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World at Odds

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by Marty

5.0(1 reviews)

8 episodes

Updated Daily

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Podcast Overview

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Language

🇺🇲

Publishing Since

2/8/2026

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Recent Episodes

May 10, 2026

World at Odds Episode08 | Polymarket's Hidden Fees, Senate Paradox & Belgium at 50-to-1

Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff.Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and think like a trader — not a gambler. Andrew breaks down his weather swing-trade strategy (buy at 30¢, sell at 35¢, done for the day), and Matt digs into Polymarket's fee structure — 1.8% on crypto, 1.0% on politics, 0.75% on sports, plus maker rebates that can actually put you in the green. We also spotted something weird: Republicans are favored to win the Senate at 53%, but if you add up the individual seat markets, Democrats are winning more seats. Low liquidity or real signal? We'll deep-dive midterms next episode. New bets: Both of us are buying Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢. 🕐 Timestamps00:00 — Andrew's gambling confession01:10 — Best bets right now: House, hantavirus, aliens, Paxton08:30 — How to make money on Polymarket11:49 — Trading vs. holding: swing-trade strategy16:07 — Polymarket fee breakdown21:33 — Senate midterms: the odds paradox26:53 — New bets: Belgium World Cup at 2¢29:51 — What makes us optimistic right now🔗 LinksPolymarket Midterms Dashboard: <a href="https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms">https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms</a>Arbitrage Calculator: <a href="https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator">https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator</a>Prediction Market Converter: <a href="https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/prediction-market-converter">https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/prediction-market-converter</a>Scorecard: <a href="https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard">https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard</a>World Cup Betting Strategy: <a href="https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/world-cup-field-betting-strategy">https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/world-cup-field-betting-strategy</a>

Episode thumbnail for World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks

April 26, 2026

World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks

Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the alien confirmation market, Andrew discovers weather betting as his new edge (including the guy who gamed a Paris weather station with a hairdryer), and they rant about bloated playoff formats in the NHL, NBA, and rugby sevens. Bets of the week: Andrew goes long on London hitting 18°C, Matt buys a 7-team NHL Stanley Cup basket for 11 units. Timestamps:00:00 — Masters postmortem: Andrew's pasta-fueled meltdown04:40 — Matt's Masters losses & the "set it and forget it" lesson06:36 — Andrew's Italy trip recap08:49 — World Cup 2026 basket strategy & overround math13:17 — World Cup excitement scale & bloated tournament formats16:08 — NHL & NBA playoff rant (overtime, seven-game series, mid-season tournaments)18:10 — Alien market update: the monthly rollover "money glitch"21:45 — Weather betting: local APIs, Hong Kong heat, and the hairdryer hack27:10 — Bets of the week: London weather & NHL Stanley Cup basket Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at <a href="http://worldatodds.com">worldatodds.com</a>Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edgeFollow us on X: <a href="https://x.com/worldatodds">https://x.com/worldatodds</a>

April 5, 2026

Odds Episode06 | Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated

Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Shares Under a Dollar.<ul><li>(00:00) Intro</li><li>(01:00) Polymarket Fee Announcement</li><li>(02:54) Democrat Nomination Arbitrage Strategy</li><li>(10:08) AI-Powered Betting Dashboards</li><li>(11:16) Rapid Fire: Serious vs. Not Serious Candidates</li><li>(13:08) AOC & the Nate Silver Take</li><li>(16:48) Good Buy / Bad Buy Preview</li><li>(20:03) The Masters — Our Picks & Strategies</li><li>(27:02) Final Four & Arizona Profit Update</li><li>(29:05) World Cup Teaser</li><li>(30:20) Old Bets Wrap-Up & Lyon Mayoral Election Win</li><li>(32:36) New Bet: SpaceX Ticker Symbol (X vs. Other)</li><li>(37:06) ESUaD & Closing</li></ul>Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.comTry the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorRead: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edgeFollow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

8 total episodes available

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Frequently asked questions

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What is World at Odds?: World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world.

I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events.

We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident?

The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.
How often does this podcast release new episodes?: This podcast updates daily.
Where can I listen to this podcast?: This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
Does this podcast accept guests?: Information about guest appearances is not available.

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