A philosophy Ph.D. student working his way, with the world's leading thinkers, through the problems of philosophy, religion, science, and the existential struggle with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) - similar to Alex O'Connor, but more American. Who wants to come along for the ride?
mileskdonahue.substack.com (https://mileskdonahue.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast)
#102 An Unheated Discussion on Science, Probability, and Induction - Mike Titelbaum
Mike Titelbaum, author of the two-volume "Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fundamentals-Bayesian-Epistemology-Introducing-Credences-ebook/dp/B09XXZYNTT/ref=sr_1_1?crid=365U8P0S94RIY&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.IUmT5uhCzbvvYcgZ3ZTgvFl0mD3T7x_s4lIy0HadZzTGjHj071QN20LucGBJIEps.hatU5WBUn5bEfqJwthCsOkq9fb9Zw7RiTsOpsNoVDj4&dib_tag=se&keywords=fundamentals+of+bayesian+epistemology&qid=1792093058&sprefix=fundamentals+of+bayesian+epistemolog%2Caps%2C136&sr=8-1)," dissects the use of probability in philosophy, philosophy of religion, science, and everyday life. We do, of course, discuss my recent discussion with John Norton and the material theory of induction.
Video of this interview is available on YouTube (https://youtu.be/RYvwzTwiBgQ).
To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/mileskdonahue) or Buy Me a Coffee (http://(https://buymeacoffee.com/mileskdonahue).
Follow me on X because you’re awesome (https://www.twitter.com/PhilosopherMKD).
EPISODE CHAPTERS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:11 What is Bayesianism?
00:05:21 Must credences have precise numerical values?
00:07:16 Imprecise credence and comparative confidence
00:14:27 Bayesianism and Norton’s material theory of induction
00:20:02 Can we assign probabilities to the universe’s initial conditions?
00:28:57 Fine-tuning and the principle of indifference
00:35:13 Objective versus subjective Bayesianism
00:39:20 Must rational beliefs obey the probability axioms?
00:47:01 Incommensurability and alternative models of credence
00:55:06 Can Bayesianism evaluate evidence for God?
00:59:08 How probability theory illuminates evidential support
01:03:03 Everyday probability versus mathematical probability
01:07:55 Does subjective Bayesianism entail skepticism?
01:19:46 What is Titelbaum most uncertain about?
Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe (https://mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)
2 Oct 2026
#101 We Must Save Science from Quantum Mechanics
Emily Adlam discusses the problems facing several interpretations of quantum mechanics: principal among them, the probability problem. Prepare for discussion of self-locating credences, branch-counting, and whether a mechanism deposits consciousness throughout the branching wavefunction of the universe.
Video of this interview is available on YouTube (https://youtu.be/cdDBaQywJB8).
To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/mileskdonahue) or Buy Me a Coffee (http://(https://buymeacoffee.com/mileskdonahue).
Follow me on X because you’re awesome (https://www.twitter.com/PhilosopherMKD).
EPISODE CHAPTERS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:52 The problem of recovering empirical confirmation
00:04:47 The many-worlds interpretation
00:07:01 The measurement problem
00:08:42 The probability problem in many-worlds
00:12:06 The decision-theoretic approach to probability
00:16:33 Self-locating evidence and Everettian quantum mechanics
00:19:20 Pure vs. superficial self-locating credence
00:25:08 Can the Born rule constrain self-locating credence?
00:30:15 Interpretations vs. theories of quantum mechanics
00:34:51 Can we save science from quantum mechanics?
00:44:30 What happened to the Copenhagen interpretation?
00:46:45 What do physicists believe about quantum mechanics?
00:48:27 The anthropic argument for God
00:56:22 Multiverses, fine-tuning, and self-locating evidence
Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe (https://mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)
24 Sept 2026
#100 A Heated Discussion on Science, Probability, and Induction - John Norton
In the hundredth episode of this podcast, I discuss the use, and misuse, of probability in science and philosophy with John Norton. Prepare for a contentious conversation about fundamental issues in probability theory, induction, and cosmic fine-tuning. This one does not disappoint.
Video of this interview is available on YouTube (https://youtu.be/H1cZnPOZcBw).
To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/mileskdonahue) or Buy Me a Coffee (http://(https://buymeacoffee.com/mileskdonahue).
Follow me on X because you’re awesome (https://www.twitter.com/PhilosopherMKD).
EPISODE CHAPTERS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:30 Formal vs. material theories of induction
00:04:58 Does material induction make induction redundant?
00:11:15 Bayesianism vs. the material theory
00:16:47 Can we say evolution is “probably” true?
00:19:23 Evidential support without probabilities
00:23:16 Can Bayesianism capture inference to the best explanation?
00:25:00 The outcome space dispute
00:29:47 Probability and the danger of false precision
00:31:03 The simulation argument and misapplied probability
00:35:39 The doomsday argument and self-locating evidence
00:38:33 Objective vs. subjective Bayesianism
00:43:36 The bootstrapping problem for probability
00:50:53 Probability in cosmology and the multiverse
00:57:59 Does inflation make our universe more probable?
01:00:19 What is John Norton most uncertain about?
Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe (https://mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)
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