Join the members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team as they discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in the markets and economy.
Monday, October 12th. The Meaningful Differences with Treasury Yields
Featuring Associate Research Analyst, Mark Schaefer.
5 Oct 2026
Monday, October 5th. Have You Seen Mortgage Rates?
Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.
28 Sept 2026
Monday, September 28th. The Mega-IPO Wave for AI.
Associate research analyst Mark Schaefer joined the episode to walk through strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
Strengths
Corporate earnings are very strong. About 86% of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates — the highest share since Q2 2021 — and analysts expect roughly 30% full-year 2026 earnings growth (FactSet). Higher profits support stock prices and mechanically pull P/E multiples down because earnings sit in the denominator.
The job market is also holding up, with unemployment forecasts steady around 4.1%. That stability supports consumer confidence and spending, which remains a core driver of the economy.
Weaknesses
Valuations remain elevated. The S&P 500 trailing twelve-month P/E is about 25.6, down from earlier highs near 28.9 but still well above the five-year average of ~19. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest level since July 2007, even after the Fed’s latest hike. Stocks therefore need stronger earnings just to justify current prices.
Market breadth is poor. AI-related names (AMD is cited as an example) have hit all-time highs, while banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and utilities have been sluggish or near multi-month/yearly lows. Headline index strength therefore overstates how broadly the market is participating. If the leaders fade, there is limited ballast underneath.
Opportunities
A U.S.–China trade deal (now delayed until January) would ease tariff costs for businesses and consumers. Polymarket odds were cited at 93% that a deal eventually happens. That would be particularly constructive for trade-exposed areas such as semiconductors and manufacturing.A large AI IPO wave is another theme. SpaceX listed in June; Anthropic and OpenAI are expected next. Listings would give investors more direct AI exposure and generate underwriting fees that have already helped banks such as Morgan Stanley post strong revenue.
Threats
Another Fed hike is possible. The next meeting is October 28, and some discussion points to a further 25 basis points. Higher rates raise costs for businesses and households and increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which makes already-high valuations harder to sustain. New Fed Chair Warsh was described as keeping his views close.
The consistent recommendation was a diversified portfolio built to withstand short-term volatility so that long-term outcomes remain favorable.
Who has been a guest on The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast
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Dr Brian Jacobsen
Ken Bellinger
Matt Morzy
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