Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower is a new videocast series on arms control, nonproliferation, and international security issues. In each episode, hosts Sarah Bidgood and Hanna Notte discuss cutting-edge research and what it means for the most pressing challenges facing policymakers today. In conversation with expert guests, Sarah and Hanna break down these complex topics in ways that bridge the divide between scholarship and the real world. Join them each month as they bring Machiavelli into the Ivory Tower!
Publisher
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)
Episode 12: China's Nuclear Modernization with Dr. Fiona Cunningham
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Fiona Cunningham, an assistant professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. They discuss China's current nuclear modernization, how it manifests, what might be driving it, how to study and analyze it - and what US policymakers should do about it.
Topics discussed:
China's Nuclear Modernization: Increases in size, readiness, accuracy and diversity
China's Nuclear Modernization: Motivations
China's push for a treaty of no-first-use of nuclear weapons
China's ICBM test in late September 2024
How to study China's nuclear modernization
China and the concept of nuclear balance
Policy implications
How to bridge the gap between scholarship and policy
29 May 2024
Episode 11: Germany's Atomic Zeitenwende - A Conversation with Ulrich Kühn
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Ulrich Kühn, who is head of the research area “Arms Control and Emerging Technologies” at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH) and a Non-Resident Scholar of the Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They discuss “Germany and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century: Atomic Zeitenwende?”, a new book Ulrich edited and published with Routledge in early 2024.
Topics addressed:
“Germany and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century: Atomic Zeitenwende?”
Germany and nuclear deterrence options: State of play of the German debate
Atomic Zeitenwende and public opinion
Germany's technical/technological capacity for Atomic Zeitenwende
Germany as a potential proliferator in comparative perspective
Germany's balancing act between nuclear deterrence and disarmament
How to bridge the divide between policymakers and the expert community
7 Apr 2024
Episode 10: The psychology of nuclear brinkmanship with Rose McDermott
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Hanna and Sarah are joined by Rose McDermott, the David and Marianna Fisher University Professor of International Relations at Brown University. Together, they discuss Professor McDermott's recent article with Reid Pauly on the psychology of nuclear brinkmanship, the under-appreciated role of individuals in nuclear decision-making, and similarities and differences between the psychologies of political elites and the general population. They also consider more generally how and where political psychology and behavioral economics can enhance security studies by challenging normative assumptions about nuclear decision-making and shedding light on the ways that individuals actually behave in the face of uncertainty. Their conversation concludes with an exploration of the policy implications of Professor McDermott's findings and ways to more effectively bridge the gap between scholarship and practice.
20 Mar 2024
Episode 09: North Korea and the Bomb - A Conversation with Ankit Panda
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Ankit Panda, who is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They begin their wide-ranging discussion with a review of Ankit's 2020 book "Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea". Sarah, Hanna, and Ankit then engage in an exchange on current developments on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea's cooperation with Russia, and the need to treat North Korea as a problem of nuclear risk reduction, among other issues. They end by discussing the challenges of studying North Korean nuclear weapons issues and how academia and policy-makers can most fruitfully interact.
28 Jun 2023
Episode 08 : Russia's Nuclear Fever - A Conversation with Rose Gottemoeller
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Rose Gottemoeller, who is the Steven C. Hazy lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). Prior to joining Stanford, Ms. Gottemoeller served as the Deputy Secretary General of NATO and, before that, as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the US Department of State.
They begin their wide-ranging conversation with a discussion of the challenges and policy recommendations that Ms. Gottemoeller raised in a recent piece for the Financial Times, in which she argued that the “West must act now to break Russia’s nuclear fever.” They then turn their attention to one example of this “nuclear fever,” namely, recent debates within Russia’s strategic community about the utility and necessity of nuclear use. From here, they analyze prospects for nuclear risk reduction, the implications of Russia’s planned deployments of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus, the future of multilateral nuclear diplomacy post-February 2022, and NATO’s upcoming summit in Vilnius. They conclude their conversation with Ms. Gottemoeller’s observations about how policymakers, analysts, and academics interact with the American system and why this mode of interaction strengthens national and international security.
Topics:
1. Russia’s Nuclear Fever
2. The nuclear debate in Russia
3. The future of US-Russia arms control
4. Russia’s nuclear deployments to Belarus
5. Nuclear sharing at the 2023 NPT PrepCom
6. The art of the possible in multilateral nuclear diplomacy
7. Options for nuclear risk reduction
8. The 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius
9. Bridging the gap between policymakers and scholarsDescription forthcoming
15 May 2023
Episode 07: All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation - A Conversation with Rachel Whitlark
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Rachel Whitlark, associate professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Their conversation focuses on Professor Whitlark’s 2021 book, All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation, and what it reveals about the influence of leaders’ prior beliefs on their counterproliferation strategies once in office.
They begin with a discussion of the origins of this volume, where it fits within broader IR scholarship and the challenges and rewards of using archival material to understand leaders’ beliefs in retrospect. They then explore the relevance of Professor Whitlark’s central findings to other aspects of nuclear decision-making and contemporary nonproliferation challenges such as Iran’s evolving nuclear program.
At the end of their discussion, they reflect on the utility of scholarship to nuclear policymaking and ways to bridge the gap between the academic and practitioner communities. They conclude with some observations about less obvious but important ways scholars can shape policy, including by educating the next generation of decision-makers.
21 Feb 2023
Episode 06: One Year On - The Proliferation Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine. A Conversation with Professor Nicholas Miller
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Nicholas Miller, associate professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. Their conversation focuses on the proliferation implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on. With Professor Miller, they examine the evolving discourse around proliferation cascades over time and assess whether concerns about the emergence of such a cascade following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been exaggerated. In so doing, they discuss insights Professor Miller has derived from his work relating to the factors that drive or inhibit proliferation, the degree to which some appear to matter more than others, and the relationship between arms control and nonproliferation regimes. Toward the end of their discussion, they touch upon the concept of “nuclear learning” and speculate about the kinds of lessons policymakers globally might draw from the current crisis. At the conclusion of the conversation, Professor Miller offers his view on the interactions between the scholarly and policy communities, what they can gain from interacting with one another, and techniques and approaches to make these interactions more productive.
22 Nov 2022
Episode 05: North Korea's Nuclear Hinge Points
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Dr. Siegfried Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and current Distinguished Professor of Practice at CNS. Their conversation centers on Dr. Hecker's forthcoming book, Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2023). Dr. Hecker offers insights into the DPRK's dual-track strategy of diplomacy and nuclear development and highlights missed opportunities when Washington might have been able to channel Pyongyang toward the elimination of nuclear weapons and did not. He shares insights gleaned from his many visits to North Korea and reflects on both the future of US policy toward the DPRK and the importance of facilitating engagement between scientists and diplomats.
29 Aug 2022
Episode 04: Nuclear Deterrence and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna are joined by Jeffrey Lewis, Professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). Jeffrey is also the founder of Arms Control Wonk, the leading blog and podcast on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation.
Today's discussion topics include:
the implications of Russia's war against Ukraine and China's growing nuclear arsenal on the concept of nuclear deterrence;
the ways forward in dealing with Iran's nuclear program;
the challenges to arms control posed by disinformation;
the reasons why individuals matter in all of this;
And much more.
22 Apr 2022
Episode 03: Nuclear Escalation and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Dr. Kristin ven Bruusgaard
The third episode of the podcast series deals with nuclear escalation and the war in Ukraine. Hosts Sarah Bidgood and Hanna Notte invite Dr. Kristin ven Bruusgaard, a Postdoctoral Fellow and Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, to explain the implications of Russian nuclear strategy and the modernization of its conventional forces for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Has the Russian Government already decided to use nuclear weapons? Tune in to find out.
17 Mar 2022
Episode 02: Nuclear Weapons and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Dr. Mariana Budjeryn
In the second episode of the series, Sarah and Hanna speak with Dr. Mariana Budjeryn, a research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. Dr. Budjeryn discusses her new book, Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press 2022). In their conversation, the hosts and guest draw connections between Dr. Budjeryn’s findings and the war in Ukraine, focusing in particular on the implications of Russia’s unprovoked invasion for nonproliferation and arms control and Russia’s spurious allegations that Ukraine is pursuing a nuclear capability. They also question some of the broad assumptions held within International Relations about deterrence and the former Soviet space and discuss how the expert and academic communities can best contribute to policymaker understanding amidst the current crisis.
26 Jan 2022
Episode 01: Nuclear Doctrine and the Law of Armed Conflict—A Conversation with Professor Scott Sagan
In the first episode of the series, Sarah and Hanna speak with Prof. Scott Sagan, who is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. The hosts discuss with Professor Sagan his recently coauthored article in International Security entitled, “The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in US Nuclear Doctrine.” The conversation tackles the relationship between nuclear doctrine and the law of armed conflict, related ethical and legal concerns, the implications for US policymakers and military planners, recommendations for the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review, and more generally the dangers inherent in “siloing” legal and strategic studies.
Prof. Scott Sagan is a Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is known for his research on nuclear weapons policy and nuclear disarmament, including discussions of system accidents, and has published widely on these subjects.
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