Every trading day begins with the same question:
Is there actually something unusual happening today?
Most traders jump straight to charts, headlines and opinions. But markets leave behavioural fingerprints long before anyone explains them.
Hosted by David Martin, full-time trader and founder of SYWBDY and Mosaic.trade (http://Mosaic.trade), Nothing to See Here is a short daily market research briefing exploring one piece of market behaviour worth paying attention to before the trading day begins.
Rather than predicting where markets are going, each episode examines how similar conditions have behaved historically, what today’s price action looks like relative to that history, and the questions worth asking next.
No trade calls. No sensational headlines. No certainty.
Just historical market research, objective context, and a framework for making better trading decisions.
Because sometimes there’s everything to see.
After a Wide ASX Day: Does the Session Pick a Direction Early? | 27 Oct 2026
The ASX session had a 104-point range yesterday. Since 2021, 277 ASX sessions have followed a prior-day range of at least 70 points, and in 47% of them the open was within 10 points of the session high or low.
Today's question: after a wide day, does the ASX pick a direction early?
Filter (Mosaic Data Lab):
• AUS200 ASX SESSION RANGE (PRIOR DAY) at or above 70 (prior day's ASX session high minus low)
AUS200 ASX SESSION HIGH reached at least 40 points from the ASX open in 33% of sessions (90 of 277); AUS200 ASX SESSION LOW reached 40 points in 36% (100 of 277); 66% reached 40 points in one direction or the other. Positions left on both sides by the prior day's swing is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.
Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade
I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.
25 Oct 2026
FTSE Down, AUS Futures Down: If the S&P Adds to It, How Does the ASX Open? | 26 Oct 2026
The FTSE fell 57 points on Friday, and AUS200 futures were about 43 points below Friday's ASX close. In 20 previous sessions where that combination was followed by an S&P fall of at least 5 points in the first hour after the Globex reopen, the first 15 minutes of the ASX were single digits or lower in 19.
Today's question: if the S&P adds to the selling, how does the ASX open?
Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):
• FTSE (PRIOR DAY) at or below -30
• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) at or below -40 (before the ASX open)
• US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at or below -5 (first hour after the Globex reopen)
AUS200 FIRST 15 MINS: single digits or lower in 19 of 20, median -14.5. AUS200 ASX SESSION LOW reached at least 20 points below the open in 18 of 20 and 40 points in 14; AUS200 ASX SESSION HIGH reached 40 points in only 3 of 20. AUS200 ASX SESSION (open to close) lower in 14 of 20, median -21; AUS200 DAY FUTURES lower in 16 of 20, median -31. A lack of buyers after a European sell-off and a lower futures gap is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.
Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade
I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.
22 Oct 2026
After an S&P Sell-Off That Started in Asia: How Much Bounce Next Day? | 23 Oct 2026
The S&P 500 fell 92 points last night, and the US500 Asia session alone was down 64. In the 11 previous sessions after the S&P closed lower with an Asia session down at least 50 points, the S&P reached at least 48 points above the Globex reopen every time.
Today's question: after a day that bad, how much bounce is there the next day?
Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):
• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or below -1 (S&P 500 cash close-to-close)
• US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at or below -50 (Globex reopen to 5pm)
US500 GLOBAL HIGH (from the Globex reopen): at least +48 in all 11, median +75. US500 GLOBAL LOW reached 40 points in only 3 of 11 (median -27). S&P500 cash close-to-close: higher in 9 of 11, median +43. Short positions left over from a weak day being squeezed is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.
Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade
I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.
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