Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.
Wheat Market Outlook
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271 episodes
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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.
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3/8/2021
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Recent Episodes
July 20, 2026
Wheat Market Outlook - July 20, 2026
<p><strong>Market Outlook - Wheat</strong></p><ul><li>Wheat markets enter the week trading Black Sea shipping disruptions, reduced European production expectations and perception of tightening global ending stocks, although favourable initial harvest results in Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to limit the upside. Restrictions through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait added a logistical risk premium during last week’s rally, while the strike on a merchant vessel near Odessa reinforced concerns around Black Sea export reliability. June heat also reduced wheat yield potential across parts of western and central Europe, prompting haircuts to EU production estimates. The July IGC report left global wheat production unchanged near 821 MMT and ending stocks slightly down near 279 MMT. Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. spring wheat tour for updated yield indications across the northern Plains. Western Canadian conditions remain favourable in general, but uneven, with excessive moisture creating localized acreage and yield losses across eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta, while stronger crops are developing across much of the southern and western Prairies.<br></li></ul><p><strong>Market Outlook - Durum</strong></p><ul><li><p>Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is being offset by generally favourable crop conditions and softer import demand expectations from North Africa. The USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports confirmed reduced durum area, but the cuts were widely anticipated and did not materially tighten the market outlook. Moisture across the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies has generally supported yield potential, with Saskatchewan and Alberta durum conditions remaining favourable overall despite localized excess moisture concerns. Canadian durum exports through Week 49 reached 5.44 MMT, only 1 per cent below last year, showing that demand has remained steady into the end of the current crop year. However, larger North African harvests are expected to reduce near-term import requirements from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. A strong Western Canadian crop would likely keep prices muted into early winter, with the next meaningful direction dependent on final Canadian and U.S. production, quality results and the outlook for the next North African growing season. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below.<br><strong>If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached.</strong><br><strong> </strong><br><a href="https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/">https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/</a></p></li></ul><p><br></p>
July 13, 2026
Wheat Market Outlook - July 13, 2026
<p><strong>Market Outlook - Wheat</strong></p><ul><li>Wheat markets are focused on the following factors to begin the week: The Western Canadian crop, shipping disruptions through the Sea of Azov, and the smaller global ending stocks reported in the latest USDA update. Excess moisture across parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta is creating uncertainty around eventual acreage and yield losses, although cereals such as wheat, durum and oats are generally faring better than canola and pulses, while some strong crops are developing across the southern Prairies. Restrictions affecting grain movement through the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov have added a logistical risk premium to wheat, but expectations for a promising Black Sea harvest continue to limit the upside if shipping disruptions do not persist. European heat has increasingly become a corn and summer-crop story, while U.S. heat is supporting corn and soybeans on fields that entered the period with generally adequate moisture, leaving wheat more likely to follow any broader corn rally in the near term. Prairie producers should use improvements in local basis or futures to finish old-crop wheat sales and create space before new-crop supplies begin arriving for the upcoming harvest, while remaining patient on stronger new-crop commitments until the Western Canadian production outlook becomes clearer.</li></ul><p><strong>Market Outlook - Durum</strong></p><ul><li><p>The durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage Report and Statistics Canada acreage estimates confirmed smaller North American durum area, but the reductions were broadly anticipated and did not provide a major shock to the market. The northern U.S. durum region and Canadian prairies durum region has received generally favourable moisture, supporting crop prospects and limiting immediate production concerns. At the same time, large harvests across North Africa are expected to reduce import demand from Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, with purchasing likely to reflect the greater domestic supplies available in those countries. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum values muted into early winter, at least until the market gains a clearer understanding of U.S. durum supplies and the production outlook for the next North African crop. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below.<br><strong>If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. </strong><br><a href="https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/">https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/</a></p></li></ul>
July 6, 2026
Wheat Market Outlook - July 6, 2026
<p><strong>Market Outlook – Wheat</strong></p><p>Some weather stories are showing themselves across the global wheat production regions but not enough to get markets overly excited. We have the EU heatwave which is turning into more of a corn story than a wheat story, we have the U.S. heatwave this week but on fields that have received ample rainfall and we have the Western Canadian flooding story that is yet to be fully understood how that will shake out in terms of acreage loss. The Black Sea wheat harvest is expected to be quite promising, and markets are in general satisfied with the current position of crops. Wheat has benefited today from the rise in corn values for the session and wheat markets would be more likely to ride the coattails of any Midwest corn story for the short term. Old crop wheat sales for prairie producers will need to be wrapped up to make room for the new crop coming online in 6-7 weeks. Producers should take advantage of any local bumps in basis and futures to ease out the old crop. We are still waiting to see how the new crop shapes up before making any strong commitments. </p><p><strong>Market Outlook – Durum</strong></p><p>Durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage report and Stats Canada report did not provide much of a shock of the market as acreage cuts were anticipated, but how much was the question. U.S. northern durum region has been getting good moisture. North African harvest is large and import demand is going to directly reflect the larger supplies available to Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest or depending on U.S. durum supplies moving forwards. Updated Supply and Disposition estimates below.</p><p><strong>If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. </strong></p><p><a href="https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/">https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/</a></p>
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