Market Moments with the Marvins is hosted by Carl Marvin. He is a young professional, new to the investing world, and just joined his family’s multigenerational global investing firm. Each episode, he will be joined by a Portfolio Manager at Marvin & Palmer for an insightful conversation on all things investing.
Carl is thrilled and fortunate to learn from mentors who are not just incredible investors but also his grandfather, uncle, and dad. They will walk him through moments in their decades-long investing career by taking a holistic approach which will include market fundamentals, professional experience, public sentiment, and personal anecdotes. We hope our listeners will benefit from a first-hand account of market history.
Marvin & Palmer has one of the longest records of global equity investing, and we believe that understanding the past makes us better at identifying patterns in today’s markets. We are excited to share our expertise with others as we collectively strive to better understand the markets and world we are living in today.
Join Carl on his journey of learning the ins & outs of the investing world while also learning more about his own family.
Episode 10 - Peter Atwater and the Great Financial Crisis (2007-8)
Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) will join Steve on the show today to break down the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8. Peter is an author, professor, researcher, and consultant. His work focuses on the study of confidence and how it affects the decisions we make. He recently released the book The Confidence Map, where he deep dives into the subject with the framing of his Confidence Quadrants. Tune in to hear about "Overconfidence Bingo" and what happens to financial terms with cute names.
1:35 Peter’s Beginning in the GFC
5:15 Housing Bubble
8:05 Peter’s Confidence Quadrants
10:25 Comfort Zone and Overconfidence
12:40 Information Flows and What is News
17:10 Underconfidence and Sentiment Lows in the GFC
20:05 Similarities between Bubbles
24:15 Consistent Mindframes
29:20 Launch Pad and Economic Cycles
The Confidence Map:
https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3FR7DV625R0MJ&keywords=the+confidence+map+peter+atwater&qid=1695917229&sprefix=confidence+map%2Caps%2C313&sr=8-1
More of Peter’s work:
https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater
https://peteratwater.com
8 Aug 2023
Episode 9 - Bob Farrell's Beginnings
Dave will be joined by our first external guest, the legendary market technician Bob Farrell, as they walk through his start in the industry and broad market perspective. Across five decades at Merrill Lynch, Bob helped pioneer their technical analysis department by combining deep quantitative work with market psychology and investor sentiment. His lasting legacy is highlighted by his 10 Rules for Investors, which are still used on the Street. Beyond this, Dave and Bob are great friends who have known each other for decades and love to get together to talk markets. Steel sharpens steel, as they say.
Link to Bob Farrell's 10 Rules for Investors
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=overview:bob_farrell_10_rules
1:35 Introduction
2:20 Bob’s Background
4:15 Starting at Merrill Lynch
7:55 Learning Technical Analysis & Focusing on Institutional Clients
11:15 Building a Name
13:50 Taking Over and Hitting the Road
16:20 The Nifty Fifty & Making the Big Call
25:05 Decades of Friendship
20 Jul 2023
Episode 8 - End Of Apartheid In South Africa (1997)
Steve discussed his experience covering South Africa Equity Markets in the 1990s following the end of Apartheid.
2:40 Apartheid
5:20 South African Economy and Background
10:00 Rugby
11:20 Local Companies
13:20 Broader EM Bull Market
16:20 Steve’s Takeaways
22 Jun 2023
Episode 7 - Japan Opens Up & Dave's First International Investment(1981)
Dave talks about his first Japanese investment in 1981. Tune in to hear about Japan’s historic rise, comparisons to other long bull markets, and how things have changed (and not) over 40 years!
2:00 World Background
3:20 Japan Background
6:00 Japan’s Rise
7:15 MITI’s role and focus
11:45 Japan, Inc.
14:30 Context for the Japanese Market
18:00 DuPont Pension
19:30 Dave’s First International Investment
22:45 Growing Forever
25:20 Shocks from Visiting
27:30 Comparisons to China
8 Jun 2023
Episode 6 - Mexico Takes Off (1991)
Dave takes Carl through his first trip and investments in Mexico. Highlights include meeting the Finance Minister of Mexico, the experience of investing early in international markets, and an era of hope.
3:30 Cultural Events
4:10 Socio-Economic Backdrop
7:30 Mexican Opportunity and International Hope
11:30 Mexican Equity Market
12:45 Meeting Pedro Aspe- Finance Minister of Mexico
17:30 Privatization of SOE (state-owned enterprises)
20:30 Process of Investing in Mexico
25 May 2023
Episode 5 - Opening Of Brazil (1994)
World Cup wins, liberalizing markets, and trips to the zoo! Join us for Steve’s first episode, where he talks about his 1994 experience in Brazil.
3:30 Optimism Around the World
5:30 The State of Brazilian Equity Markets
8:20 Brazilian Historical Context
11:00 1994 in Brazil
14:00 Brazilian Economy
16:15 Visiting Brazil
18:45 Looking Back
23:10 Investor Relations and a Trip to the Zoo
11 May 2023
Episode 4 - Black Monday (1987)
Mondays are the worst!
Dave and Carl discuss Black Monday (1987), the biggest single-day market decline of his nearly 60-year career. Dave recounts how the crash sparked fears of a depression. They also talk about the vast differences in trading throughout his career.
1:00 Background
2:50 Historical Market Context and Presidential Cycles
4:50 The Week Before
7:45 Preparing for Monday
8:40 Reliving Black Monday
9:25 Index Futures
11:15 Portfolio Insurance and Snowballing
14:50 Differences in Trading Overtime
23:25 The Aftermath
28:15 Preparing for a Depression
32:50 Similarities to COVID Market Decline
34:30 Differences as a New Entrepreneur
27 Apr 2023
Episode 3 - Peso Devaluation: Mexico 1994
Dave and Carl discuss the Peso Devaluation in Mexico (1994). Dave recounts this event as one of his most important lessons in the investing world (learned the hard way). They talk about the importance of currency in international investing and keeping your mind at peace.
1:00 Background
1:50 Cultural Events
2:50 Socio-Political Backdrop
5:45 Peso Devaluation
8:45 Currency and International Investing
12:20 Response to Market Sell-Off
15:00 Learning from Mistakes
18:45 Unforcastable Events and Freeing Your Thoughts
21:25 Importance of Currency in International Investing
23:45 Humbling Experience (Have to Do it Yourself)
6 Apr 2023
Episode 2 - Crash Of The Nifty Fifty
Dave talks Carl through his first big break in the industry when he successfully navigated the crash of the Nifty Fifty in 1973-4. Dave shares with Carl his promotion to co-Portfolio Manager at IDS, what it’s like making the big call, and more. Their market topics included the Yom Kippur War and the ensuing oil shock, Price Controls, Inflation, and more.
1:00 Personal Background
3:00 Cultural Events
4:00 Socio-Political Backdrop
7:00 Nifty Fifty Market Decline and Oil Shock
11:15 Price Controls and Gas Lines
14:00 Inflation and the Fed
15:00 IDS Promotion and Portfolio Positioning
19:00 Base Period and Price Controls
22:00 Dave’s Basic Industry Bets
23:15 Making the Big Call
23 Mar 2023
Episode 1 - Growth of the Nifty Fifty
Dave discusses the growth of the Nifty Fifty in 1972-3. Carl hears about Dave’s experience as a new father of three, Assistant Portfolio Manager at IDS, and in the Army Reserves. In the markets, Dave covers interest rates, guns and butter, Nixon, inflation, and more.
1:25 Personal Background
3:35 World Background
8:05 Nifty Fifty Background
13:15 Dave’s portfolio positioning
15:25 Going against the Wind
17:15 Guns and Butter
19:25 Vietnam War Sentiment
20:50 Dave’s Army Reserve Experience
22:45: Interest Rates and the Markets
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