In a world where most investors think in quarters, The 100 Year Thinkers offers insights from investors who think in decades. Hosted by Matt Ziegler and Bogumil Baranowski and featuring Robert Hagstrom, and Chris Mayer, this monthly roundtable will tackle many of the issues all of us face as investors, but look at them through the lens of investors who operate over very long time frames. We will cover a wide range of topics ranging from stock selection to portfolio construction to the economy and behavioral finance, but we will do it by focusing on what matters over the long-term.
The 100 Year Thinkers: Long-Term Compounding in a Short-Term World
Claim This Podcastby Excess Returns
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10 episodes
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Podcast Overview
In a world where most investors think in quarters, The 100 Year Thinkers offers insights from investors who think in decades. Hosted by Matt Ziegler and Bogumil Baranowski and featuring Robert Hagstrom, and Chris Mayer, this monthly roundtable will tackle many of the issues all of us face as investors, but look at them through the lens of investors who operate over very long time frames. We will cover a wide range of topics ranging from stock selection to portfolio construction to the economy and behavioral finance, but we will do it by focusing on what matters over the long-term.
Language
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Publishing Since
10/13/2025
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Recent Episodes
July 27, 2026
Warren Buffett Published His Whole Playbook | Robert Hagstrom on Why Only One Tenth of 1% Uses It
<p>Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.</p><p>They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett's warning that the market's casino can overwhelm its cathedral.</p><p>The Warren Buffett Portfolio - 25th Anniversary Edition<br /><a href="https://amzn.to/3TVXoru" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://amzn.to/3TVXoru</a></p><p>Robert Hagstrom on X<br /><a href="https://x.com/RobertGHagstrom" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://x.com/RobertGHagstrom</a></p><p>Equity Compass<br /><a href="https://www.equitycompass.com/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.equitycompass.com/</a></p><p>Topics covered</p><ul><li><p>Why Markowitz's definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory</p></li><li><p>Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk</p></li><li><p>What Hagstrom's study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance</p></li><li><p>The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing</p></li><li><p>How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management</p></li><li><p>What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior</p></li><li><p>Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets</p></li><li><p>Buffett's cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation</p></li><li><p>The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working</p></li><li><p>Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino</p></li><li><p>How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings</p></li><li><p>Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing</p></li></ul><p>Timestamps</p><p>00:00 Intro<br />04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance<br />11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration<br />17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors<br />22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory<br />26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets<br />32:28 Buffett's cathedral and casino metaphor<br />37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction<br />42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts<br />46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike<br />51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs<br />56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics<br />01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focused investing<br />01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakes</p><p>Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:<br /><a href="https://excessreturns.co/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://excessreturns.co</a></p><p>No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.</p><p></p>
June 26, 2026
Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
<p>On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.</p><p>The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game<br><a href="https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferer">https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ</a>Main topics covered</p><ul><li><p>Why SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor discipline</p></li><li><p>How Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winner</p></li><li><p>Why great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong price</p></li><li><p>The danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysis</p></li><li><p>Why many AI features may not create real customer value</p></li><li><p>What the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeouts</p></li><li><p>Why investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptional</p></li><li><p>How to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impact</p></li><li><p>Why capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scale</p></li><li><p>How to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trust</p></li><li><p>Why the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the way</p></li><li><p>What rational exuberance might look like for long-term investors</p></li></ul><p>Timestamps</p><p>00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing<br>04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much<br>08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work<br>12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge<br>16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real<br>21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature<br>25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations<br>29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights<br>34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation<br>38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies<br>43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market<br>47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns<br>52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance<br>56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game</p><p><br></p><p></p>
May 29, 2026
The Problem With Modern Portfolio Theory | Robert Hagstrom on How Comfort Trumped Returns
<p>In this episode of The 100-Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom explains why modern portfolio theory pulled investors away from business analysis and toward portfolio math. In this episode, Hagstrom, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski discuss Markowitz, beta, efficient markets, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, business-driven investing, owner earnings, benchmarks, and why thinking like a business owner changes how investors understand risk.</p><p>The Warren Buffett Portfolio, 25th Anniversary Editionhttps://amzn.to/4uz8sZ3</p><p>Topics covered:</p><ul><li><p>Why Hagstrom thinks modern portfolio theory changed investing’s objective</p></li><li><p>The difference between volatility, variance and real investment risk</p></li><li><p>How Benjamin Graham and John Burr Williams framed risk around intrinsic value</p></li><li><p>Why beta became the dominant shorthand for risk</p></li><li><p>How the 1973-74 bear market helped institutionalize modern portfolio theory</p></li><li><p>Why Berkshire preserved the business owner’s lens</p></li><li><p>The “cathedral and casino” distinction between owning businesses and trading stocks</p></li><li><p>Owner earnings, return on invested capital and cost of capital</p></li><li><p>Why business owners often make better long-term equity investors</p></li><li><p>Look-through earnings and building a “mini Berkshire”</p></li><li><p>The difference between making money and beating a benchmark</p></li><li><p>How benchmarks can distort investor behavior</p></li><li><p>Why knowing yourself and your clients matters in portfolio construction</p></li></ul><p>Timestamps:</p><p>00:00 Robert Hagstrom on why risk is not volatility</p><p>00:40 Business-driven investing vs portfolio math</p><p>02:42 How modern portfolio theory defined risk as variance</p><p>06:38 Graham’s margin of safety vs Markowitz’s definition of risk</p><p>09:44 Sharpe, beta and simplifying portfolio risk</p><p>12:51 Why the 1973-74 bear market helped MPT take over</p><p>16:20 Why MPT became institutionalized without proving it could beat the market</p><p>18:53 Buffett, Keynes and concentrated investors violating MPT</p><p>22:53 Stocks as businesses and Buffett’s cathedral vs casino</p><p>30:01 Business analysis, owner earnings and return above cost of capital</p><p>36:41 Look-through earnings and running a mini Berkshire</p><p>41:34 Making money vs outperforming a benchmark</p><p>47:30 Why Berkshire’s public and private businesses shaped Buffett</p><p>50:05 How investors can start applying the Buffett way<br>54:05 Bogumil on how investing theory becomes accepted truth<br>58:09 Why direct ownership creates responsibility and conviction<br>01:00:15 Investor know thyself and the limits of outsourcing caring<br>01:03:35 Finding the right clients for a business-owner investing approach</p><p></p>
10 total episodes available
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