Bianco Research L.L.C. has been a source of objective research and unique insights into financial markets for over 20 years. We combine cutting-edge analytics and a highly visual approach to provide clear, concise conclusions in a data driven market.
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research analyzes whether the current AI boom resembles the expansive 1996 market or the collapsing 2000 bubble.
9 Oct 2026TRANSCRIPT
Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on?
Host [Host Name] interviews [Guest Name] about the K-shaped economic recovery, exploring how rising prices impact different income levels and consumer spending.
2 Oct 2026TRANSCRIPT
Rational Dissent Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI
Host [Host Name] and guest [Guest Name] discuss three critical market risks: Europe's energy crisis, corporate credit distress, and Fed funding pressures.
25 Sept 2026TRANSCRIPT
Episode 010. Will the Bond Market End Humanity?
Host [Host Name] interviews [Guest Name] about whether the current bond market surge signals a return to normal or an impending break, offering insights into economic resilience and Fed policy.
18 Sept 2026TRANSCRIPT
Episode 009. Did the Fed Get it Right?
Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites, was it the right move?
Chapters
00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview
02:38 – Rising Bond Yields & Financial Conditions
08:02 – Structural Inflation & the Post-Pandemic Economy
24:10 – The 12–0 Vote & Threats to Fed Independence
29:10 – Eliminating Forward Guidance & Outro
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT091826
11 Sept 2026TRANSCRIPT
Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many?
Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once.
Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.png
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally
02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated
06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money"
13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets
16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying
23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities
31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT091126
4 Sept 2026
Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete?
A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in.
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction
01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates
05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers
12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives
16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields
20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations
24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return?
28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose
32:24 - Outro and Conclusion
28 Aug 2026
Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market?
In a regime where financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand?
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview
02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity
05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet
08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA)
12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears
21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk
24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes
32:26 - Outro
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082826
21 Aug 2026
Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping?
The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era.
Chapters
00:00 - Teaser & Introduction
01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week
03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury
08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix
11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation
20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit
29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082126
14 Aug 2026
Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market
Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels.
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium
03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates
13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits
17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection
28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education
33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT081426
7 Aug 2026
Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion
Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days?
Chapters
00:00 - Hot Open & Intro
00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse
03:54 - The Anthropic Effect
07:10 - Include Other Income
09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave
12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings
18:05 - Data Sources Diverge
22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble
26:05 - Vendor Financing History
29:15 - CapEx & Bubble Risks
37:10 - Lightning Round Fed or Earnings
38:53 - Wrap Up & Subscribe
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT080726
31 Jul 2026
Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed
Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.
Chapters
00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation
00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview
01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda
02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact
06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance
11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed
13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put
15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics
18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)
25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance
30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach
33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up
Charts Used:
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126
24 Jul 2026
Episode 001. Why Do Investors Expect So Much?
Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect?
Chapters
00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent
00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview
02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle
06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market
09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio
11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model
17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending
26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities
28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable
32:42 - Closing Remarks
Charts Used:
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/AIvsNonAICorrelation072426.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/CAPERatiovsReturns072426.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/456Markets072426.png
Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/
Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT072426
24 Jul 2026
Rational Dissent Introduction
Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.
Inside a recent episode
Episode 013. Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech
Published 16 Oct 2026 · Transcript excerpt
[…] And there were some tulips that cost as much as a really nice house. So, of course, that all corrected and that bubble popped. But that is a pretty clear example of where prices kind of just completely detached from not even underlying fundamentals because there is none for a tulip but even just like the utility of whatever it is you're trying to set a price on so more recently it'd be easy to point to both the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble and show that they shared many of the same characteristics so starting with the dot-com bubble this is just a steady run-up in prices throughout the 90s And it wasn't anything, you know, as fast of an appreciation in prices as tulip mania back in the 17th century. […]
Pod Engine is an independent podcast discovery and analytics service and is not affiliated with or endorsed by this podcast. Artwork and show content belong to their owners. Full legal notice.
Explore this show Podcast research with Pod Engine
