Sentinel Minutes

About Sentinel Minutes

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

Publisher

Sentinel Team

Category

news · technology

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

20 Mar 2025

Latest episode

12 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

92 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   12 Oct 2026

   ″🟡 Hundreds of mathematical solutions found by OpenAI, US and Russia reach diesel export deal, Houthis attack Saudi airport || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Alex

   Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI released hundreds of solutions for mathematical problems that were found by its AI systems. Anthropic released more details about rogue AI incidents. Will an internationally active financial institution experience an AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 1 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency before 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (17% to 68%) chance. Before 2028, will there be an incident carried out by one or more rogue AI agents that results in the deaths of at least 10 people or a total loss of at least 1 billion dollars? Forecasters think there's an 8.5% (0.3% to 50%) chance. Geopolitics: Trump announced a deal to buy diesel from Russia. The Houthis attacked an airport in Saudi Arabia. Will Russia meet the stated goal of delivering 1.8 million tons of diesel fuel to global markets by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 67% (45% to 80%) chance. Will total shipping traffic with transponders on in the Strait of Hormuz reach a 7-day moving average of at least 50 ships/day on any day before January 1, 2027? Forecasters think there's a [...] --- Outline: (00:23) Executive summary (02:33) Technology and artificial intelligence (07:02) Geopolitics (07:05) Middle East (09:31) Europe (12:08) Asia (12:50) United States (13:46) Latin America (13:59) Africa (15:02) Biorisk (16:40) Economy --- First published: October 12th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/hundreds-of-mathematical-solutions (https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/hundreds-of-mathematical-solutions?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration) --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration). --- Images from the article: (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xDLa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6977aaa3-d24a-4ed7-b1a8-e8fbfec12756_2048x726.png) Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts (https://pocketcasts.com/), or another podcast app.

2. 

   5 Oct 2026

   ″🟡 Open model reaches Mythos hacking level, Middle East crude oil flows nearly at pre-Iran-war levels, worker at a Russian plague lab in Siberia died || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

   Another Marine unit deploys to the Middle East, FTC investigates OpenAI Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI fired three safety researchers for allegedly sharing information with an outside AI safety organization. The FTC opened an investigation into multiple AI companies. Which company's model will have the highest score on Epoch's Capabilities Index at the end of 2026? Forecasters assign an aggregate 56% chance to Anthropic, 43% to OpenAI, 7.5% to Google DeepMind, 1.2% to SpaceXAI, 1.9% to another Western company, and 0.4% to a Chinese company. Will there be another publicly reported case of a Western frontier AI company having paused inference because of safety concerns with a model before 2027? Forecasters think there's a 49% (20% to 80%) chance. Geopolitics: The US is deploying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which has over 2K Marines, to the Middle East. Crude oil flows from the Middle East are nearly back to pre-Iran-war levels. The Iranian economy is increasingly tightly squeezed. Russia is now broadly targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before February 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 7.4% (5% to 23%) probability. [...] --- Outline: (00:24) Executive summary (02:47) Technology and artificial intelligence (08:50) Geopolitics (08:52) Middle East (11:26) Europe (12:53) Asia-Pacific (13:03) United States (15:00) Latin America (15:03) Africa (16:04) Biorisk (19:34) Economy --- First published: October 5th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/open-model-reaches-mythos-hacking (https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/open-model-reaches-mythos-hacking?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration) --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration). --- Images from the article: (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GR51!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff2ed7fd1-8fa1-47bc-b66d-71a2171d68f6_1280x1576.png) (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eE0E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F84c68be0-c24a-425b-bfe2-716a02b2baa2_1069x649.png) Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts (https://pocketcasts.com/), or another podcast app.

3. 

   28 Sept 2026

   ″🟡 OpenAI reveals more rogue AI agent incidents, US and China establish AI incident communication line, Trump rejects Iranian truce proposal || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Alex

   Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI discovered more rogue AI agent incidents, and Australia's government said that a rogue OpenAI agent breached or attempted to breach some of its government systems. The US and China agreed to establish an AI incident communication line. Before 2028, will a rogue AI swarm hack a national government system of any country, or a major bank or investment firm, and demand a ransom of 10 million dollars or more? Our forecasters think there's a 6.2% (0.5% to 24%) chance. Geopolitics: Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day pause in fighting. The main parties in the US continue to engage in disputes over election integrity ahead of the midterm elections. Will a constitutional quorum of the US House (218 out of 435 members) elect a Speaker, swear in a Speaker, and be sworn in en masse no later than January 10, 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 95% (70% to 99%) probability. If so, will at least 425 members be sworn in en masse once the Speaker is sworn in? Forecasters think there's a 98% (95% to 99%) chance. If so, will the Democratic Party control the House [...] --- Outline: (00:25) Executive summary (03:53) Technology and artificial intelligence (12:34) Geopolitics (12:37) Middle East (15:36) Europe (18:18) Asia-Pacific (19:23) United States (23:48) Latin America (24:23) Africa (25:33) Economy --- First published: September 28th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-reveals-more-rogue-ai-agent (https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-reveals-more-rogue-ai-agent?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration) --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration). --- Images from the article: (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E78d!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F136c084b-ff8b-475f-b040-f494f3bac682_1131x850.png) (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AGQD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffac04991-fc2e-473f-82d8-519d08fde4bc_1298x727.png) (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sa2V!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c08518a-3078-4020-9e85-bca8128a8437_2033x939.png) (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a9Aa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb345309f-722e-46a8-8210-de36148a0005_1664x890.png) Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts (https://pocketcasts.com/), or another podcast app.

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

Apple Podcasts (US)

5.0 / 5

1 ratings

Spotify

5.0 / 5

1 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 48 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

84

Social presence

0

YouTube

0

Engagement

32

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