'On Future War' is a 12-part series exploring the evolving landscape of military strategy and defense technologies with a focus on the Pacific. Visit the On Future War website (www.onfuturewar.com).
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On Future War is a 12-part series exploring the evolving landscape of military strategy and defense technologies with a focus on the Indo-Paciific.
On this penultimate episode, OFW series regulars Scott "Roger" Chafian and Mike "Pako" Benitez discuss how big data, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are collectively changing not only our lives on a near-daily basis, but influencing armed conflict. And yet, humans must remain in the loop—find out why
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22 Feb 2025TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 10: Computer Chip Vulnerabilities
In this episode we will be discussing computer chip vulnerabilities. In recent years the United States has shifted focus from the Global War on Terrorism to preparing for peer level threats. Key to this shift is the development of modern, networked weapons. These weapons would not be possible without microelectronics, better known as computer chips. These small components are the enabling technology for every aspect of modern society and advanced weaponry. How would the F-35 get off the ground without computer chips?
While the development of these chips is a worldwide endeavor, over 98% of logic and memory chips are fabricated in just two countries, both located in the Indo-Pacific region. What happens if the supply of these chips is threatened? How can the United States meet this challenge?
Scott Chafian, and Daniel Marujo, the president of Trusted Strategic Solutions, will review this, and more, in this month’s episode of On Future War.
References and Notes
TSS Microchip Primer - https://tss.llc/microchip-primer/ (https://tss.llc/microchip-primer/)
DOD INSTRUCTION 5200.44 - Protection of Mission Critical Functions to Achieve Trusted Systems and Networks
https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodi/520044p.pdf (https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodi/520044p.pdf)
Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War by P. W. Singer and August Cole
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15 Jan 2025
On Future War Episode 9: Navigating the Horizon: Understanding the Complexities of Long-Range Contested Logistics in Modern Warfare
Naval experts Captain James Stavridis & Dr. Brendan Mulvaney explore the complexities of long-range contested logistics and maritime choke points, highlighting the imperative for resilient logistical strategies in modern warfare.
18 Dec 2024
On Future War Episode 8: Strengthening the Chain: Ensuring Resilience in Weapon Supply and Inventory Management
General Michael T. Flynn & Colonel Robert Maginnis explore the critical imperatives of modern warfare logistics, shedding light on the strategic complexities surrounding supply chain management and the need for resilient inventory levels.
16 Oct 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 7: Charting the Course: Exploring the Future of US Warship Development
In the ever-evolving realm of naval warfare, the landscape of US warship development stands at a pivotal juncture, characterized by dynamic shifts in design, technology, and strategic priorities. Join us on a captivating episode of On Future War as we navigate the intricacies of the present and future state of US warship development, shedding light on the near-term outlook for design evolution, procurement strategies, and the imperative quest for technological advancement.
We embark on an insightful exploration of the current trajectory of US warship development, scrutinizing the evolving design paradigms, technological innovations, and strategic imperatives that shape the landscape of modern naval capabilities. How does the near-term future of warship development and procurement unfold, and what strategic initiatives are being prioritized to ensure the continued superiority of the US naval fleet? We engage in a comprehensive analysis of the evolving priorities and adaptive strategies that underscore the future of US warship development.
Additionally, we confront the critical question of whether the United States is falling behind in the realm of ship design innovation, assessing the comparative landscape of global naval capabilities and technological advancements. Are US warships effectively transforming into modular hosts for "plug and play" systems, or do emerging operational challenges demand a radical shift toward the development of a new, cutting-edge ship design? We dissect the nuances of this pivotal debate, providing a nuanced understanding of the strategic imperatives and technological considerations that underscore the future of US warship design.
Join us for an engaging dialogue at the forefront of US warship development, unraveling the complexities of design evolution, technological innovation, and strategic adaptation that underpin the future of the US naval fleet. Tune in to On Future War for a compelling exploration of the future of naval warfare and the transformative dynamics reshaping the contours of global security and defense strategies.
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20 Aug 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 6: GPS in the mid-21st Century
In the increasingly interconnected landscape of modern warfare, the pivotal role of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology has become indispensable to the operations of the US military. Join Brian "Sunshine" Sinclair and Scott "Roger" Chafian on a thought-provoking episode of On Future War as we explore the intricate nuances surrounding the US military's dependence on GPS, evaluating the vulnerabilities and challenges associated with potential jamming, interference, or destruction of this critical system.
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30 Jun 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 5: The Future of Drones in Warfare
In this episode, Pako and Scar return to examine the concepts, abilities, and future of Remotely Piloted Aircraft in warfare. The discussion reviews the history of technology, from early trials in the 1910s to the current day. The difference between remotely piloted aircraft and autonomous aircraft is clarified, emphasizing the human involvement in drone operations. The conversation also investigates the different levels of autonomy and the possibility for cooperative combat aircraft. The use of drones in war zones, such as Ukraine, is analyzed, including the emergence of expendable drones for kinetic operations. The difficulty of the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) mission is underscored as one of the most demanding air missions.
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29 May 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 4: 5th Generation Fighters
On this episode, Mike "Pako" Benitez and Andrew "Scar" Van Timmeren discuss the differences between fourth and fifth-generation fighter jets, focusing on the F-22 and F-35, with insights on the learning curve and intuitive nature of the Lightning II compared to the complexity of the Raptor.
Pako and Scar further discuss situational awareness and task management in modern fighters, with a look ahead to the future of air superiority with a discussion on sixth-generation fighters.
Brought to you by Authentic Media (http://www.authenticmedia.io/) with the support of Cubic Defense (https://www.cubic.com/defense).
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2 May 2024
On Future War Episode 3: Mobility in the Littorals
In this early access episode 3 of On Future War Mike ‘Pako ’Benitez (USAF), Dr. Lance ‘Boil’ Lewis (USMC) and Scott ‘Roger’ Chafian (USN). explore the background and rationale behind the Marine Corps' Force Design 2030, which has fundamentally changed the doctrine, and operating concepts of the US Marine Corps. Removing tanks and transitioning from artillery to rocket units were just the first part of the plan. Standing up Marine Littoral Regiments (MLR), as part of naval expeditionary force, enables greater mobility, sustainability, and operations in the maritime domain, giving commanders greater options for sea denial operations. We also discuss the impact of Force Design 2030 on the other services, highlighting how jointness and interdependencies are crucial for effective military operations.
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18 Mar 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 2: Unsinkable Carriers
In this episode of "On Future War," hosts Scott "Roger" Chafian, Mike "Pako" Benitez, and Matt "Flounder" Arny dive into the strategic and controversial world of China's man-made island bases. They discuss the historical locations, construction strategies, and strategic intents behind these "unsinkable carriers.” We explore the military viability, potential vulnerabilities, and the considerable political fallout from building territory in contentious waters.
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21 Feb 2024TRANSCRIPT
On Future War Episode 1: Defending Against Power Projection
'On Future War' (www.onfutureware.com)is a 12-part series exploring the evolving landscape of military strategy and defense technologies with a focus on the Pacific.
On this inaugural episode, Mike "Pako" Benitez (The Merge (https://themerge.co)) and Scott "Roger" Chafian set the stage by delving into the challenges posed by technologies (including cruise- and hypersonic missiles) to power projection and the sustainability of forward deployed bases in modern, peer-level conflicts.
Brought to you by Authentic Media with the support of Cubic Defense (www.cubic.com) (https://www.cubic.com).
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Inside a recent episode
On Future War Episode 11: AI and ML in Future War
Published 24 Mar 2025 · Transcript excerpt
[…] Yeah, the tools and tool chains become very, very important. And because of the way that these tools are structured, there's different attributes across the tools. So there's a couple of examples that used at the work college by three different examples. And it was the same exact problem. And all we did was switch the tool in that process. And you can see the variance of quality of outcomes. And so right now there's no single thing that's optimized to do everything. Right. Because it's just a compromise. And so you end up having a toolbox with the set of tools. And so the human right now, let me talk about agentically on later, but right now a human is responsible for picking the right tool for the right job to help them. […]
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