Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis. <br/><br/><a href="https://xcgood.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">xcgood.substack.com</a>
xChanging’s Substack Podcast
Claim This Podcastby xChanging Good
5.0(6 reviews)
52 episodes
Updated Daily
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43
Podcast Authority
BetaFairBased on show quality, social media presence, reviews, charts, and more
Quality62
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Podcast Overview
Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis. <br/><br/><a href="https://xcgood.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">xcgood.substack.com</a>
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Publishing Since
5/25/2023
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43
Podcast Authority
BetaFairBased on show quality, social media presence, reviews, charts, and more
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Recent Episodes
February 3, 2025
Trade Trump Tokens?
<p></p><p>On the January 27 episode of the Trading Pit</p><p>👉 Hands down, the easiest, fastest way to find signal in crypto metrics without sacrificing on execution: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbWJ0X2V1WnlLZUlPekliWDZfeUZfSWJEbXBQd3xBQ3Jtc0tsNGRiRXpyRklQb0JLbGlpNFRtYVk1QnFNd0tmdzZxYnU4TEtuQnBDcDJDWGdaTXBDakFaVkxiX0ZrdUdnUmx3ZG5ueUotSzFRRE9oMnY5djNLRGwzeTdNeHpocXc5T2JzMWQ1VnRRbHA4QnRCNUszVQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Ft.me%2F%2Bw8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk&v=5ggKUPJBdcs">https://t.me/+w8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk</a></p><p><strong>Trader Round Table: How to Trade an Emerging Narrative</strong></p><p><strong>Narrative-Driven Trading:</strong> Not all narratives are equal; some, especially those pushed by regulatory bodies or political leaders like the President of the United States, hold more weight. The "Made in USA" token narrative is a key focus, with the potential to drive regulatory changes and investment<strong>.</strong></p><p><strong>Filtering Tokens:</strong> Traders should filter tokens based on volume and market cap<strong>.</strong> High volume and market capitalization are indicators of more tradable tokens. Established tokens are often the easiest to assess within new narratives<strong>.</strong></p><p><strong>Volatility and Opportunity:</strong> New tokens can offer high volatility and outsized gains but also carry higher risk. Mid-cap tokens can experience sudden surges in volume, which can be profitable.</p><p><strong>Narrative Life Cycles:</strong> Narratives tend to have a limited lifespan. They typically follow a 30-60-90 day cycle, and the market can quickly "bleed dry" any narrative.</p><p><strong>Broader Market Context:</strong> Traders should always consider the broader market, including liquidity and demand. Even compelling narratives may not lead to immediate price action if liquidity is low or overall market demand is weak<strong>.</strong></p><p><strong>Market Run-Down</strong></p><p><strong>Bitcoin's Cooling-Off:</strong> Bitcoin is currently in a cooling-off period. There is no major buying or selling pressure, and hedge funds are returning capital. Bitcoin is range-bound with key areas of support and resistance that can be used to inform potential trades<strong>.</strong></p><p><strong>Ethereum's Strategy</strong>: Ethereum is not seen as a strong trading asset for the short term, but rather as a buy-and-hold opportunity. It may decline further before a major price increase. The focus should be on its long-term potential, particularly its financialization and composable DeFi primitives.</p><p><strong>Solana's Cautionary Approach:</strong> Solana shows a similar lower high structure to Bitcoin, and trades should be considered with caution.</p><p><strong>The Flow Report</strong></p><p><strong>Stagnant ETF Flows:</strong> ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently stagnant. This indicates a need for a catalyst to reignite the market. Un-staking of ETH is outpacing new investments in ETH ETFs, which adds negative price pressure.</p><p><strong>Emerging Bitcoin Holders:</strong> A new class of long-term Bitcoin holders (over one year) is emerging, and they are currently selling, possibly due to tax implications.</p><p><strong>Ethereum's Financialization:</strong> There is optimism for Ethereum's future, especially in the financialization of assets and its composable DeFi primitives. Ether Strategy is emerging as a project for Ethereum similar to MicroStrategy for Bitcoin.</p><p><strong>Alt Season Expectations:</strong> An alt season is still expected, and regulatory changes are likely to play a significant role.</p><p><strong>Regulatory Shift:</strong> There has been a shift in the regulatory landscape from suppression to support of crypto<strong>. </strong>This will likely impact market dynamics and valuations.</p><p><strong>Bretton Woods III:</strong> A new thesis around a strategic reserve of crypto assets is developing, pointing to a potential Bretton Woods III moment. World Liberty Financial, backed by Trump, is accumulating a portfolio of crypto assets, aligning with this idea.</p><p><strong>Coinbase Premium:</strong> The Coinbase premium for Bitcoin is starting to rise, which could be a positive signal, but this trend must be sustained.</p><p><strong>Ethena and USDE:</strong> The yield on staked USDE for Ethena is linked to staking rewards and funding rates. The product is sensitive to market conditions, and the funding rates, which contribute to the yield, have been declining.</p><p>Follow the team:</p><p>Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew</p><p>On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good</p><p>Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://xcgood.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">xcgood.substack.com</a>
January 22, 2025
Trump Token (It's Complicated)
<p></p><p>On the January 21 episode of Trading Pit...</p><p>(apologies on the technical difficulties impacting audio and video. We’re working diligently to correct these issues for upcoming recordings). </p><p>* <strong>Account size and trading strategy</strong>: Whether to trade on-chain or off-chain is a primary consideration, regardless of account size. </p><p>* <strong>Goals over account size</strong>: Instead of focusing on account size, traders should consider their goals, such as whether they want to generate monthly income, or achieve a 10x or 100x return. Smaller accounts ($1,000) may require more luck and reliance on "influencer" information.</p><p>* <strong>Minimum capital for success:</strong> To be successful, traders should have at least $10,000 and invest in tooling and infrastructure.</p><p>* <strong>Importance of tooling</strong>: Having the right tools for information, execution, and reporting is essential for successful trading.</p><p>* <strong>Liquidity profile</strong>: When choosing assets to trade, liquidity should be a primary consideration, as well as sufficient volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) is always a good option due to its liquidity and volatility.</p><p>* <strong>Capital efficiency</strong>: For larger accounts, consider capital efficiency such as using a basket of assets as collateral to trade perps and generate monthly income. Another capital efficient strategy is to use a loan from collateralized assets to invest in potentially high growth assets.</p><p>* <strong>Risk management</strong>: It's important to lock in profits to compound positions and grow an account. Instead of trying to short Bitcoin, traders should consider deleveraging.</p><p>* <strong>Laddering down</strong>: Laddering down is a strategy that involves breaking up a buy order into multiple orders at progressively lower prices, to manage risk and capture better entry points.</p><p>* <strong>Trump Token</strong>: The launch of the Trump token was an on-chain event that attracted about 400,000 traders, highlighting the potential of on-chain trading. It also created an emotional drama for many traders.</p><p>* <strong>Bitcoin outlook:</strong> Despite the recent price surge, the market is not overheated. The widely expected announcements about a strategic Bitcoin reserve did not occur, leaving many to speculate on what might happen in the coming months. </p><p>* <strong>Solana surge</strong>: Solana experienced a significant increase in price and trading volume, driven by the Trump token launch. The on-chain fees also increased significantly. Solana appears primed to benefit from Trump’s push for crypto in the United States. </p><p>* <strong>Ethereum weakness</strong>: Ethereum is currently struggling, with its price reaching an another low against Bitcoin. On chain fees are very low, indicating lack of demand. Staking yields have also dropped. The market isn't showing any interest in the potential for price appreciation in ETH and the increase in unlocked ETH is impacting its price. </p><p>👉 Try PANDA Terminal: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbWJ0X2V1WnlLZUlPekliWDZfeUZfSWJEbXBQd3xBQ3Jtc0tsNGRiRXpyRklQb0JLbGlpNFRtYVk1QnFNd0tmdzZxYnU4TEtuQnBDcDJDWGdaTXBDakFaVkxiX0ZrdUdnUmx3ZG5ueUotSzFRRE9oMnY5djNLRGwzeTdNeHpocXc5T2JzMWQ1VnRRbHA4QnRCNUszVQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Ft.me%2F%2Bw8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk&v=5ggKUPJBdcs">https://t.me/+w8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk</a></p><p>👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod</p><p>Follow the team:</p><p>Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew</p><p>On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good</p><p>Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://xcgood.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">xcgood.substack.com</a>
January 16, 2025
Bitcoin: How To Survive January 2025
<p></p><p>In the January 14 episode of the Trading Pit:</p><p>* <strong>Market sentiment is cautious due to recent market volatility and uncertainty surrounding upcoming events, such as the CPI print and the new US president's inauguration</strong>.</p><p>* <strong>Bitcoin is showing signs of stability</strong>, with a key support level identified around 96,000. As long as this level holds, there is potential for upward price movement.</p><p>* <strong>On-chain data for Bitcoin reveals weakness</strong>, with declining transaction fees and lackluster ETF inflows, suggesting a lack of strong demand.</p><p>* <strong>Ethereum is facing multiple headwinds</strong>, including a decrease in its “moneyness ratio” due to significant ETH being unstaked from the Beacon Chain, particularly by Coinbase. This trend indicates a weakening demand for ETH as collateral or for use in DeFi protocols.</p><p>* <strong>Outflows from Ethereum ETFs are contributing to the negative pressure on ETH price</strong>.</p><p>* <strong>Ethereum is experiencing low network demand, evident in the extremely low gas fees</strong>. This lack of demand raises concerns about the utility and adoption of the Ethereum network despite ongoing efforts to improve scalability.</p><p>* <strong>Solana is showing unexpected resilience, driven by activity in the AI agent ecosystem</strong>. Despite a general market downturn, Solana's on-chain activity, particularly related to AI agent development and transactions, is supporting its price and network usage.</p><p>* <strong>Binance is accumulating a significant amount of Solana</strong>, suggesting potential plans for increased involvement in the Solana ecosystem.</p><p>* <strong>The success of the Ethereum-based structured product, Ethena, is viewed as both positive and negative.</strong> While it demonstrates demand for ETH as a yield-generating asset, it is also absorbing a significant amount of ETH, potentially suppressing its price.</p><p>* <strong>The potential for AI agents to drive meaningful on-chain activity and demand for ETH is still uncertain</strong>. While the concept holds promise, current applications are mostly focused on superficial aspects, lacking substantial real-world utility.</p><p>* <strong>Traders are advised to exercise caution and manage risk effectively in the current market environment</strong>. This involves using appropriate leverage, setting stop-loss orders, and avoiding impulsive trading decisions driven by fear or hype.</p><p>TL:DR</p><p><strong>While Bitcoin shows signs of potential stability, Ethereum is facing significant challenges</strong>. The emergence of <strong>Solana as a resilient force</strong> and the <strong>potential of AI agents offer some optimism</strong>, but it remains to be seen if these factors can drive sustained growth in the market.</p><p>great time to be in the market. </p><p>👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod</p><p>Follow the team:</p><p>Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew</p><p>On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good</p><p>Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit <a href="https://xcgood.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1">xcgood.substack.com</a>
52 total episodes available with 18 transcripts
Deep-dive analytics for xChanging’s Substack Podcast
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