Asian Capital & US Commercial Real Estate: Latest Trends
Japanese investors now own about 6% of the US home-construction market, according to the Wall Street Journal,, and Japan-linked investors have purchased at least $2.1B worth of NYC real estate since 2024.
What’s clear is that amidst geopolitical volatility and shifting global economic dynamics, cross-border capital flows are changing. Cross-border real estate investment into the United States from Europe and Canada is slowing, while Asian capital activity—particularly from Japan—is increasing. So what does that mean for other investors in US commercial real estate?
In this episode of the AFIRE Podcast, host Gunnar Branson checks in with two experts on Asian capital from Cushman & Wakefield: Gordon Marsden, the firm’s head of global capital, APAC & EMEA, and Marc Royer, the firm’s managing director, global capital advisory.
Together, they explore the key drivers behind Asian capital deployment in US property markets. They discuss some of the attributes that differentiate Japanese investment strategies relative to those of other countries. And they describe how Japanese investors navigate currency volatility and structural changes, as well as the evolving sophistication of Asia-Pacific institutional investors.
LINKS
Japan Is Placing a Multibillion-Dollar Bet on the U.S. Housing Market: Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/japan-is-placing-a-multibillion-dollar-bet-on-the-u-s-housing-market-2ced2a01
Why Japanese Capital Is Moving Into U.S. Real Estate Markets: America Mortgages
https://www.americamortgages.com/japanese-moving-into-us-real-estate/
Japanese investors rush to buy NYC multifamily: The Real Deal
https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/04/29/japanese-buyers-become-driving-force-of-nyc-multifamily/
To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences:
https://www.afire.org/events/
KEY MOMENTS
00:00 Introduction
01:09 Japanese Capital in US Markets
03:45 Evolving Investment Models
05:35 Structural Capital Origins
07:32 Demographics and Diversification
08:35 Knowledge Acquisition Strategies
09:19 Managing Currency Volatility
13:08 Long-Term Portfolio Allocation
14:55 Relationship-Driven Investing
18:00 Regional Investor Sophistication
21:02 Asia-Pacific Regional Investment Trends
24:48 Shared Market Lessons
27:12 Common Investor Misconceptions
30:23 Regional Infrastructure Demand
33:02 Future Outlook
DISCLAIMER
The publisher of the AFIRE Podcast is not engaged in providing tax, accounting, or legal advice through this publication. No content published in the AFIRE Podcast is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Some information included in the AFIRE Podcast has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable, though the publisher is not responsible for guaranteeing the accuracy of third-party information. The opinions expressed in the AFIRE Podcast are those of its respective contributors and sources and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher.
8 Sept 2026
Failure Analysis for Institutional Investors | Donald Sheets, Harvard Graduate School of Design
Things don't always work out the way we expect. And in fact, many of AFIRE’s institutional investors mark their resilience as leaders in terms of how many downturns they’ve weathered. So how do the best leaders, and the best organizations, manage failure? What systems do they have in place to analyze mistakes and improve in the future?
Donald Sheets, lecturer in real estate at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, studies failure as an academic discipline. In this conversation with AFIRE CEO and podcast host Gunnar Branson, Sheets describes what separates successful, resilient investment funds, and how they deal with failure, from those who keep making the same mistakes over time.
Note: This podcast is being published in conjunction with Donald Sheets’ essay on failure in AFIRE’s latest Summit Journal, which will be distributed at our Annual Member Meeting on Sept. 15-17, 2026, in New York City.
LINKS
Donald Sheets writes about organizational judgment in the latest Summit Journal:
https://www.afire.org/summit/nextdecision/
He's also speaking on distressed investing, capital markets and leadership at the upcoming Annual Member Meeting in New York City on Sept. 15-17, 2026. Register for the AMM:
https://www.afire.org/events/amm2026/
Check out the agenda for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting here:
https://www.afire.org/events/amm2026/#agenda
Learn more about Donald Sheets here:
https://www.gsd.harvard.edu/person/donald-sheets/
Donald Sheets is on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/donald-d-sheets-b4ab62343/
KEY MOMENTS
00:00 Predicting the future
01:44 Introducing Donald Sheets
02:53 Industry silver linings
05:51 Defining failure neutrality
09:34 The medical precedent
10:38 The aviation example
12:08 Retrospective business analysis
13:51 Reframing for success
13:42 Analytical evaluation tools
14:12 The garbage analogy
16:48 Evaluating radical success
15:07 Managing analytical bias
24:23 Incremental organizational steps
31:13 Secondary vs primary
32:29 Deepening sensitivity analysis
3 Aug 2026
Is It Safe? Notes on Success in CRE | Geoffrey Dohrman, Institutional Real Estate
AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson interviews Geoffrey Dohrmann, founder of Institutional Real Estate Inc., exploring how relationships and trust drive success in commercial real estate capital raising and deal-making.
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