Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.
Blain’s Morning Porridge November 6th, 2026
“The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few…”
Elon Musk has been described as the biggest loser from the Blue Tsunami midterms – what will it mean for his firms’ valuations, and his future influence. We need to know what really went on between Musk and Trump. Even more critical is the utility of SpaceX’s technology and Starlink’s satellite constellation as a Strategic Resource. Some tough decisions, but sensible choices lie ahead.
Key Takeaways
The defence and security of any nation is the number one priority. The emergence of new technologies with defence and strategic deterrence implications raises issues about how best to manage and deploy them.
Strategically critical infrastructure and resources should be democratically accountable. Launch systems and satellite constellations are critical strategic resources.
Should the control of inventions critical to national security remain in the hands of inventors or the state? History is littered with examples of how states can combine entrepreneurship with security, and balance wealth and power with accountability.
The number one concern of US voters in the recent Midterms was corruption. Political power and influence create business and valuation risks. The money Musk spent supporting Trump, and the subsequent sacking of inspectors investigating Tesla and Space X after the 2024 Presidential election, needs investigation.
There is a strong case for the nationalisation of Space X’s delivery capabilities and the Starlink satellite constellation, but that will raise many issues around rewarding entrepreneurial innovation vs private enterprise overriding national interests.
Its Friday… so let’s have a story in three acts…
Act I
The cognoscenti of the aerospace industry rank Sir Frank Whittle among the greatest engineers in history. He is certainly very high on the list of those insufficiently recognised for their achievements. Whittle invented the Jet Engine – one of the most valuable and important inventions of the 20th Century.
Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com (http://www.morningporridge.com/) for access to the full story.
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5 Nov 2026
What is the Credit Market Telling Us?
Blain’s Morning Porridge November 5th, 2026
“A liquidity crash is not the bottom – it’s a sign the bottom is still to come!”
All is not smooth in the credit markets. There are signs of change upon the waters and in the sky. Spreads are widening, liquidity has got tight, and now we have a fund in serious trouble even as corporates try to raise as much as possible before rates rise or markets stall. The hyperscalers are having to pay up for debt – and that’s likely to drag spreads higher. I see trouble ahead…
Key Takeaways
The imminent death-spiral at London Credit Fund Arini demonstrates a new liquidity freeze. It’s been caught by distressed positions, covenant lite deals, and margin calls – and is now at the mercy of potential distressed buyers.
There are parallels with the 1998 LTCM crisis – and 2008, posing questions about what happens when clever assumptions about markets break down and result in a wave of contagion.
Patient capital – and distressed debt players – will seek to buy as the market tumbles, but history suggests the current crisis at Arini probably isn’t the bottom – just the opening salvo of a deeper credit crisis across other firms.
Hyperscalers have funded nearly $350 bln from bond markets in the last 2 years – causing their borrowing costs to rise and crowding out other issuers. There are significant risks there current high and rising leverage morphs into danger levels as AI costs rise.
Credit ratings today are no guarantee of credit ratings tomorrow. Even industrial giants like the US auto firms went from investment grade to bust in just a few short years – briefly!
Today is November 5th when we celebrate Guy Fawkes and the Gunpowder Plot of 1605! If you are looking for a Boom today… look no further than the Credit Markets.
Arini Capital Management, the upstart new credit fund on the block, has seen its $7 bln credit strategy fund hammered over the last few weeks. It has AUM of $22 bln. Just 2 months ago it was proudly announcing a new lending business. Today it looks to be spinning into an illiquidity death spiral.
Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com (http://www.morningporridge.com/) for access to the full story.
If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…
4 Nov 2026
The Blue Tsunami, Corruption and Musk
Blain’s Morning Porridge November 4th, 2026
“It’s worse than I imagined. I never thought we would lose South Carolina.”
Democracy wins. Trump was rejected by American voters, but his legacy will remain. The damage to done to the economy, the institutions of state, the constitution, and global power will shape America and geopolitics for decades. It’s unclear how the rest of Trump’s lame duck presidency will play out, but Corruption and the nexus of Wealth and Power will come under massively heightened scrutiny. Should the next US administration nationalise SpaceX?
Key Takeaways
Gridlock may reassure markets – the Democrats will seek to contain Trump in Congress, while Trump will veto their proposals. Little can happen – unless Republicans (keen to show “clean hands”) cross the floor.
Corruption will be the defining political battleground. Republican contenders will dance between critical MAGA support and showing they aren’t Trump puppies. The Democrats will want to investigate everything – rather than setting a new plan for a reinvigorated America.
Billionaire political donations demand investigation and democratic accountability.
Elon Musk is an example of wealth, power and a lack of accountability. When such individuals control strategic resources, the state may be forced to act.
US Voters delivered their verdict on Trump yesterday with both barrels – the greatest electoral defeat ever inflicted on a sitting president.
Commentators and the media had focused on how Trump’s electoral base of Republican and MAGA voters, and minorities like Hispanics, Blacks and Young Men might be thinking in terms of switching. But the commentariat largely ignored the Never-Again-Trump voters who turned out their millions to express their revulsion at what Trump has done to their nation. There was little written about how the bulk of American’s are horrified by Trump and everything he represents.
Many Americans will have welcomed last night as a cathartic reset moment.
But the world does not stand still. What’s done is done. Politics and geopolitics are a continuum – Trump’s actions (and those of the people he surrounded himself with) have already set the likely pathways for our futures. Their actions have triggered consequences which will resonate round politics, wealth, prosperity and conflict for decades.
Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com (http://www.morningporridge.com/) for access to the full story.
If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…
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