STUMP - Death and Taxes

About STUMP - Death and Taxes

Meep (Mary Pat Campbell) talks about mortality trends and/or public finance issues, usually with a connection to current events. marypatcampbell.substack.com (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/s/stump-death-and-taxes?utm_medium=podcast)

Publisher

Mary Pat Campbell (aka Meep)

Category

government · science

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

21 Feb 2022

Latest episode

11 Jul 2026

Latest episodes

129 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   11 Jul 2026

   Political Incapacitation: Mitch McConnell and Historical Examples

   While the state of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s health (and potential “is he alive/dead?” Schrodinger’s cat-like situation) plays out right now, I look at the real issue: there is no way to deal with incapacitated members of Congress. I look at prior situations in the Senate itself, and then I do go off on some tangents: historical situations where leaders’ deaths were covered up and more recent situations where a bad health situation was allowed to linger before the plug was finally pulled. Episode Links and Text On Congressional Incapacitation 26 Mar 2020, Bipartisan Policy Center: What If a Member of Congress Is Severely Incapacitated and Cannot Perform the Duties of the Job? (https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/what-if-a-member-of-congress-is-severely-incapacitated-and-cannot-perform-the-duties-of-the-job/) (https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/what-if-a-member-of-congress-is-severely-incapacitated-and-cannot-perform-the-duties-of-the-job/) Presidential incapacitation, either anticipated and short term or unexpected and longer term, can be handled by a transfer of power to the Vice President under the procedures of the 25th amendment. But if a member of Congress becomes incapacitated, there is no legal avenue to replace that person. Recently, many in Congress have been trying to deal with the issue of members unable to come to Congress, either due to sickness or quarantine, or because hygiene recommendations or logistical issues makes showing up at Congress difficult or impossible. A separate issue, however, is what to do if a member is so sick or severely incapacitated that they could not perform the duties of the job (either remotely or in person). Congressional history is filled with examples of members who have had severe, debilitating illnesses. Senator Karl Mundt of North Dakota suffered a stroke and was absent from the Senate for the final three years of his term. Illness forced Senator Carter Glass of Virginia to be absent from the Senate for nearly two years. In the case of Glass, citizens of Virginia petitioned courts to remove Glass from his seat, as it was effectively vacant. The court refused to take action. Never has a sitting member of Congress been removed from office due to incapacitation. Karl Mundt U.S. Senate Biography (https://www.senate.gov/senators/FeaturedBios/Featured_Bio_MundtKarl.htm) From 1948 until his retirement in 1973, South Dakota (https://www.senate.gov/states/SD/intro.htm) senator Karl Mundt (http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=M001078) was known as a fierce opponent of communism. As a member—and eventually ranking member—of the Committee on Government Operations and its Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Mundt worked to expose communists in the government. In 1954 he chaired the Subcommittee on Investigations for the Army-McCarthy hearings (https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/investigations/mccarthy-hearings/have-you-no-sense-of-decency.htm), remaining loyal to Senator Joseph McCarthy (https://www.senate.gov/senators/FeaturedBios/Featured_Bio_McCarthy.htm). Mundt gained prominence with two major investigations into bribery allegations against officials at the Agriculture Department and the Pentagon. Mundt voted for cloture to end debate on the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/civil_rights/civil_rights.htm#civil_rights_Copy=intro) after striking a deal with Republican Leader Everett Dirksen (https://www.senate.gov/senators/FeaturedBios/Featured_Bio_Dirksen.htm). Mundt also became one of the leading conservationists in the Senate, which earned him an award from The World Wildlife Fund in 1969. After he suffered a debilitating stroke in 1969, Senate leaders took the unprecedented step of removing Mundt from his committee assignments. Wikipedia: Illness (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Mundt#Illness) On November 23, 1969, Mundt suffered a severe stroke (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stroke) and was subsequently unable to attend sessions of Congress, although he received extensive speech and physical therapy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_therapy). His wife, Mary, led his staff in Mundt's place and refused calls for the crippled Senator to resign. Mundt was stripped of his committee assignments by the Senate Republican Conference in 1972, but he remained in office through the end of his term on January 3, 1973.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Mundt#cite_note-3) He did not seek reelection in 1972, and was succeeded in the Senate by Democrat James G. Abourezk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._Abourezk). Carter Glass Wikipedia: Family, decline, death (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Glass#Family,_decline,_death) Carter Glass was a Methodist.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Glass#cite_note-18) When he was twenty-eight, Glass married Aurelia McDearmon Caldwell, a school teacher. They had four children. She died of a heart ailment in 1937.[19] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Glass#cite_note-19) Glass remarried in 1940 at the age of 82. His second wife, Mary Scott, was his constant companion as his health began to fail over the next few years. They lived at the Mayflower Hotel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayflower_Hotel) Apartments in Washington, D.C. Starting in 1942, Glass began suffering from various age-related illnesses and could not attend Senate meetings after that time. However, he refused to resign from the Senate, despite many requests that he do so, and even kept his committee chairmanship. Many visitors were also kept away from him by his wife.[20] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Glass#cite_note-20) A confidential 1943 analysis of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Foreign_Relations) by Isaiah Berlin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaiah_Berlin) for the British Foreign Office (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Office) stated that Glass[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Glass#cite_note-hachey1973-21) “...is very old and frail and something of a legend in the South. The fruit-growing interests of his State make him an opponent of the reciprocal trade pacts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reciprocal_trade_agreement), but on all other questions he has loyally supported the President’s anti-Isolationist policy. He cannot have many years of active service before him.” Glass died of congestive heart failure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congestive_heart_failure) in Washington, D.C., on May 28, 1946. He is interred at Spring Hill Cemetery in Lynchburg. His fellow sponsor of the Glass-Owen Act, Senator Robert Latham Owen (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Latham_Owen), lies nearby. Gemini Conversation and Excerpts Link to Gemini Conversation: https://share.gemini.google/i03cKVsS52d4 (https://share.gemini.google/i03cKVsS52d4) A few items: McConnell leadership positions he still retains: While the Constitution provides no clear mechanism to force an incapacitated senator to vacate their seat, committee assignments and chairmanships are governed separately by party rules and Senate resolutions. Though he stepped down as the Republican Leader in January 2025, McConnell still holds several significant positions in the 119th Congress (2025–2026). As of July 2026, he holds the following roles: Full and Joint Committees * Senate Committee on Rules and Administration (Chair) * Joint Committee on Printing (Chair) * Joint Committee on the Library (Vice Chair) Subcommittees * Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (Chair) — He also sits on the full Senate Appropriations Committee. * Agriculture Subcommittee on Food and Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics, and Research (Chair) — He also sits on the full Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee. Because committee business often relies on narrow party margins, his ongoing hospitalization is actively bottlenecking Senate operations. Without his vote, the Appropriations Committee is currently split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, which has stalled scheduled markups and temporarily blocked the advancement of defense spending bills for the 2027 fiscal year. Discussing a “25th Amendment” for Congress …. The Current Reality Without a new Constitutional Amendment, a sitting member’s seat only becomes officially vacant under three conditions: * Death * Voluntary Resignation * Expulsion (which has historically only been used for treason or severe criminal corruption, never for a medical crisis). Lawfare Because the Constitution gives each chamber the exclusive power to “be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members,” the Senate itself must recognize a vacancy before a state governor can act. If an incapacitated senator cannot resign, the Senate is effectively stuck at an impasse unless they are willing to attempt an unprecedented two-thirds expulsion vote. Me: Yes, I don't see any of the Senators, many of whom are aged themselves and may undergo extended hospitalization and return, voting for expulsion just due to medical incapacitation... which may also complicate any use of a Constitutional Amendment anyway. It seems it needs something where it comes from the state/constitutents Gemini: You’ve hit on the exact structural flaw in relying on the Senate to police itself. Expulsion was designed for treason or extreme corruption, not for a severe medical crisis. Because many senators are elderly and protective of their own institutional power, they have a vested interest in not setting a precedent of ejecting a colleague for health reasons. Because of that inherent conflict of interest, a Constitutional Amendment designed to address incapacity would likely need to bypass the chamber entirely and put the trigger in the hands of the state or its constituents. …. The Historical Hurdle The reason we don’t have these mechanisms now is that the Framers specifically debated—and rejected—giving states the power to recall federal representatives during the Constitutional Convention of 1787. They feared that if states could recall senators at will, the federal government would be too unstable and members would be beholden to local factions rather than the national interest. Overcoming that deeply ingrained constitutional history to pass a new amendment would be incredibly difficult, but as you pointed out, leaving the decision to the Senate almost guarantees inaction. Historical Examples of Hiding Deaths of Leaders Gemini Output (plus some links) — due to length, will not blockquote, but the below is output straight from Gemini. I will be dropping in links to other sources. Hiding the death of a leader is a surprisingly common historical strategy, usually executed by inner circles desperately trying to buy time to secure their own power, prevent a military collapse, or manipulate the line of succession. Here are three of the most audacious, and successful, cover-ups in history: 1. The Carts of Rotting Fish (China, 210 BCE) You likely heard about the death of Qin Shi Huang, the first emperor of a unified China (and the man buried with the Terracotta Army). He died suddenly while touring Eastern China, two months away from the capital. His Chancellor, Li Si, and the chief eunuch, Zhao Gao, panicked. They knew the Emperor’s capable eldest son, Fusu, favored a rival faction and would likely execute them upon taking the throne. They needed time to forge a fake imperial decree forcing Fusu to commit suicide and installing a younger, easily manipulated son instead. To hide the death during the long journey back to the capital, they kept the Emperor’s body inside his enclosed, shade-drawn carriage. They had meals delivered to the window, carried on loud one-sided conversations with the carriage, and issued forged documents from inside. However, it was the middle of summer, and the Emperor’s body began to rapidly decompose. To mask the overwhelming smell of a rotting monarch, Li Si ordered carts of salted, decomposing fish (abalone) to be hitched immediately in front of and behind the imperial carriage. 2. The Three-Year Shadow (Japan, 1573) Takeda Shingen, known as the “Tiger of Kai,” was one of the most brilliant and feared warlords of Japan’s Sengoku (Warring States) period. In 1573, while on a major military campaign against his rival Tokugawa Ieyasu, Shingen fell mortally ill. Knowing his clan was surrounded by aggressive enemies who would immediately invade if they knew he was dead, Shingen issued a stunning final command: his death was to be kept an absolute secret for three full years. His generals obliged. To pull off the deception, they utilized a kagemusha (a political body double). Shingen’s younger brother, Takeda Nobukado, bore a striking resemblance to the warlord and stepped into the role. For three years, the double attended military meetings, reviewed troops from a distance, and maintained the illusion that Shingen was alive. The ruse successfully held off rival warlords, who were too terrified of Shingen’s tactical genius to risk an attack. (This incredible cover-up later inspired Akira Kurosawa’s 1980 masterpiece film, Kagemusha). Kagemusha IMdB link (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080979/?ref_=mv_close) 3. The Secret in the Tent (Ottoman Empire, 1566) Suleiman the Magnificent died of natural causes in his royal tent during the brutal Siege of Szigetvár in Hungary. His Grand Vizier, Sokollu Mehmed Pasha, recognized a catastrophic problem: announcing the death of the empire’s greatest sultan would instantly shatter the morale of the besieging Ottoman army. Worse, Suleiman’s heir, Selim II, was 800 miles away in Anatolia. If the army found out the Sultan was dead, it would trigger a chaotic, violent succession crisis right in the middle of a warzone. For 48 days, the Grand Vizier kept the death an absolute secret. He had the Sultan secretly buried beneath the floorboards of his own tent. He forged military orders in the Sultan’s handwriting and severely restricted access to the royal quarters. To keep the troops convinced, he occasionally propped up a lookalike in the Sultan’s carriage to wave at the army from a distance in dim lighting. The ruse worked perfectly — the Ottomans won the siege, and the secret was only revealed once Selim was safely secured on the throne. Modern Political Incapacitations: Two Famous Examples I selected 2 of the 3 given to me by Gemini: Franco and Woodrow Wilson. You may find the third interesting, but it’s not in the podcast. 1. The Three-Year Secret (Ethiopia, 1913–1916) Emperor Menelik II, widely considered the founder of the modern Ethiopian state, suffered a series of severe strokes starting in 1906 and was entirely incapacitated by 1909. His teenage grandson, Lij Iyasu, was elevated to act as the de facto regent. When Menelik II finally died on December 12, 1913, Iyasu was terrified that formally announcing the death would trigger a massive succession war among the regional nobility. To secure his own grip on the throne, Iyasu strictly forbade anyone from mourning, locked down access to the palace, and kept the Emperor’s death an absolute state secret. The Ethiopian public was kept completely in the dark for nearly three years. The ruse only ended in September 1916, when a coalition of nobles overthrew Iyasu and finally announced that Menelik had been dead since 1913. 2. The “Life Support” Delay (Spain, 1975) As medical technology advanced, 20th-century inner circles realized they didn’t need to hide a corpse—they just needed to keep the heart beating artificially until the political timing was right. Francisco Franco, Spain’s military dictator, suffered severe gastrointestinal bleeding and fell into a coma on November 3, 1975. For weeks, his inner circle—led by his surgeon son-in-law—kept him artificially alive on life support machines. While historians still debate exactly who gave the final order, Franco was officially unplugged and declared dead on November 20. This date was almost certainly manipulated for propaganda purposes: November 20 was the exact anniversary of the 1936 execution of José Antonio Primo de Rivera, the revered founder of the Spanish fascist movement that had originally brought Franco to power. Wikipedia: Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalissimo_Francisco_Franco_is_still_dead) 3. The Ultimate Incapacitation Cover-Up (United States, 1919–1921) Tying back to your earlier questions about what happens when a U.S. official is incapacitated—while he didn’t actually die, the most consequential 20th-century cover-up was that of President Woodrow Wilson. In October 1919, Wilson suffered a massive stroke that left him paralyzed on his left side and partially blind. Rather than transferring power to the Vice President, his wife, Edith Wilson, and his physician, Dr. Cary Grayson, formed an impenetrable barrier around the President. For the final 17 months of his presidency, Edith acted as the sole gatekeeper. She reviewed all state papers, decided what the President would see, and effectively ran the executive branch by proxy, all while issuing statements that Wilson was merely suffering from “exhaustion.” They successfully hid the true, devastating severity of his condition from Congress, the press, and the public. This massive deception is precisely the historical nightmare that eventually pushed Congress to draft the 25th Amendment—specifically to ensure the executive branch could never be secretly run by an unelected proxy again. Development of the 25th Amendment As I mentioned in the podcast, Gemini was actually incorrect about Wilson’s situation being the direct impetus for the 25th Amendment, which wasn’t ratified until the 1960s. It does help to question the stuff the AI feeds back at you — it tries to make linkages that aren’t exactly correct. 10 Feb 2021, National Constitution Center: How a national tragedy led to the 25th amendment (https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/how-jfks-assassination-led-to-a-constitutional-amendment-2) It was on this day in 1967 that two states, Nevada and Minnesota, made the Constitution’s 25th Amendment a reality, clearing up questions about presidential succession that dated back to the Founders’ time. President John F. Kennedy’s death on November 22, 1963, led a united Congress to push for the key constitutional change. Kennedy’s assassination created moments of chaos in the federal government that afternoon. Vice President Lyndon Johnson was in the same motorcade as Kennedy, and there were early, erroneous reports that Johnson was also wounded. As the country came to grips with the assassination, Johnson made sure the moment when he took the oath of office, about two hours after Kennedy’s death, was documented, so the nation knew a constitutional change of office had taken place. Kennedy’s sudden passing accelerated an argument about a constitutional change that had been in the works in Congress in 1963. Technically, the Constitution never spelled out how a vice president would become president if a president died, resigned or was unable to perform the office’s duty. This oversight became apparent in 1841, when the newly elected President, William Henry Harrison, died about a month after becoming President. Vice President John Tyler, in a bold move, settled the political debate about succession. There was a question in Congress about what powers Tyler had and what he should be called (Acting President, President or Vice President). Tyler settled the debate by asking the Chief Judge of the District of Columbia Circuit to administer the presidential oath, and he fought all attempts by his many political foes to treat him as anything but the legitimate President of the United States. In the following years, presidential successions happened after the deaths of six presidents, and there were two cases where the offices of president and vice president almost became vacant at the same time. The “Tyler Precedent” stood fast in these transition periods. Furthermore, there was no constitutional way to replace a vice president who had vacated office or to handle a situation where a president became incapacitated while in office. By 1963, Congress was debating an attempt to amend the Constitution to clear up all succession matters and add a procedure for dealing with a leader who became unable to perform the office’s duties temporarily or permanently. This became a bigger issue with the realities of the Cold War and with President Dwight Eisenhower’s illnesses in the 1950s. The influential Senator Estes Kefauver had started the amendment effort during the Eisenhower era, after it was proposed by the American Bar Association, and he renewed it in 1963. Kefauver died in August 1963 after suffering a heart attack on the Senate floor. With Kennedy’s unexpected death, the need for a clear way to determine presidential succession, especially with the new reality of the Cold War and its frightening technologies, forced Congress into action. The 25th Amendment was more about multiple succession issues more than incapacity, in terms of getting it passed. Mitch McConnell Coverage This is elsewhere, not really in this episode. * 8 July 2026, The Cut: What’s Going on With Mitch McConnell? (https://www.thecut.com/article/whats-going-on-mitch-mcconnell-cardiac-arrest-brain-dead-rumor.html) * 10 July 2026, Intelligencer: New Mitch McConnell Ambulance Video Adds to Health Mystery (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/mitch-mcconnell-ambulance-stretcher-video-health-update.html) * 10 July 2026, CNN: McConnell was loaded into ambulance on a stretcher, according to eyewitness and new video (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/10/politics/mitch-mcconnell-video-stretcher-ambulance) * 10 July 2026, USA Today: Elaine Chao, wife of Mitch McConnell, issues statement after US return (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/10/elaine-chao-comments-on-mitch-mcconnells-hospitalization/90876522007/) * 11 July 2026, WHAS11: ‘Tell us what’s going on’ | Andy Beshear, Scott Jennings strike similar tone on Mitch McConnell (https://www.whas11.com/article/news/politics/national-politics/scott-jennings-andy-beshear-mcconnell-update-public-health/417-aa73dd8c-2f9b-450b-9d93-f0000d6797c1) Related Links * 30 Jun 2026: Congressional Morbidity and Mortality Watch: A Quickie Update (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/congressional-morbidity-and-mortality) - the first time hearing about McConnell’s hospitalization * Feb 2026: Political Mortality: Rahm Emanuel Says There Should Be a Mandatory 75-Year-Old Retirement Age for Key Federal Roles (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/political-mortality-rahm-emanuel) * 9 Jan 2026: Congressional Mortality 2026 Update: More Consequences (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/congressional-mortality-2026-update) * 25 May 2025: Political Mortality Update: Yes, A THIRD Democratic Representative Died in 2025 (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/political-mortality-update-yes-a) * 10 Apr 2025: Congressional Mortality Has Consequences (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/congressional-mortality-has-consequences) * 25 Jan 2025: 2025 Update on Senate Demographics (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/2025-update-on-senate-demographics) * Sep 2023: Politicians: Don’t Tempt the Reaper (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/politicians-dont-tempt-the-reaper) * Feb 2023: Senate Mortality 2023: Top Ten Old Senators (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/senate-mortality-2023-top-ten-old) * April 2022: All Men Must Die, But They Don’t Have to Die in Office (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/all-men-must-die-but-they-dont-have) * May 2023: A Sampling of Political Mortality (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/a-sampling-of-political-mortality) STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

2. 

   30 Apr 2026

   April Awareness: Autism, Cancer, Finance, and Poetry

   April is the cruelest month in dropping all sorts of awareness topics on our heads: Autism, Cancer (various types - I covered testicular cancer earlier this month), financial literacy, and poetry… suppose we become “aware” of all this? What are we supposed to do with all this awareness and knowledge? Episode Links Poems T.S. Eliot, (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/47311/the-waste-land)The Waste Land (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/47311/the-waste-land) I. The Burial of the Dead April is the cruellest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain. The Poetry Foundation, Poem Guide by Tyler Malone: (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/articles/158847/ts-eliot-the-waste-land)The Waste Land (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/articles/158847/ts-eliot-the-waste-land) The initial declaration of The Waste Land—“April is the cruellest month”—is clear enough in meaning, even if it defies readers’ expectations. The opening is a subversion of the first lines of the General Prologue (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43926/the-canterbury-tales-general-prologue) of Geoffrey Chaucer (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/geoffrey-chaucer)’s The Canterbury Tales. General Prologue of Chaucer’s (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43926/the-canterbury-tales-general-prologue)The Canterbury Tales (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43926/the-canterbury-tales-general-prologue) Whan that Aprille with his shoures soote, The droghte of March hath perced to the roote, And bathed every veyne in swich licóur Of which vertú engendred is the flour; Whan Zephirus eek with his swete breeth Inspired hath in every holt and heeth The tendre croppes, and the yonge sonne Hath in the Ram his halfe cours y-ronne, And smale foweles maken melodye, That slepen al the nyght with open ye, So priketh hem Natúre in hir corages, Thanne longen folk to goon on pilgrimages, And palmeres for to seken straunge strondes, To ferne halwes, kowthe in sondry londes; And specially, from every shires ende Of Engelond, to Caunterbury they wende, The hooly blisful martir for to seke, That hem hath holpen whan that they were seeke. Translation of first 18 lines of the General Prologue, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Prologue#Translation) Walt Whitman, When Lilacs Last in the Dooryard Bloom’d (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45480/when-lilacs-last-in-the-dooryard-bloomd) 1 When lilacs last in the dooryard bloom’d, And the great star early droop’d in the western sky in the night, I mourn’d, and yet shall mourn with ever-returning spring. Ever-returning spring, trinity sure to me you bring, Lilac blooming perennial and drooping star in the west, And thought of him I love. Autism Awareness Livejournal posts April 2026: Autism Awareness Month, April 2026 (https://meep.livejournal.com/2216546.html) April 2011: Autism Awareness Month and Diarmuid (https://meep.livejournal.com/1887604.html) Oct 2009: I come to praise the Fred S. Keller school (https://meep.livejournal.com/1838232.html) Sept 2009: Breakthrough! (https://meep.livejournal.com/1836462.html) Aug 2009: Profile of the founder of D’s school, and a few details (https://meep.livejournal.com/1830714.html) STUMP posts Mar 2014: Can Disney Films Teach Social Skills? (https://stump.marypat.org/article/24/can-disney-films-teach-social-skills) - the sole post by my late husband Stu Just as no two people are alike, the son in the article, Owen, and our son, D., are different in their disabilities. D. had no language loss — because he didn’t have language skills to lose. He spoke rarely but always sang songs he loved. D. didn’t withdraw from the world and has always been loving, cuddly and interested in any adult who gives him attention. I can go on but let’s focus on a commonality between the two. They love videos. Apr 2025: Aunt Betsey & Mr. Dick — from David Copperfield [Dec 2019] Mar 2021: (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/cuomo-killing-the-disabled-and-the)Cuomo Killing the Disabled and the Elderly: This Time It’s Personal (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/cuomo-killing-the-disabled-and-the) Cancer The National Cancer Institute’s latest official SEER statistics — based on the November 2025 data submission (covering diagnoses through 2023) and publicly released in April 2026 via SEER*Explorer — confirm what many in insurance and benefits have sensed: early-onset cancers among adults under 50 are accelerating, even as overall age-adjusted cancer rates remain relatively stable with only a modest recent uptick. Other Awareness April: Financial Literacy Month April 2026 Financial Literacy Month Resources (https://www.mymoney.gov/april-2026-financial-literacy-month-resources) at MyMoney.gov Resources at Council for Economic Education (https://www.councilforeconed.org/financial-literacy-month/) Dec 2024: An Actual Murderer Among the Recently Commuted by Biden (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/an-actual-murderer-among-the-recently) (a murderer involved with life insurance fraud) May 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t sell insurance to the Mafia (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/dont-sell-insurance-to-the-mafia) May 2022: Podcast episode - Fraudulent Life Insurers (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/fraudulent-life-insurers) Jun 2024: Podcast episode — Fraud and Embezzlement! How to Prevent and Detect (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/fraud-and-embezzlement-how-to-prevent) Dec 2024: Revisiting Fraud & Embezzlement Episode: Rita Crundwell and Biden Commutation (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/revisiting-fraud-and-embezzlement) May 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t perpetrate financial fraud in spreadsheets (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/dont-perpetrate-financial-fraud-in) Nov 2022: Podcast episode — FTX, Dickens, and Business Fraud (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/ftx-dickens-and-business-fraud) STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

3. 

   1 Apr 2026

   Problem Gambling: Addicts, Lotteries, Sports, and Pensions

   March is Problem Gambling Awareness Month (were you aware?) — and many people are becoming aware of an increasing problem with all sorts of gambling and betting being available 24/7, in easy reach, on our phones. People wrestling with gambling debts and gambling addiction are not a new phenomenon, as these have featured as major items in literature (which I mention)… and unfortunately, too many politicians have pointed to people’s attraction to gambling via lotteries in supposedly helping to fund governmental functions. Episode Links National Council on Problem Gambling FAQs: What is Problem Gambling? (https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/faqs-what-is-problem-gambling/) What is problem gambling? Problem gambling (sometimes referred to as “gambling addiction” or “gambling disorder”) is gambling behavior that is damaging to a person or their family, often disrupting their daily life and career. Anyone who gambles can be at-risk for developing a gambling problem. Gambling disorder is a recognized mental health diagnosis. Some warning signs of a gambling problem are: * Thinking about gambling all the time. * Feeling the need to bet more money and more often. * Going back to try to win your money back (“chasing losses”). * Feeling restless or irritable when trying to stop or cut down. * Feeling like you can’t control yourself. * Gambling despite negative consequences. * In extreme cases, problem gambling can cause bankruptcy, legal problems, losing your job or your family, and thinking about suicide. For more information on the American Psychiatric Association’s criteria for gambling addiction, visit DSM 5 at www.psych.org (http://www.psych.org/). Problem Gambling Awareness Month (PGAM) (https://www.ncpgambling.org/problem-gambling/pgam/) Problem Gambling Awareness Month is a nationwide grassroots campaign, held annually in March, that seeks to increase public awareness of problem gambling and promote prevention, treatment, and recovery services. PGAM Goals * To increase public awareness of problem gambling and the availability of prevention, treatment and recovery services. * To encourage healthcare providers to screen clients for problem gambling. Literary Gambling The Old Curiosity Shop by Dickens (https://gutenberg.org/files/700/700-h/700-h.htm) at Project Gutenberg Chapter 29 excerpt to Chapter 30: The child sat by, and watched its progress with a troubled mind. Regardless of the run of luck, and mindful only of the desperate passion which had its hold upon her grandfather, losses and gains were to her alike. Exulting in some brief triumph, or cast down by a defeat, there he sat so wild and restless, so feverishly and intensely anxious, so terribly eager, so ravenous for the paltry stakes, that she could have almost better borne to see him dead. And yet she was the innocent cause of all this torture, and he, gambling with such a savage thirst for gain as the most insatiable gambler never felt, had not one selfish thought! On the contrary, the other three—knaves and gamesters by their trade—while intent upon their game, were yet as cool and quiet as if every virtue had been centered in their breasts. Sometimes one would look up to smile to another, or to snuff the feeble candle, or to glance at the lightning as it shot through the open window and fluttering curtain, or to listen to some louder peal of thunder than the rest, with a kind of momentary impatience, as if it put him out; but there they sat, with a calm indifference to everything but their cards, perfect philosophers in appearance, and with no greater show of passion or excitement than if they had been made of stone. The storm had raged for full three hours; the lightning had grown fainter and less frequent; the thunder, from seeming to roll and break above their heads, had gradually died away into a deep hoarse distance; and still the game went on, and still the anxious child was quite forgotten. CHAPTER 30 At length the play came to an end, and Mr Isaac List rose the only winner. Mat and the landlord bore their losses with professional fortitude. Isaac pocketed his gains with the air of a man who had quite made up his mind to win, all along, and was neither surprised nor pleased. Nell’s little purse was exhausted; but although it lay empty by his side, and the other players had now risen from the table, the old man sat poring over the cards, dealing them as they had been dealt before, and turning up the different hands to see what each man would have held if they had still been playing. He was quite absorbed in this occupation, when the child drew near and laid her hand upon his shoulder, telling him it was near midnight. ‘See the curse of poverty, Nell,’ he said, pointing to the packs he had spread out upon the table. ‘If I could have gone on a little longer, only a little longer, the luck would have turned on my side. Yes, it’s as plain as the marks upon the cards. See here—and there—and here again.’ ‘Put them away,’ urged the child. ‘Try to forget them.’ ‘Try to forget them!’ he rejoined, raising his haggard face to hers, and regarding her with an incredulous stare. ‘To forget them! How are we ever to grow rich if I forget them?’ The child could only shake her head. ‘No, no, Nell,’ said the old man, patting her cheek; ‘they must not be forgotten. We must make amends for this as soon as we can. Patience—patience, and we’ll right thee yet, I promise thee. Lose to-day, win to-morrow. And nothing can be won without anxiety and care—nothing. Come, I am ready.’ ‘Do you know what the time is?’ said Mr Groves, who was smoking with his friends. ‘Past twelve o’clock—’ ‘—And a rainy night,’ added the stout man. ‘The Valiant Soldier, by James Groves. Good beds. Cheap entertainment for man and beast,’ said Mr Groves, quoting his sign-board. ‘Half-past twelve o’clock.’ ‘It’s very late,’ said the uneasy child. ‘I wish we had gone before. What will they think of us! It will be two o’clock by the time we get back. What would it cost, sir, if we stopped here?’ ‘Two good beds, one-and-sixpence; supper and beer one shilling; total two shillings and sixpence,’ replied the Valiant Soldier. Now, Nell had still the piece of gold sewn in her dress; and when she came to consider the lateness of the hour, and the somnolent habits of Mrs Jarley, and to imagine the state of consternation in which they would certainly throw that good lady by knocking her up in the middle of the night—and when she reflected, on the other hand, that if they remained where they were, and rose early in the morning, they might get back before she awoke, and could plead the violence of the storm by which they had been overtaken, as a good apology for their absence—she decided, after a great deal of hesitation, to remain. She therefore took her grandfather aside, and telling him that she had still enough left to defray the cost of their lodging, proposed that they should stay there for the night. ‘If I had had but that money before—If I had only known of it a few minutes ago!’ muttered the old man. ‘We will decide to stop here if you please,’ said Nell, turning hastily to the landlord. ‘I think that’s prudent,’ returned Mr Groves. ‘You shall have your suppers directly.’ Accordingly, when Mr Groves had smoked his pipe out, knocked out the ashes, and placed it carefully in a corner of the fire-place, with the bowl downwards, he brought in the bread and cheese, and beer, with many high encomiums upon their excellence, and bade his guests fall to, and make themselves at home. Nell and her grandfather ate sparingly, for both were occupied with their own reflections; the other gentlemen, for whose constitutions beer was too weak and tame a liquid, consoled themselves with spirits and tobacco. As they would leave the house very early in the morning, the child was anxious to pay for their entertainment before they retired to bed. But as she felt the necessity of concealing her little hoard from her grandfather, and had to change the piece of gold, she took it secretly from its place of concealment, and embraced an opportunity of following the landlord when he went out of the room, and tendered it to him in the little bar. What next happens: Little Nell gets her coin changed in a separate room, trying to conceal the money from her grandfather and the card sharps, but after she falls asleep, somebody comes into her room and steals the money she has hidden underneath her pillow….she thinks it may have been one of the card sharps, and maybe they will attack her grandfather, so she goes to check…. The idea flashed suddenly upon her—what if it entered there, and had a design upon the old man’s life! She turned faint and sick. It did. It went in. There was a light inside. The figure was now within the chamber, and she, still dumb—quite dumb, and almost senseless—stood looking on. The door was partly open. Not knowing what she meant to do, but meaning to preserve him or be killed herself, she staggered forward and looked in. What sight was that which met her view! The bed had not been lain on, but was smooth and empty. And at a table sat the old man himself; the only living creature there; his white face pinched and sharpened by the greediness which made his eyes unnaturally bright—counting the money of which his hands had robbed her. The Gambler by Dostoevsky (https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2197/pg2197-images.html) at Project Gutenberg Wikipedia article on The Gambler (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)) Dostoevsky gambled for the first time at the tables at Wiesbaden (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiesbaden) in 1863.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-Jones1992_Intro-2) From that time till 1871, when his passion for gambling subsided, he played at Baden-Baden (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-Baden), Homburg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homburg_vor_der_H%C3%B6he), and Saxon-les-Bains (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxon,_Switzerland) frequently, often beginning by winning a small amount of money and losing far more in the end.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-Jones1992_Intro-2) He first mentions his interest in gambling in a letter he sent to his first wife’s sister on 1 September 1863 describing his initial success:[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-3) Please do not think that, in my joy over not having lost, I am showing off by saying that I possess the secret of how to win instead of losing. I really do know the secret — it is terribly silly and simple, merely a matter of keeping oneself under constant control and never getting excited, no matter how the game shifts. That’s all there is to it — you just can’t lose that way and are sure to win. Within a week he lost his winnings and was forced to beg his family for money. He wrote to his brother Mikhail on 8 September 1863:[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-Jones1992_Intro-2) And I believed in my system ... within a quarter of an hour I won 600 francs. This whetted my appetite. Suddenly I started to lose, couldn’t control myself and lost everything. After that I ... took my last money, and went to play ... I was carried away by this unusual good fortune and I risked all 35 napoleons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napol%C3%A9on_(coin)) and lost them all. I had 6 napoleons d’or left to pay the landlady and for the journey. In Geneva (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva) I pawned my watch. Dostoevsky then agreed to a hazardous contract with F. T. Stellovsky that if he did not deliver a novel of 12 or more signatures (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signature_mark) by 1 November 1866, Stellovsky would acquire the right to publish Dostoevsky’s works for nine years, until 1 November 1875, without any compensation to the writer.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-Jones1992_Intro-2)[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gambler_(novel)#cite_note-introidiot-4) Pensions and Lotteries May 2017: Stupid Pension Trick: Let’s Use Lottery Money! (https://stump.marypat.org/article/734/stupid-pension-trick-let-s-use-lottery-money) This stupid trick comes courtesy New Jersey, which has been chock full of stupid pension tricks for years. They’ve issued billions in pension obligation bonds. (http://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-a-financial-tool-governments-should-use-with-caution.html) They’ve gone chasing returns alternative assets (http://stump.marypat.org/article/110/public-pensions-watch-alternative-asset-classes-pt-2-of-many-new-jersey) to try to make up for undercontributions. (http://stump.marypat.org/article/392/on-alternative-assets-and-pensions-multiple-stories-in-new-jersey) So now… what? LET’S MONETIZE THE LOTTERY! Here’s an explainer: (http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/here_are_the_details_on_christies_lottery-pension.html#incart_river_home) What you need to know about Christie plan to slash N.J. pension debt with lottery cash Gov. Chris Christie’s administration on Thursday released long-awaited details of its proposal to use state lottery proceeds to boost the government worker pension fund. In a briefing with reporters, the state treasurer emphasized the impact of the proposal, saying it said would take some of the burden off the state budget to come up with more and more money each year and will do more for improve the shaky pension fund than merely contributing the full amount recommended by actuaries. The strategy is to inject a $13.5 billion asset into the pension fund and give it a guaranteed source of revenue for the next 30 years. …. …. Yeah, so they’re going to take away the money from the lottery to spend on the pensions, and magically that’s going to make more money available for the things the lottery money is being spent on now. FWIW, I saw people talking about this nifty idea back in April, and thought it dumb then. May 2017: Geeking Out: How Dependable are Lottery Revenues? And Government Data Sources? (https://stump.marypat.org/article/733/geeking-out-how-dependable-are-lottery-revenues-and-government-data-sources) So I have a question: when they valued the lottery as an “asset” for the pension plan, did they assume that it would always keep growing? Linearly? Exponentially (same as constant % per year)? I’m going to guess they didn’t fit a cubic. There are a few other projections that may also make sense, assuming saturation of the lottery demand — cubic doesn’t really work, but something like a logistic function would probably be good. (http://wmueller.com/precalculus/families/1_80.html) (The reason I used exponential and cubic was because they’re built into Excel. I’m not going to do a huge amount of work here.) June 2020: STUMP Classics: How Reliable Are Lottery Revenues? (https://stump.marypat.org/article/1394/stump-classics-how-reliable-are-lottery-revenues) Updated New Jersey lottery proceeds In the old post seen above, NJ lottery proceeds had been moribund for a few years, which hit its growth rate. New York, on the other hand, had steady growth. Well, this is what NJ lottery proceeds did once we add on three more years of experience: Here are the 26-year growth rates for the states: As before, New Jersey is well below the national trend. But my main point is that proceeds from the lottery have been very variable for New Jersey, though that’s not true of the U.S. overall. Treating their state lottery as a reliable asset to fund their pensions was a foolish decision. Sports Betting 26 Dec 2025, Front Office Sports: 2025 Was the Year of Sports Gambling Scandals (https://frontofficesports.com/2025-was-the-year-of-sports-gambling-scandals/) Sports betting has expanded rapidly since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal prohibition on sports betting more than seven years ago, but this year exposed vulnerabilities in the system with explosive scandals across professional and college sports. Americans have bet “well north of” $500 billion since the 2018 Supreme Court decision, according to Legal Sports Report (https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting-states/revenue/). Currently, 39 states and Washington, D.C. allow some form of sports betting. There have been prior controversies—like the saga with (https://frontofficesports.com/ohtani-theft-interpreter/) Shohei Ohtani’s former translator and the lifetime ban (https://frontofficesports.com/jontay-porter-gambling-lifetime-ban/) of NBA role player Jontay Porter—but 2025 was the year major scandals kept exploding. 23 Oct 2025, ESPN: Suspensions, arrests and lifetime bans: A timeline of sports betting scandals since the repeal of PASPA (https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39908218/a-line-sports-gambling-scandals-2018) On May 14, 2018, just after 10 a.m. ET, the United States Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992, the federal statute that had restricted legal betting to primarily Nevada for 26 years. It was a landmark decision for two of America’s favorite pastimes: sports and gambling. States wasted little time launching -- and taxing -- legal sports betting markets, and professional leagues quickly formed partnerships with the bookmaking companies that would be taking bets on the games. Six years later, 39 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico have legal betting markets, and bettors have already wagered more the $330 billion with the new state-sponsored sportsbooks. But as the betting has increased, so have the controversies that come from gambling. In the past two years, dozens of professional and collegiate athletes and coaches have been suspended or fired for gambling violations, and at least one bettor has pleaded guilty to obstruction charges related to a college baseball betting scandal. In early 2024, a pair of investigations were launched involving suspicious betting on Temple men’s basketball and on prop wagers involving Toronto Raptors (https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/tor/toronto-raptors) reserve center Jontay Porter (https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4278103/jontay-porter). The NBA banned Porter for life (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39962406/nba-bans-raptors-jontay-porter-gambling-violations) after its investigation revealed he had disclosed confidential information to bettors, limited his participation in at least one game while he was with Raptors and bet on NBA games while playing in the G League. STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

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