About N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)
Reuploads from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/@nntalebproba). This is NOT an official channel of his, just a "fan" who wanted to have the conferences and conversations available in this format. If there is any issue with this, I will take down the content. Just reach out to @thejuansuero on X or thejuansuero@gmail.com
Hopefully some of you find this useful!
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Unofficial) (Uploaded by Juan Suero)
Sornette vs. Taleb Diametrically Opposite Approaches to Risk & Predictability (2014)
An ETH sponsored meeting and debate between Nassim Taleb and Didier Sornette. Edited to eliminate the parts of the conversation not involving either but otherwise comprehensive.A "diplomatic debate" is defined by Taleb as a conversation in which one looks for synthesis (as opposed to one in which one is trying, as in war, to win the argument, as with political debates). Clearly this type of debate only works when the two parties have mutual respect for each other.
Original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuvbghZuM8U
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism (2019)
A presentation at USJ during the Lebanese protests that was live on TV.In the Lebanese "dialect".
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU
11 Nov 2025
Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020)
Paper in Nature Physics on "the dog wags the tails", how pandemics are fat tailed and the implications.https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156... (https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa1hpeUZfM2xVdlpGNDhKOUFycTM3cmVpM2tTUXxBQ3Jtc0trRTdBSThpQklzaDZHY21NQklqWXJteXNJcFdlbkg0cDlKTzYyVzhydl9lcWlCSFFUYkdYeUduVUM0RDQyTkctbVJOSmg3NkpRSjU3WWM2Z0RFeEdEdEN0RzQtdWZIa2pHRVFobVJnTV83NHJaY2R0TQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41567-020-0921-x&v=ggrW6qi0qZQ)We also discuss the dangers of verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords without understanding probability s.a. BS vendor Philip Tetlock. They produce one point estimates for distributions with unstable, unknown or infinite moments, which is pseudoscience.We propose basic probability training. “Learn probability for years before learning statistics, or you will hurt yourself”.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggrW6qi0qZQ
11 Nov 2025
Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop) (2023)
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60sNXOyGmps
11 Nov 2025
STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024
TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling.Stephen Wolfram's discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKWyx7Mw_rQ
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 4 (2024)
Geoengineering -- Mao's Four Pest Problem -- Brexit -- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government -- The "LongTermism" nonsense of SBF -- The Final ChapterOriginal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-xhpBuNdCw
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 3 (2024)
Why Ilmanen-style "simulations" of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of 1) need to extrapolate extremes, and 2) The Niederhoffer problem.
The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaWLcxTMwk8
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 2 (2024)
+The Turkey Problem
Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
Meeting Kahneman
The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.
Original Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDq6rCTl_fU
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson's discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 1 (2024)
Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuoCxJ9y8-0
11 Nov 2025
Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution (2024)
The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. "Real tails" do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails.Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced "Ber-noo-yi" not "Ber-noo-li", much like consigliere is pronounced "consiyyere".
Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMvQeH9oo2w
11 Nov 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Pierre Zalloua discuss 'Ancestors' (2025)
A discussion with Pierre Zalloua about his book Ancestors on the Genetic & Cultural History of the Levant. It is the first scientific history of the area, which debunks many historical accounts.Original Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOv97-Z-VhM
11 Nov 2025
Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 20 (The Real World Risk Summer School, 2025)
The great Stephen Wolfram spends 2 hours discussing the ruliads and computational irreducibility at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pve8TYM7fbA&t=8s
11 Nov 2025
Alexander Taleb: Why Do Planes Crash? (2025)
Alexander Taleb, aerospace engineer, lectures at the #RWRI (https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/rwri) summer school 2025 (#RWRI (https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/rwri) 20) on plane safety. The lecture has close to 2 hours of Q&A.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIgzkEA2kPg
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