The pandemic has triggered an economic crisis such as the world has never seen. The economic downturn was followed by an unprecedented rebound. It all happened so fast. It left us with a torrent of numbers and seemingly inextricable questions. Welcome to PCR, a special limited series by The National in which we try to make sense of the numbers and answer important questions on the Post Covid-19 Recovery. Listen to prominent economists and business leaders as they explain the challenges and opportunities of a unique and often complex economic recovery. Join Mustafa Alrawi, assistant editor-in-chief as he explores the many features of the Post Covid-19 Recovery.
Digital and online banking have already been steadily rising in recent years, but the pandemic introduced large-scale, full-speed uptake. In some instances, we’ve seen a 200 per cent jump in new mobile banking registrations.
While digitisation was inevitable in the banking sector, many hurdles were slowing the process. From regulations, to security concerns, and the lack of substantial investments, many obstacles stood in the way of a much needed digital transition.
When the pandemic hit, the situation changed. Consumers expectations were the main driver of faster and larger digital banking transition.
2021 was a year for fintech innovation. Electronic payments took off as people shopped online. Many managed their finances online rather than going to bank branches.
Fintech and Big tech companies have achieved tremendous growth since the pandemic.
The future of banking and financial services, is going to be written by both traditional banks and innovative fintech players. Sometimes they are going to be competing, and sometimes cooperating.
Guests:
Carol Houle, Senior Vice President, Global Head of Consulting & Marketing for Financial Services & Insurance at Atos
Georgi Konov, Partner at McKinsey and Co, digital, distribution, and retail banking
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National’s assistant editor-in-chief
10 Feb 2022
Episode 7: Middle East and North Africa - one region, worlds apart
Nowhere in the world has the unevenness of the economic recovery been more pronounced and acute than across countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
Some Mena countries already struggling with economic problems before the pandemic. Others, including Egypt and GCC countries, were in the midst of huge structural reforms when the pandemic hit.
In a region already defined by many imbalances and economic contrasts, what does the post-Covid recovery look like?
Guests:
Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund
Alia Moubayed, emerging markets economist
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National’s assistant editor-in-chief
23 Jan 2022
Episode 6: the post pandemic outlook for energy
Higher energy prices and shortages are among the main features of the economic recovery.
The world faces multi-factorial equations where any solution must comply with climate urgency and the need for energy transition, while at the same time avoid energy shortages and energy-related political tensions.
The post covid recovery has exposed many problems and underlying weaknesses of the global energy supply. Current energy tensions may well provide valuable lessons for a smooth green energy transition.
Guests:
Dr Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. A Pulitzer-prize winning author. His latest book is The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.
Robin Mills, chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director in the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.
Silja Baller - Insights Lead, Frontier Insights, the World Economic Forum.
Laurence Boone, Chief Economist at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
22 Dec 2021
Episode 5: Travel, tourism and hospitality
In 1950, around 25 million people took international flights.
By 2019, there were more than 1.5 billion passengers flying to international destinations. Then the pandemic hit.
The travel and tourism industry has been one of the most affected sectors by the pandemic. Before the pandemic, travel and tourism accounted for one in four new jobs created around the world.
The pandemic has not only disrupted travel, tourism and hospitality, it has also transformed these industries.
Find out more about how these sectors are recovering and what are the new trends emerging during the Post Covid-19 Recovery.
Guests:Tiffany Misrahi, Vice-President of Policy and Research at The World Travel and Tourism Council
Haitham Mattar, Managing Director of India, Middle East & Africa at IHG Hotels and Resorts
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
22 Dec 2021
Episode 4: A very expensive recovery
The Post Covid-19 Recovery continues to progress whilst inflation is reaching historic levels and consumers are being squeezed by higher prices. The annual rate of inflation in the United States hit 6.2 per cent in October 2021, the highest in more than three decades. On the other side of the Atlantic, inflation has pushed the cost of living in the UK in October to a 10-year high.
Global food prices have hit the highest level in over a decade after rising by more than 30 per cent in the last year, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
But what does that mean for the economy?
What does higher inflation tell us about the state of the recovery and, most importantly, why is a persisting high inflation a real threat to the recovery ?
Find out more about what is causing these historic inflation rates and when economists think the situation will start improving.
Guests:Laurence Boone, Chief Economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD
Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director in the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Mahir Rasheed, US economist at Oxford Economics
Simon MacAdam, Senior Global Economist at Capital Economics
Ezra Greenberg, Partner, Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice at McKinsey and Company
Martin Hirt, Senior Partner at McKinsey and Company
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
22 Dec 2021
Episode 3: Trade disruptions and the future of globalisation
Fact No 1: no one really predicted the recovery to come with supply disruptions and bottlenecks.
Fact Number 2: there is a consensus that supply-chain disruptions are transitory. But what caused these bottlenecks in the first place? And what happens to the recovery if these disruptions persist longer than expected?
Could the pandemic and the recovery signal the end of globalisation as we know it?
Guests:Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director in the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Simon MacAdam, Senior Global Economist at Capital Economics
Silja Baller, Insights Lead, Frontier Insights, the World Economic Forum
Mahir Rasheed, US economist at Oxford Economics
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
22 Dec 2021
Episode 2: Employment and the future of work
The pandemic has caused the loss of 255 million full-time jobs, or approximately four times greater than the number lost during the 2009 global financial crisis, according to the International Labour Organisation. That’s equivalent to $3.7 trillion in lost labour income.
The pandemic has not only disrupted the labour market, it also triggered many transitions and in some cases a deep transformation of working tasks and arrangements. What do job mismatches tell us about the labour market ?
What are the underlying trends that are shaping the future of work ?
Guests:Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director in the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Silja Baller , Insights Lead, Frontier Insights, the World Economic Forum
Lydia Boussour , Senior US Economist at Oxford Economics
Martin Hirt, Senior Partner at McKinsey and Company
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
22 Dec 2021
Episode 1: The light-switch effect
What happens when the economy shuts down and then reopens almost overnight? Two years ago, this question would have sounded far-fetched. The scenario was simply unthinkable.
Today we are navigating through the complex reality of a light-switch-type economic recovery. The rebound has been uneven across countries and industries, creating mismatches and disruptions. Will the world emerge from the pandemic with wider fault lines between rich and poor countries or will the recovery be strong and even enough to bring prosperity and growth for developing countries?
Guests:Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director in the IMF's Strategy, Policy and Review Department
Mahir Rasheed, US economist at Oxford Economics
Haitham Mattar, Managing Director of India, Middle East & Africa at IHG Hotels and Resorts
Ezra Greenberg, Partner, Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice at McKinsey and Company
Martin Hirt, Senior Partner at McKinsey and Company
Narrated by: Mustafa Alrawi, The National's assistant editor-in-chief
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