Pints & Policy

About Pints & Policy

Britain's Independent Economic Think Tank

Publisher

GBTT

Category

news

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

8 Aug 2026

Latest episode

11 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

17 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   11 Oct 2026

   Don't hike into a supply shock | The Bank's 5 November call, France's spread and a UK bond crisis

   Gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 this week, and markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates on 5 November. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to ask what is driving the bond sell-off: forced sellers and a buyers' strike, or years of government overspending. They cover France's widening spread and who would rescue it, whether Britain needs a bond crisis to force fiscal repair, why a rate rise into an energy shock is the wrong policy mix, the 28 October Budget, and the US deal with Russia on diesel exports. Chapters 0:00 Pints & Policy 0:08 Another awful week for bonds 0:46 A stop-loss and a buyers' strike 3:26 Rising yields, and AI debt crowding out 5:22 Japanese money leaves France 6:06 Why buy a gilt near 6% when SoftBank pays 9%? 7:12 Pension funds no longer soak up gilts 7:37 France's spread and Italy's 2011 peak 8:05 Bailey and De Cos warn on market fragility 10:51 Would an ECB rescue reward France? 11:22 Where is the strike on the ECB backstop? 13:06 Contagion: Spain and Italy 13:40 Spain's election and Italy's direction 15:31 The ESM and France's credit rating 16:25 Bunds back as a safe haven 17:28 Damian's UnHerd essay: does it take a bond crisis? 19:43 Does Britain need a bond crisis? 22:51 5 November: a rate rise priced in 23:05 "You do not hike rates into a negative supply shock" 25:11 A second rise in February? 26:25 The wrong policy mix 27:22 No hire, no fire, and governing day to day 28:30 Bank tax and the 28 October Budget 29:30 Policy by social media, and the long grass 30:28 Trump's Russian diesel deal 31:00 Europe's record, Greenland and an Iran deal 33:01 The midterms and Iran's oil exports 34:18 Sign-off The numbers - The 30-year gilt yield reached 6.05% on Thursday 8 October 2026 and the 10-year touched 5.53%, the highest since early 1998 and July 2007 respectively. - Markets priced about an 81% chance of a quarter-point Bank of England rise on 5 November (LSEG, 7 October); Damian quotes 83 to 90% on air. Bank Rate is 3.75% after a 6-3 vote to hold in September, with three members voting for 4%. - France's 10-year spread over German Bunds passed 140 basis points on 2 October, the widest since 2012, and was about 133 on 9 October. Damian's "around 150" is his round figure. Italy's spread went above 500 basis points at the height of the 2011 crisis. - The Budget is on 28 October 2026. - Yields up 70 to 90 basis points this year, core inflation excluding energy of 2.3 to 2.4%, private-sector pay growth just under 3%, Bank Rate at 4.25% within six months, Iran's crude exports in September and the 6 to 7% hit to refinery capacity are the panel's figures as of recording; Marcus says on air he has not checked the refinery figure. - Market talk in this episode is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Damian says on air he holds no position in gilts. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone (X: @MrMBrown) Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and markets. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

2. 

   9 Oct 2026

   £45m to make one station step-free? | Growth, the Bank's QT losses and the universal credit trap

   David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, has written a report on Britain's economy and its debt. His diagnosis: Westminster has set the wrong incentives, and the blame then lands on pensioners, the rich or people on universal credit. He joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to work through it. They cover the Treasury's indemnity on the Bank of England's QT losses, £45m to make one station step-free, the M4 relief road, taxing land while cutting capital gains tax to 5%, the universal credit taper and Japanification. Damian brings new research on migration and wages outside London, and argues for entrepreneurs on the Monetary Policy Committee and an end to inheritance tax. Chapters 0:00 Pints & Policy 0:08 David's report: Britain's problem is incentives 1:53 Skin in the game: a long-dated gilt 4:43 America's long end v Britain's 5:39 The Treasury insures the Bank's bond losses 7:42 The QT pause and the "moron premium" 8:50 Interest on reserves: what Reform miss 10:27 Energy and structural inflation 12:49 Growth first: £45m for a station 14:19 M4 relief road and the Thames crossing 16:01 Devolution: moving the problem out of London? 17:31 Georgism: tax land, not enterprise 19:23 Land v property, and stamp duty 20:47 Tax the land, cut capital gains to 5% 21:50 Which party would do it? 24:03 Anti-business, anti-growth 25:27 GDP per head and migration 25:56 Wages After the Wave 28:33 Universal credit: an incentive not to work 30:42 Does it take a bond crisis? 31:35 Japanification 32:45 Empty high streets 34:00 The fourth way: fiscal policy and the OBR 35:27 Debt is fine if it buys growth 36:53 More entrepreneurs on the MPC 37:32 Inheritance tax is morally wrong 39:43 Pay MPs for performance? 41:29 Wrap The numbers - Universal credit: above the work allowance, the taper withdraws 55p of universal credit for every extra £1 of take-home pay (DWP rates, 2026-27). - Bank of England, 17 September 2026: gilt sales paused until April 2027; gilts maturing in 2049 or later stay on the balance sheet; £146bn of 2035-49 gilts to be sold at about £20bn a year. Losses on the Asset Purchase Facility are indemnified by HM Treasury. - The £45m step-free scheme is at Peckham Rye station, for which Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh launched a petition on 6 October 2026 (City AM). David says Hackney on air. - M4 relief road: the Welsh Government spent £135.7m on the scheme before it was scrapped in 2019. Damian says £128m on air. - Cambridge Circus Research, "Wages After the Wave" (Hubert Kucharski, October 2026, foreword by Damian Pudner): payrolled jobs in England rose by 2.8m between 2015 and 2025, and 2.3m of them (82%) went to non-UK nationals. The report finds the rise in migrant employment held down pay for British workers outside London. - Industrial energy: David says French industry pays 80% less. The government's own 2026 estimate for supported energy-intensive firms is £86/MWh in the UK against £69/MWh in France, so UK firms pay about a quarter more. - Payrolled employees: 30.2m in August 2026 (early estimate), down 145,000 on the year (ONS). - The Office for Budget Responsibility was set up in 2010. An MP's basic salary is over £90,000. - Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Nothing in this episode is investment advice. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Guest: David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, former UK Growth Director at TradingView (X: @Fink_Money · YouTube: @DavidBelleFink · fink.money) Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

3. 

   8 Oct 2026

   No inheritance tax on the family home? | Stamp duty, legal migration and Tories v Reform

   Kemi Badenoch used her Conservative conference speech to promise that nobody pays inheritance tax on their family home, and to scrap stamp duty on the homes people live in. Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what that means for families, why inheritance tax now reaches far beyond the 1% it was once said to touch, and what scrapping stamp duty could do for a gummed-up housing market. They also cover legal migration and the Tories' record on it, why voters still hold back their trust, whether Reform or the Conservatives can land a knockout on the right, whether Restore could follow Giorgia Meloni's route to power, and the two ideas from this conference season that both of them like. The numbers: Badenoch pledged no inheritance tax on the family home, no stamp duty on primary residences and a National Insurance cut for 21 to 24-year-olds (7 October 2026). 4.72% of UK deaths resulted in an inheritance tax charge in 2023-24 (HMRC). From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds count towards an estate for inheritance tax. Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/SfPn8112R3U Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

4. 

   7 Oct 2026

   Britain's capitalist command economy | Christopher Snowdon on a BBC tax, vaping and 20mph

   Is Britain a "capitalist command economy"? Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, joins Damian Pudner to explain how government now steers private industry with targets and fines, from heat pumps and electric cars to supermarket calories, and why it keeps the blame at arm's length. They also cover a proposed £11-a-month broadband levy to fund the BBC, why more vapers than smokers is good news, Wales's new 65p minimum price for alcohol, 20mph limits, impact assessments with billions in costs and no monetised benefit, the mini-budget compared with today's gilt market, and the one reform Chris would make first. Chris's new book, Inside the Sausage Factory: The Illusion of Evidence-Based Policymaking (IEA): https://iea.org.uk/publications/inside-the-sausage-factory/ Guest: Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics, Institute of Economic Affairs. X: @cjsnowdon Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D0MD0O_1jpw The numbers: the government is reported to be weighing an £11-a-month levy on home broadband bills to replace the TV licence (September 2026). Wales raised its minimum unit price for alcohol from 50p to 65p on 1 October 2026. ONS figures show more adults in Great Britain now vape than smoke (10.0% v 9.1% of adults aged 16 and over, 2024). The 30-year gilt yield went above 6% on 1 October 2026, higher than at the peak of the September 2022 mini-budget sell-off. Other figures quoted in conversation are the speakers' own. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

5. 

   6 Oct 2026

   Vannda's Matt Cull on agents, costs and jobs

   Matt Cull, founder and CEO of Vannda, has spent 25 years putting finance and operations systems into businesses. He joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to talk about what AI is already doing inside companies and what it means for the rest of us. They cover why the doom narrative and the hallucination complaints cannot both be right, automating the finance department, what a small firm should plug in now, why nobody tests a new AI model before relying on it, giving an AI access to your email without letting it send, what tokens cost, staying model-agnostic, running your own model, the EU AI Act, and whether our children should still go to university. The numbers - AI-written code: Anthropic reports that more than 80% of the code merged into its production codebase in May 2026 was written by Claude (Anthropic Institute, "When AI builds itself", June 2026). Matt puts it at 90%. - EU AI Act: the Act classes AI used in hiring and managing staff as high-risk, with extra obligations for firms that use it in the EU. - Student debt: the average borrower entering repayment in England in 2024-25 owed £53,010 (Student Loans Company, provisional). Damian rounds it to £60,000. Guest: Matt Cull, founder and CEO of Vannda Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Pints & Policy talks to guests from across business and politics. Their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/fzLDvKDIybI Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

6. 

   3 Oct 2026

   30-year gilts break 6% for the first time since 1998 | France, the Budget and an early election

   Thirty-year gilt yields broke 6% this week for the first time since 1998. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to work out what is driving the global bond sell-off and how far it has to run. They cover forced sellers and the French spread, whether central banks step in, why markets still price UK rate hikes, the diesel squeeze, the 28 October Budget and its thin headroom, the risk of an early general election, and how they would position for it. The numbers: the 30-year gilt yield rose above 6% on Thursday 1 October 2026, the first time since 1998. Chancellor John Healey delivers his first Budget on 28 October 2026. Rate-hike pricing and bond spreads are the panel's figures as of recording; 17 December is the date from GBTT's own election model. Portfolio talk is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone (X: @MrMBrown). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I3V3qCOqMAM Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

7. 

   2 Oct 2026

   Nearly £40bn a year on housing benefit | SDP's Ross Baglin on debt, migration and defence

   Ross Baglin, interim leader of the SDP, joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to make the case for an "investment state": a government that spends to build things that pay back, rather than on transfers it cannot afford. They go through the flip from investment to entitlements, a debt interest bill now close to the whole education budget, nearly £40bn a year on housing benefit since the state stopped building homes, the SDP's 50,000 net migration target and its Ascension Island plan for small boats, and a homeland-first defence policy. The numbers: the DWP projects a record £38.8bn on housing support (Housing Benefit plus Universal Credit housing costs) in 2026-27. Public sector net debt was 93.8% of GDP at the end of August 2026 (ONS); the OBR expected debt interest of about £111bn in 2025-26. The entitlements v investment ratios are the SDP's own green paper analysis. Net migration of 50,000 and Ascension Island processing are SDP policy as Ross describes it. Guest: Ross Baglin, interim leader of the SDP (X: @ross_baglin). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics; their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CE_CFlV4wkY Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

8. 

   30 Sept 2026

   The triple lock is no longer taboo | £15bn by 2040, a care service and an early election?

   Andy Burnham used his Labour conference speech to put the triple lock on the table. Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what actually changes, what it saves, who pays in the meantime, and why a speech this big looks like the first draft of a manifesto: a National Care Service, closer ties with Europe, electoral reform and, perhaps, an early election. The numbers: the triple lock is unchanged for the rest of this Parliament. From April 2030 the state pension would rise each year by at least prices or 2.5%, with the annual earnings leg replaced by a pledge to hold its value relative to earnings over time (Labour conference speech, 29 Sep 2026). Government estimates put the saving at about £15bn a year by 2040, earmarked for a National Care Service in the next Parliament. Damian's "about £9bn a year" for the early years is his own estimate on air. Burnham has ruled out an early general election; Ben does not believe him. The Budget is on 28 October 2026. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/VqIMFWinoX0 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

9. 

   29 Sept 2026

   Mansion tax from £1.5m? Treble the headache | Mortgage approvals, stamp duty and prime London

   Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, for a read on the housing market this autumn: mortgage approvals at their lowest since December 2023, why mortgage rates now track the oil price, the reported plan to pull the mansion tax threshold down to £1.5m, prime central London, the return of Help to Buy and the case for stamp duty reform. The numbers: mortgage approvals for house purchase were 54,900 in August 2026, down from 55,900 in July, the lowest since December 2023 (Bank of England). Buyer demand rose 5% in the first week of September against a five-year average of 0.4% (Rightmove). The High Value Council Tax Surcharge ("mansion tax") is due from 2028 on homes worth £2m or more; a cut to £1.5m has been reported as under discussion (The Times) but has not been announced. Prime central London prices are down 23% since mid-2015 (Knight Frank). The 77,000 and 230,000 property figures are Knight Frank estimates given by Tom. Guest: Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research, Knight Frank Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/5LeU2ae4lu4 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

10. 

    27 Sept 2026

    A 2.5% deposit? It's 2007 all over again | Heathrow, social care taxes and rejoining the EU

    Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner on the new Your First Home scheme (2.5% deposits on new builds, with the government lending 20%), the Heathrow third runway, tax rises to pay for social care, defence funding, and whether rejoining the EU belongs in Labour's next manifesto. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence) Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) The numbers: Your First Home, announced 26 Sep 2026, pairs a minimum 2.5% deposit with a government equity loan worth 20% of the price, for qualifying new-build homes; price caps, income limits and the launch date are due at the Budget. Heathrow's third runway has slipped from 2035 to 2039. The OBR's March 2026 forecast puts the UK tax burden on course for a post-war record. Figures quoted in conversation are the speakers' own unless listed here. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/NuK_B5vPQlA Pints & Policy is a Great British Think Tank podcast. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info

11. 

    26 Sept 2026

    Gilts at 5.36%: who's selling? | The Bank's QT U-turn, a Fed hike and the Budget

    Pints & Policy, 26 September 2026. The 10-year gilt closed on Friday at 5.36%. Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator and former Bloomberg Opinion columnist, joins Damian Pudner to ask who is selling bonds: hedge funds unwinding big trades, Big Tech borrowing that now rivals the banks', and a Fed that hiked for market stability. They cover why a rate rise is the wrong answer to an energy shock, why diesel matters more than crude, what Healey can do at the 28 October Budget (Marcus's answer: be honest and put 1–2p on income tax), and why the Bank of England's QT rethink is, for once, good news for the taxpayer. Guest: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator and member of the GBTT Advisory Council. X: @marcusashworth Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner On the numbers: the 10-year gilt yield closed at 5.36% on Friday 25 September. Public sector borrowing for April to August 2026 was £77.3bn, £8.1bn above the OBR forecast (ONS). On 17 September the Bank of England paused gilt sales until April 2027, stopped selling gilts maturing in 2049 or later, and will sell £146bn of 2035–49 gilts at £20bn a year (the "hundred and forty odd billion" in the conversation); it will also consult on selling directly to the Debt Management Office. Market pricing and mortgage rates are as quoted at the time of recording. Nothing in this episode is investment advice. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/3e50rADLtT0 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

12. 

    23 Sept 2026

    Can Iran outlast Trump? | Chagos, a "Ministry of Truth" and AI regulation

    Pints & Policy, 23 September 2026. Parliament is in recess until 12 October, so Damian Pudner and Benedict Spence take the UN General Assembly week: Trump's threats against Iran and whether Tehran can simply wait him out, why wars end in victory rather than paper, the Chagos deal heading for the shelf, the new National Centre for Information Defence, small boats and the blue-light convoy, Britain's approach to regulating AI, and the OECD's 1.1% growth forecast. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator. X: @BenedictSpence Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner On the numbers: the OECD's September 2026 interim outlook puts UK growth at 1.1% for 2026, joint second in the G7 with Germany, behind the US on 2.2%. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info. X: @GreatBritishTT

13. 

    20 Sept 2026

    5.4m on PIP and DLA | Welfare, wealth taxes, the mansion tax and an early election

    Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, for a second week on the state of the public finances: the mansion tax the Treasury is reported to be lowering to GBP 1.5m, the 5.4 million people now on PIP and DLA (up from 3.5 million in 2020), a welfare bill heading past GBP 400bn, and whether Andy Burnham should have called an election on the steps of Number 10. Also: inheritance tax and why "only 1% pay" is no longer true, pensioners who are asset rich and income poor, the national mood of "what can I take for me", and why Britain can still get worse (ask Argentina). Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator. X: @BenedictSpence. Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner. Figures quoted are as reported in the conversation on 20 September 2026; check the source data before relying on them. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info. X: @GreatBritishTT. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/S8lvqMNHLFw

14. 

    14 Sept 2026

    The AI Cold War has begun | A $30bn blow-up, the Treasury trade and détente with China

    Izabella Kaminska argues the AI CapEx boom was never really an investment boom, it was an arms race. She and Damian Pudner map how "safety" became a convenient off-ramp, why the money released could rotate into US Treasuries, and how a new US-China détente might actually play out. The figures and claims are the guest's own, offered as analysis rather than financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info

15. 

    14 Sept 2026

    "Recession in all but name" | Reform's £72m, welfare v defence and the Budget

    Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, on Reform's GBP 72m weekend, the assisted dying vote, welfare versus defence ahead of the 28 October Budget, 0.4% growth, and whether the Prime Minister should go to the country early. Figures are as quoted by the speakers at the time of recording. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info

16. 

    14 Sept 2026

    The market's strong message on UK fiscal policy | Gilts, £20bn of tax rises and the Budget

    Gilt yields at multi-decade highs, a 45 basis point "moron premium" over US Treasuries, and a Chancellor with around GBP 20bn to find before the Budget. Markets analyst Michael Brown walks through what the bond market is actually saying about Britain, why the UK is selling off harder than its peers, and who pays when the tax rises land. Host: Damian Pudner. Numbers stated are the speaker's own as at the time of recording. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info

17. 

    8 Aug 2026

    Great British Think Tank - Pints & Policy

    @GreatBritishThinkTank Damian Pudner hosts Michael Brown and Marcus AshworthDamian Pudner is an economist specialising in monetary policy and central bank design, and Senior Research Fellow at the Great British Think Tank. He brings over 25 years in banking and financial markets — with a focus on global macro and fixed income — to his work as a central bank watcher, writer and visiting lecturer on monetary policy and financial stability.His markets career spans leading global investment banks and hedge funds, including Merrill Lynch, UBS and Nomura, and he is founder and CIO of boutique advisory firm Pudner Capital Management. His writing on monetary reform and nominal GDP targeting appears in outlets including CapX, The Telegraph, The Spectator, CityAM and the Institute of Economic Affairs, and he writes a regular Substack on monetary policy and central banking. He holds a first-class degree in Business Management & Economics and a Master's in Money, Banking and Central Banking.Michael Brown is a seasoned, award-winning market analyst, with a record of providing pertinent commentary, analysis, and forecasting across all major asset classes, principally through a global macro focus, over a decade in the financial services industry. He frequently appears in a wide range of UK and international media, discussing macroeconomic themes. Michael holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University.Marcus Ashworth is a financial markets writer, broadcaster and speaker with nearly four decades at the intersection of global markets and macroeconomics. He was a Bloomberg Opinion columnist from 2016 to 2026, leading EMEA financial markets coverage on a global remit — writing on central bank policy, sovereign debt, credit, FX and commodities, with work syndicated worldwide and appearing in the Washington Post, MoneyWeek and The Week.Before turning to writing, he spent decades on the trading floor and in senior markets roles: Chief Market Strategist and Head of Fixed Income at Execution Noble (later Espirito Santo and Haitong), where he was a Managing Director and Executive Committee member, and earlier roles across JP Morgan, SBC Warburg (now UBS), Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley and others, spanning London, Hong Kong and Tokyo. He read Economics at the University of Manchester.His expertise runs deepest on ECB, Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy, European sovereign debt and fixed income strategy.0:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE) First pints, first episode 0:49 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=49s) Is UK debt actually sustainable? 2:40 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=160s) Why servicing cost matters more than debt-to-GDP 3:39 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=219s) Gilt markets, hedge funds and the highest yields in the developed world 5:17 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=317s) Quantitative tightening: is the Bank making it worse? 8:31 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=511s) Should the Bank of England keep its independence? 11:15 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=675s) Inflation target: 2%, a band, or nominal GDP? 13:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=780s) A blunt instrument and the accountability problem 15:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=900s) The ONS, the OBR and too few markets people on the MPC 16:52 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1012s) Tax, wealth flight and the squeezed middle 18:56 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1136s) The Budget and the problem with long lead times 20:30 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1230s) Where does the power actually sit? 21:46 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1306s) Liz Truss, the mini-budget and the OBR pendulum 24:57 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1497s) Andy Burnham: the left's Boris? 28:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1728s) How do you sell a tax-raising budget? 29:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=1788s) Defence spending and Britain's real military strength 34:52 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2092s) Defence bonds, low-coupon gilts and smarter debt 37:33 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2253s) Welfare, tax thresholds and the student loan trap 40:03 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2403s) University, trades and AI's hit to graduate jobs 43:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2580s) Financial literacy and the data problem 45:39 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2739s) Flat tax, frozen allowances and the minimum wage 47:31 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=2851s) The triple lock and the welfare bill 51:20 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=3080s) Politics, the SDP and the case against devolution 54:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=3288s) Non-doms, housing and the broken social contract 57:49 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=3469s) Less government, done better 1:00:16 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=3616s) Markets: the yen, China and the carry trade 1:05:07 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=3907s) Bessent, Warsh and how to move a market 1:06:43 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=4003s) Is inflation still a threat? 1:08:27 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=4107s) Predictions for the 28 October Budget 1:11:43 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiTjxUtP7hE&t=4303s) The flat-tax finish

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Guest appearances

Books guests

Based on episode analysis; this does not confirm that the show is currently accepting guests.