Every year Jonathan and Douglas dust off their podcasting mics and sit down to predict the year ahead with uncanny accuracy. Just two guys.
So kick back and settle in for an enjoyable listen. Pro tip: listen to the most recent episode.
In this special year-end episode, Jonathan and Douglas look into the crystal ball for 2026 before facing the music on their 2025 calls. We’re shaking up the format this year: 2026 Big Bets come first, followed by the definitive marking of last year’s homework.
Part 1: The 2026 Predictions 🔮
We break down our high-conviction bets for the year ahead across five key pillars:
The Markets: Will the momentum continue, or are we due for a correction?
AI: Moving from "efficiency" to "autonomy" - what happens next?
Tech: The hardware and platforms set to dominate the next 12 months.
Society: Cultural shifts, the "proof of personhood" movement, and beyond.
Politics: Geopolitics, trade, and the evolving landscape of the Trump administration.
Part 2: Marking the 2025 Homework 📝
We revisit our 2025 predictions to see who actually came out on top. It was a year of "shadow wars" and "Trump bumps." Highlights include:
The Big Hits: We correctly called the "shadow war" on European subsea infrastructure and the rise of a new micromobility category - the "Enclosed Quadricycle".
The AI Shift: Our prediction on AI legal advice eroding prices hit home, with major platforms slashing costs by 60%.
Market Volatility: While we were directionally right on the "up and to the right" market, the "Liberation Day" tariff crash in April 2025 kept us from hitting our ambitious Dow and S&P targets.
Corporate Winners: Alphabet was a standout, soaring over 60% as Waymo moved toward independence with a $100B+ valuation.
The "Misses": From the Ukraine stalemate to the delayed launch of GTA 6 and the "iPhone Fold," we own up to where our timing was off.
Who won the 2025 crown, and who is doubling down for 2026? Tune in to find out!
24 Dec 2024
75. 2025 Predictions
Join Jonathan and Douglas on "Small Time Bets" as they share 24 predictions for 2025, reflecting on their 2024 track record and offering insights into the year ahead.
18 Dec 2023
74. 2024 Predictions
Jonathan and Douglas check in to see where their 2023 predictions landed; and then look ahead to very specific 2024 predictions covering tech, politics, markets and mashed peas.
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