading and quantitative analysis has reshaped the stock market, the advent of automation and data-driven decision-making is changing the game for sports bettors and bookmakers alike. As the industry evolves at a crazy pace, it's crucial for bettors of all stripes—from seasoned sharps to casual dabblers—to understand how these powerful new tools are shaping the competitive landscape.
In this article, we'll take a deep dive into the current state of affairs in sports betting markets, examine the key drivers behind the rise of automation, and explore the implications for bettors and operators as the industry hurtles towards an increasingly algorithm-driven future. Along the way, we'll draw on insights from my friend and Co-Founder, Kelechi Ukah (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelechi-ukah-692016164/), CTO of Novig (https://www.novig.us/), to paint you a picture of where the world of sports betting is headed - and what it means for anyone looking to stay ahead of the curve.
So whether you're a tech-savvy bettor looking to sharpen your edge, an industry professional trying to make sense of the changing tides, or simply a curious observer of the space, read on. The future of sports betting is unfolding before our eyes, and it belongs to the innovators, the data hounds, and the relentless seekers of an edge.
30 Apr 2024
Breaking Down the Past, Present, and Future of Sports Betting, with PointsBet COO Jake Williams
Welcome to "Linecraft"by Novig - a new podcast and content series that breaks the mold of conventional sports betting content. Hosted by Jacob Fortinsky, the visionary CEO and Co-Founder of Novig, each episode is a masterclass in betting strategy and industry disruption.
In Episode 01, Jacob Fortinsky sat down with Jake Williams to discuss the evolution and current state of the sports betting industry in the U.S. Jake shares his unique perspective having worked in both the Australian and U.S. markets on the B2B and B2C sides of the business.
Key topics covered:
— The different market phases and "chapters" the U.S. sports betting industry has gone through since PASPA was overturned in 2018
— What market access and skin agreements mean and how they impact operators
— The challenges exchange/marketplace models face in the U.S. compared to traditional sportsbook models
— How same game parlays have been the biggest innovation in recent years in sports betting products
— Areas for potential future innovation, including improving core user experience and journeys, and new gamified products to appeal to broader audiences
— Career advice for those looking to enter the sports betting industry
Whether you're an industry veteran or just getting started in sports betting, this episode provides valuable insights into the past, present and future of this rapidly evolving space in the U.S. Tune in now for the full conversation!
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Linecraft is presented by Novig
Produced by Thursday Labs
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