A podcast dedicated to the thrifty analysis of safety science, risk, systems, and performance research.
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Intro/Output "Dark Synth Wave" by ElephantGreen (PixaBay.com)
E104: Professor Robin Dillon-Merrill Part 1: Near Misses & Confusing Luck with Resilience
Do we routinely mistake good luck with systemic resilience – until something blows up?
Today I speak with Professor Robin Dillon-Merrill (Georgetown University, McDonough School of Business), who breaks down her 20+ years of research on decision-making under risk, outcome bias, and how organizations misinterpret near misses.
We discuss:
• The differences between resilient vs vulnerable near misses: How the perceived ‘margin of safety’ desensitizes organizations to risk when luck is the primary reason failure was averted.
• Managing outcome bias: Why leaders who experience lucky successes are possibly judged as more competent and promotable than those who face bad luck, even when their underlying decision quality is identical.
• Counterfactual thinking: How processes used by NASA facilitate teams to evaluate alternative outcomes and decouple decision quality from outcomes.
• Gathering info: Why decision makers consistently stop searching for critical warning signs long before they have sufficient data.
• Why ‘speaking up’ campaigns fail: Safety reporting programs may be ineffective for recognising an issue since the issue isn’t recognised as danger in the first place.
Resources & Links:Website & Articles: https://safetyinsights.orgSupport the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/benhutchinson
30 Sept 2026
E102: Does HOP Actually Work? Real Data From a 5-Year Study (Quickisode)
Does a Human & Organizational Performance (HOP) initiative improve learning and the quality of actions? And what happens when the initiative stops?This quickisode unpacks Christopher Mastrangelo’s 2026 Master’s thesis examining a multi-year HOP implementation at a large biopharmaceutical company. His project tracked operational data from 2020 through July 2025 across key metrics: a. deviation initiation ratesb. root cause classification practicesc. CAPA types, andd. cultural persistence after formal support was removed. The HOP initiative seemingly resulted in:a. A drop in quality deviationsb. A shift away from findings of 'human error' towards organisational improvementsc. Fixing systems rather than retraining peopleAnd what happens when the HOP initiative and key stakeholders are dissolved? After the dedicated HOP team was dissolved in mid-2024, formal training scores dropped, and 'human factors' classifications (e.g. focusing on people rather than the system) crept back in. But, frontline work execution and proactive learning mindsets persisted. Resources & Links:Website & Articles: https://safetyinsights.orgSupport the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/benhutchinson
27 Sept 2026
E101: Writing Better Safety Procedures Part 2: Rules vs Reality, WAI/WAD, Safety-II & Workarounds
In a 5-year petrochemical study examining over 1,400 work steps, 1/3 were performed differently from what was written in the procedure, but every task was completed successfully.Is this non-compliance or a display of worker aptitude and resilient skill?
In Part 2 of our series on procedures, we look beyond the "100% compliance" rhetoric and unpack the gap between work-as-imagined (WAI) and work-as-done (WAD).
We explore why workers adapt rules, how to categorise workarounds, and how to redesign safety procedures as resources for action rather than as tools for worker control.
We cover:
a. why procedures assume work is linear, predictable and controllable - and why real-world conditions constantly force adaptation
b. The RES framework which explores three drivers of procedural adaptation: Routine, Efficiency, and Safety
c. The difference between viewing procedures as top-down mandates (Model 1) vs localised, situated tools (Model 2)
d. The limits of compliance checks, and how 'pencil whipping' procedures fails to assure adequate rule following, and why procedure quality and safety climate may matter more
e. How airline pilots handle complex emergencies by drawing on fragments from checklists and SOPs rather than following linear scripts
f. The challenges of over-specification vs under-specification, and why cramming in more details forces workers into a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' trap
g. Using Scenario-Based Training (SBT) & Gary Klein’s ShadowBox approaches, and HPOG’s Walk-Through Talk-Through to build expertise & redesign work systems
Resources & Links:Website & Articles: https://safetyinsights.orgSupport the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/benhutchinson
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Apple Podcasts (US)
4.8 / 5
4 ratings
Spotify
4.9 / 5
19 ratings
Podcast Authority Score: 39 / 100
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Quality
65
Social presence
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YouTube
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Engagement
32
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