Telltales

About Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com (https://telltales.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast)

Publisher

by Top Mark Capital

Category

business · business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

5 May 2021

Latest episode

11 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

313 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   11 Oct 2026

   Weekend Update - W2641

   ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → (https://telltales.topmarkcapital.com/w2641/) The Tape — W2641 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-09.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief The Cashflow Memo Starbucks, Chipotle, and Two Permian Gas Deals A report that Starbucks explored a takeover of Chipotle, two Permian natural gas deals, and Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 8 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2642. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:40 | Theme: Starbucks and Chipotle * 2:30 | Deep dive: Permian gas (Energy Transfer, ONEOK) * 4:45 | Rapid-fire: Uber, Broadcom, UnitedHealth, the earnings calendar * 7:20 | Close * 7:40 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: a report that Starbucks has explored a takeover of Chipotle, Energy Transfer’s and ONEOK’s Permian gas deals, Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater, and next week’s earnings calendar. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme — Starbucks and Chipotle Ava: Page 16 of the memo carries Starbucks and Chipotle. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Starbucks has worked with advisers in recent months on a takeover proposal for Chipotle[^ft-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Nation’s Restaurant News reported that the FT described the plans as early stage[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Axios reported that it was not clear whether an offer had been made[^axios-cmg-20261008]. Ava: Chipotle shares closed up about 6% on Thursday, after trading as much as 8.5% higher[^px-nasdaq-20261008]. Axios reported that Chipotle’s market value was above $41 billion that afternoon[^axios-cmg-20261008]. Starbucks shares fell nearly 7% during the session and closed down less than half a percent[^px-nasdaq-20261008]. Ava: Starbucks chief executive Brian Niccol was chief executive of Chipotle before he left for Starbucks in 2024[^axios-cmg-20261008]. On October 6, before the FT report, Semafor wrote that it had reported Chipotle had tapped bankers to fend off a potential takeover, and that people close to the company said Chipotle had not received a takeover bid[^semafor-cmg-20261006]. Ava: A Starbucks spokesperson responded to the FT report on Thursday, per Nation’s Restaurant News. Starbucks spokesperson (quoted): As a matter of policy, we don’t comment on rumors and speculation. Our team is laser-focused on executing our Back to Starbucks strategy.[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008] Ava: The spokesperson added that Starbucks will give fiscal 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Per the company, Starbucks reports those results after the close on Thursday, October 29[^pr-sbux-q4date-20261008]. Deep dive — Permian gas Ava: On page 10 of the memo, Energy Transfer and ONEOK. Both disclosed Permian Basin natural gas deals on October 6. Ava: Energy Transfer announced an agreement to acquire Vaquero Midstream, in a transaction the company valued at about $2.6 billion[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Per the release, the consideration is nearly $2 billion in cash and about 33 million newly issued Energy Transfer common units[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Per the release, Vaquero operates about 300 miles of pipeline in the southern Delaware Basin of Texas, and three processing plants with about 675 million cubic feet a day of capacity[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Vaquero owns enough acreage for two more plants, which the release says could raise capacity to about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Energy Transfer said Vaquero’s cash flows are supported by about 100,000 dedicated acres, and by customer contracts with an average remaining life of about 10 years[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. The company expects the deal to close in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: The same day, ONEOK said it completed its purchase of Brazos Midstream’s natural gas gathering and processing assets in the Midland Basin, also in the Permian, for about $4.4 billion in cash[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. Ava: Per ONEOK’s release, the deal more than doubles its Midland Basin processing capacity, to about 2.3 billion cubic feet a day, a figure that includes plants under construction[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. The assets carry about 600,000 dedicated acres under long-term fixed-fee contracts, with a weighted average remaining term of more than 12 years[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. Ava: ONEOK reports third-quarter results after the close on October 27, per the company[^pr-oke-q3date-20261005]. Rapid-fire Ava: Uber said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy ezCater, a platform for catering and workplace meals, in an all-cash transaction valued at $2.3 billion[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber said the deal is expected to close in the coming months, subject to regulatory approvals[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Ava: Per Uber, ezCater generated more than $2.5 billion of gross bookings over the trailing 12 months, and its average order values are above $400[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber holds its third-quarter call on Wednesday, November 4, per the company[^pr-uber-q3date-20261005]. Ava: Broadcom. Bloomberg reported on October 7 that Broadcom has held early discussions to arrange financing to help OpenAI buy the custom AI chips the two companies are developing[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Per Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom is arranging more than $50 billion of financing for the chips[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Bloomberg, citing one person, reported that no formal process has begun, and that early talks indicate the two companies could seek to raise around $30 billion of debt[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Ava: Bloomberg also reported that the $60 billion debt financing tied to Anthropic has launched[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Last week’s Weekend Update covered Bloomberg’s October 2 report on that package[^ep-w2640]. Ava: UnitedHealth. On October 5, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation of UnitedHealth over alleged deceptive and unlawful practices that, per his office, have denied Texans access to medically necessary care[^tx-ag-unh-20261005]. His office said it has issued civil investigative demands to UnitedHealth to collect evidence of potential violations of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act and other Texas laws[^tx-ag-unh-20261005]. Ava: The earnings calendar for next week. On Tuesday, October 13: Goldman Sachs[^earn-gs], JPMorgan[^earn-jpm] and UnitedHealth[^earn-unh]. On Wednesday, October 14: ASML[^earn-asml], Morgan Stanley[^earn-ms] and Fastenal[^earn-fast]. Ava: On Thursday, October 15: Interactive Brokers[^earn-ibkr] and Taiwan Semiconductor[^earn-tsm]. Per its 6-K, Taiwan Semiconductor’s September revenue was about NT$512 billion, up about 55% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August[^6k-tsm-sep-20261008]. Ava: Netflix reports the following Tuesday, October 20[^earn-nflx]. Close Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2642. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack. Disclaimer Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned. Sources * Bloomberg. (2026, October 7). Broadcom holds early talks about financing for OpenAI chips. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/broadcom-plans-50-billion-financing-for-openai-chips-wsj-says * Bomey, N. (2026, October 8). Chipotle shares jump on report of Starbucks takeover interest. Axios. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/chipotle-starbucks-stock-brian-niccol * Energy Transfer LP. (2026, October 6). Energy Transfer to acquire Vaquero Midstream in a $2.625 billion transaction [Press release]. https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-acquire-vaquero-midstream-2625-billion/ * Fontanella-Khan, J., Massoudi, A., Barnes, O., & Meyer, G. (2026, October 8). Starbucks has explored takeover of Chipotle in restaurant megadeal. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/79cef26a-e5e9-41d0-9af2-876dc23a9a7d (archived at https://archive.ph/kVltd) * Nasdaq. (2026, October 10). Historical quotes: CMG and SBUX, October 7-8, 2026 [Data set]. https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CMG/historical?assetclass=stocks&fromdate=2026-10-05&todate=2026-10-10 ; https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SBUX/historical?assetclass=stocks&fromdate=2026-10-05&todate=2026-10-10 * Nation’s Restaurant News. (2026, October 8). Starbucks is reportedly eyeing a Chipotle acquisition. Nation’s Restaurant News. https://www.nrn.com/mergers-acquisitions/starbucks-is-reportedly-eyeing-a-chipotle-acquisition * Office of the Texas Attorney General. (2026, October 5). Attorney General Ken Paxton investigates UnitedHealth Group for denying patients the coverage they need and engaging in deceptive practices [Press release]. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-investigates-unitedhealth-group-denying-patients-coverage-they-need-and * ONEOK, Inc. (2026, October 5). ONEOK schedules third-quarter 2026 conference call and webcast [Press release]. https://ir.oneok.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2026/10-05-2026-211539112 * ONEOK, Inc. (2026, October 6). ONEOK completes acquisition of Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin assets [Press release]. https://ir.oneok.com/news-and-events/press-releases/2026/10-06-2026-211615960 * Reuters. (2026, October 8). Starbucks has explored Chipotle takeover, FT reports. WMBD. https://wmbdradio.com/2026/10/08/starbucks-explored-chipotle-takeover-ft-reports/ * Semafor (Goswami, R.). (2026, October 6). A Starbucks-Chipotle tie-up might be crazy enough to work. Semafor. https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2026/a-starbucks-chipotle-tie-up-might-be-crazy-enough-to-work * Starbucks Corporation. (2026, October 8). Starbucks announces Q4 and full fiscal year 2026 results conference call [Press release]. https://investor.starbucks.com/news/financial-releases/news-details/2026/Starbucks-Announces-Q4-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx * Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (2026, October 8). TSMC September 2026 revenue report [6-K]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm * Uber Technologies, Inc. (2026, October 5). Uber announces date of third quarter 2026 results conference call [Press release]. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Uber-Announces-Date-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx * Uber Technologies, Inc. (2026, October 6). Uber to acquire ezCater as it brings catering to Uber Eats [Press release]. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Uber-to-Acquire-ezCater-as-it-Brings-Catering-to-Uber-Eats/default.aspx Internal data Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com (https://telltales.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)

2. 

   7 Oct 2026

   $1 a User vs. 15%

   Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: oil stuck in triple digits, a 10-year Treasury headed toward 6%, SpaceX’s $40 billion Nvidia build, the agent threat to Apple’s App Store, and what a trillion-dollar valuation buys at Eli Lilly. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * SpaceX is borrowing $40 billion with Nvidia credit support for what is close to a turnkey rack build, and Mike puts SpaceX’s Nvidia spend at $180 to $280 billion next calendar year against a Street number near $400 billion for Nvidia’s fiscal 2027, so one customer could equal half of the prior year’s revenue. * Brent sits at $100 and WTI in the low $90s with Hunt calling the Iran standoff an indefinite stalemate, and the 12-month backwardation has narrowed from about $20 to $10 to $12 as the 2027 strip rises; natural gas is holding in the $3s despite Permian associated gas driving two-thirds of the supply increase. * Hunt expects the $1.55 trillion deficit shown in Exhibit A to land closer to $1.9 to $2 trillion and, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.5%, predicts 6% by the first half of December, a direct hit to mortgage rates and to Lennar, Home Depot, and Lowe’s. * Jason’s Apple bear case is that Meta’s Muse agent moves transactions off Apple hardware: a two-core cloud instance lists at 4 cents an hour and likely costs Meta about $1 per user per month, so $7 of transaction volume at Apple’s 15% fee covers it, which threatens App Store services growth while Apple pushes into low-margin home hardware with LG. * Lilly trades at a $1 trillion equity value on $23 billion of free cash flow (Exxon generates $50 billion, Apple $130 billion), which Jason defends on follow-on GLP-1 patents and out-of-cycle pipeline acquisitions; he expects Grail’s Galleri test to win a limited-cancer approval after a 7 to 2 advisory vote on risk-benefit and a split vote on effectiveness. Show Notes [00:33] Oil Exhibit C is unchanged. Brent is at $100 and WTI in the low $90s, and Hunt sees the Iran standoff as a stalemate with no end date. [01:42] Backwardation The 2027 oil price keeps rising, cutting the 12-month backwardation from about $20 to $10 to $12. The market is pricing the stalemate as lasting. [02:13] Gas Natural gas is holding in the $3s as new LNG trains come on, but high oil prices keep pushing associated gas out of the Permian. [02:55] Deficit Exhibit A needs a rework, with the deficit likely closer to $2 trillion. Hunt predicts a 6% 10-year Treasury by the first half of December and flags the hit to homebuilders and home improvement retailers. [05:42] SpaceX’s $40 Billion SpaceX is borrowing $40 billion with Nvidia credit support for a near-turnkey rack build. Mike sizes SpaceX’s Nvidia spend at $180 to $280 billion next calendar year. [08:02] Nvidia’s Pace Why SpaceX builds on Nvidia alone: a yearly generation leap that no one else matches, plus the cooling, power, and architecture that let Colossus run 100,000 coherent GPUs. [10:33] Apple Jason was an Apple bull for about a day. The home hardware push with LG is a low-margin bet in a crowded market, and the company needs a software leader. [12:32] Agents vs. the App Store Meta’s Muse gives every user a cloud server for roughly $1 a month. Transactions that run there never touch Apple hardware or Apple’s 15% fee. [17:11] Lilly at a Trillion Hunt lines up the 12 trillion-dollar tech companies against Exxon, Lilly, JP Morgan, and Walmart. Jason makes the case for Lilly’s follow-on GLP-1 patents and pipeline acquisitions. [20:33] Grail’s FDA Vote The advisory panel split on Galleri’s effectiveness and voted 7 to 2 that the benefit outweighs the risk. Jason expects approval for a limited set of cancers. [23:00] Hospital Price Letters The FTC sent warning letters to a couple dozen large hospital groups over price transparency rules that have gone unenforced for years. [23:57] After the Midterms What a Democratic House and Senate would mean for the administration’s healthcare agenda, and why food supply reform and price transparency look bipartisan. [26:44] Food Additives How the generally-recognized-as-safe system lets manufacturers self-certify new ingredients, and how a 1997 change made notifying the FDA voluntary. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe. More Apple and more on food additives next week. Cashtags $AAPL $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL $GRAL $HD $ILMN $INTC $JPM $LEN $LLY $LOW $META $MU $NVDA $TSLA $VRTX $WMT $XOM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com (https://telltales.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)

3. 

   4 Oct 2026

   Weekend Update - W2640

   ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → (https://telltales.topmarkcapital.com/w2640/) The Tape — W2640 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters No universe names reporting in the coming 7 days. Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-02.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief Reports on Broadcom’s financing. The Cashflow Memo Micron’s Fourth Quarter and Broadcom’s Financing Commitments Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, the financing commitments in Broadcom’s 10-Q, and NextEra’s Texas power project The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2641. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:40 | Theme: AI infrastructure financing (Broadcom, NextEra) * 3:20 | Deep dive: Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter * 5:50 | Rapid-fire: Regeneron, UnitedHealth, Interactive Brokers, the earnings calendar * 8:00 | Close * 8:20 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: reports on Broadcom’s financing for Anthropic, NextEra’s Texas power project, Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, and the Sanofi and Regeneron expansion. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme: AI infrastructure financing Ava: Reuters reported on Thursday, citing Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing, that Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion in convertible notes[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001]. Per Reuters, that is about a third of a $125 billion, five-year commitment by Anthropic to lease TPU computing capacity[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001]. Ava: Broadcom’s 10-Q, filed September 10, describes a backstop and convertible notes, each tied to customer lease agreements[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. It does not name a customer. The backstop was given to a financial partner, on a customer’s five-year lease obligations. If the customer defaults on a lease, Broadcom owes the difference between 85% of the outstanding lease amounts and the value received from selling the AI racks[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q states the limit this way. Broadcom 10-Q (quoted): Our maximum potential liability under the Backstop upon the deployment of all AI racks, on an undiscounted basis, was approximately $29 billion.[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910] Ava: The 10-Q says no amounts have been paid under the backstop[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q also describes convertible notes. Under certain circumstances, and if needed, a customer may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of them, to be used solely for the customer’s obligations under the lease agreements. As of August 2, none had been issued[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. Ava: On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Blackstone and a group of banks are assembling $60 billion of financing for AI chips[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002]. Bloomberg reported that it includes a $42 billion senior secured tranche, that Broadcom will provide residual value support on that tranche, and that the deal has not been announced[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002]. Ava: Reuters also reported this week, from the same Anthropic filing, that Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion on infrastructure over the next decade, across six partners, with about 80% of it non-cancelable or payable whether or not the capacity is used[^reuters-anthropic-518-20260929]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Broadcom at 51 times free cash flow, on $34 billion of free cash flow[^memo-avgo-20260928]. Ava: Next, NextEra. On Wednesday, NextEra Energy, Lewis Energy Group and Related Digital said the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Republic of Korea selected Related Companies and NextEra Energy Resources, in partnership with Lewis Energy Group, to develop Project Star in Encinal, Texas[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Per the companies’ release, it is a $22 billion natural gas power campus with about 6.5 gigawatts of generation, built to support a 5-gigawatt data center campus on an adjacent site[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Ava: The release says the campus will be owned jointly by the Republic of Korea and the United States, and built and operated by the Related and NextEra Energy Resources joint venture[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Initial generation is expected as early as 2029, subject to permitting and approvals[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Deep dive: Micron Ava: Micron reported its fiscal fourth quarter on Wednesday. Per the 8-K, revenue was $54 billion, against $41 billion in the prior quarter and $11 billion a year earlier[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Net income was about $38 billion[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: For the fiscal year, revenue was $133 billion, against $37 billion the year before[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $62 billion, after $27 billion of capital expenditures, net of government incentives[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: Micron’s guidance for the current quarter is revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, at a gross margin of about 86%[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: In its prepared remarks for the earnings call, Micron said fiscal fourth-quarter DRAM revenue was about $40 billion, 73% of total revenue[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: Micron said it has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, which it estimates at more than 35% of its revenue through 2030[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Three-quarters of that estimated revenue has a defined pricing framework, and the remaining quarter is priced periodically, based on market prices[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: Micron put its remaining performance obligations at about $150 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Customer cash deposits received in the quarter were about $12 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: For calendar 2027 and 2028, Micron expects industry DRAM bit shipments to grow in the low-20s percent range and NAND in the mid-20s, and expects the industry to remain supply constrained in both years[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra, in the prepared remarks, on DRAM supply. Sanjay Mehrotra (quoted): Even with additional industry DRAM cleanroom space plans, with robust demand trends including new upside requests from customers, we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.[^mu-remarks-20260930] Ava: Micron said it plans to increase capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 versus its prior plans[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Micron at 28 times free cash flow, on $43 billion of free cash flow, figures that predate this report[^memo-mu-20260928]. Rapid-fire Ava: Page 19 of the memo. Sanofi and Regeneron announced on Thursday an expansion of their antibody collaboration[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Per the release, Regeneron receives $1 billion upfront, with up to $7 billion more in milestone payments[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Ava: The companies will co-develop and co-commercialize four new long-acting antibodies, and share costs and any profits equally[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Regeneron also has an option to include Sanofi’s lunsekimig, exercisable when its phase 3 studies in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are complete[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Ava: Also on page 19, UnitedHealth. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that UnitedHealth is dropping 2027 Medicare Advantage plans covering about 390,000 members[^bbg-unh-maplans-20261001]. UnitedHealth reports earnings on Tuesday, October 13[^earn-unh]. Ava: Interactive Brokers released its September metrics on Thursday. Per the release, client accounts were 5.6 million, 35% higher than a year earlier, and daily average revenue trades were 4.1 million, 6% higher[^pr-ibkr-metrics-20261001]. Interactive Brokers reports earnings on Thursday, October 15[^earn-ibkr]. Ava: On page 13 of the memo, the banks. The SEC on Friday censured two JPMorgan units in a settled order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The order finds that they permitted a person subject to a statutory disqualification to be involved in security-based swap transactions, and failed to supervise that person[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The sanctions are a censure and a cease-and-desist order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. CNBC, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported that Goldman Sachs’s board has discussed president John Waldron succeeding David Solomon as chief executive as early as next year[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929]. CNBC also reported that a Goldman spokesman said there is no definitive timeline for succession[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929]. Ava: The earnings calendar. Goldman Sachs[^earn-gs] and JPMorgan[^earn-jpm] report on Tuesday, October 13. Morgan Stanley[^earn-ms], ASML[^earn-asml] and Fastenal[^earn-fast] report on Wednesday, October 14. Taiwan Semiconductor reports on Thursday, October 15[^earn-tsm]. Close Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2641. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack. Disclaimer Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned. Sources * Bloomberg. (2026, October 1). UnitedHealth, Humana Drop Medicare Advantage Plans to Boost Profit. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/health-insurers-ditch-medicare-advantage-plans-to-boost-profit * Bloomberg. (2026, October 2). Broadcom Amassing $60 Billion to Fund Chips for Anthropic. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/broadcom-starts-amassing-60-billion-to-fund-chips-for-anthropic * Broadcom Inc. (2026, September 10). Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended August 2, 2026 [10-Q]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016826000080/avgo-20260802.htm * CNBC. (2026, September 29). Goldman Sachs CEO succession planning faces one big problem. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/goldman-sachs-ceo-succession-planning.html * Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (2026, October 1). Interactive Brokers Group reports brokerage metrics and other financial information for September 2026, includes Reg.-NMS execution statistics [Press release]. Business Wire. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/interactive-brokers-group-reports-brokerage-161500811.html * Micron Technology, Inc. (2026, September 30). Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call prepared remarks. Micron Investor Relations. https://investors.micron.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/Q4-FY26-Prepared-Remarks.pdf * Micron Technology, Inc. (2026, September 30). Micron Technology, Inc. reports record fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results [8-K, Exhibit 99.1]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000018/a2026q4ex991-pressrelease.htm * NextEra Energy, Inc., Lewis Energy Group, & Related Digital. (2026, September 30). The United States Department of Commerce and the Government of the Republic of Korea announce strategic investment in Project Star, a $22.3 billion energy infrastructure campus in Encinal, Texas [Press release]. https://www.investor.nexteraenergy.com/news-and-events/news-releases/2026/09-30-2026-231920318 * Reuters. (2026, October 1). Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, filing says. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/broadcom-lending-anthropic-42-billion-chips-reuters.html * Reuters. (2026, September 29). Anthropic’s $518 billion AI buildout hinges largely on deals that cannot be canceled, filing shows. KSL. https://www.ksl.com/article/51629885/anthropics-518-billion-ai-buildout-hinges-largely-on-deals-that-cannot-be-canceled-filing-shows * Sanofi & Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (2026, October 1). Sanofi and Regeneron expand global Alliance with multiple next-generation, long-acting immunology antibodies [Press release]. https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-releases/2026/2026-10-01-05-00-00-3372517 * U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (2026, October 2). In the Matter of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (Exchange Act Release No. 106569). https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/admin/2026/34-106569.pdf Internal data Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com (https://telltales.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)

Who has been a guest on Telltales

Names identified in recent episode analyses. Showing up to five guests.

• Marc Benioff
• Dawn Riley
• RFK Jr.
• Elon Musk

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

YouTube views

9,817

Score snapshot 15 Sept 2025

Apple Podcasts (US)

5.0 / 5

6 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 70 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

90

Social presence

0

YouTube

68

Engagement

60

Contact Telltales

Guest appearances

Does not typically book guests

Based on episode analysis; this does not confirm that the show is currently accepting guests.

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Questions about Telltales