一个投资经理分享他投资研究过程中的感悟和认知，点滴进步。
加社群请联系微信：cwzy20230605
从业资格： 杨培鸿 基金从业编号：F0080000000299
Podcast Overview
一个投资经理分享他投资研究过程中的感悟和认知，点滴进步。 加社群请联系微信：cwzy20230605 从业资格： 杨培鸿 基金从业编号：F0080000000299
Language
🇨🇳
Publishing Since
8/16/2023
1 verified contact email on file for 财自由
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Recent Episodes
June 16, 2026
155.指数大换血：当沪深300变成"科技ETF"，普通人买指数还安全吗？
<h2><strong>节目介绍</strong></h2><p>本期节目聚焦2025年6月中旬A股核心宽基指数的半年度大调整。沪深300、上证50、中证500等指数迎来史上最大规模的"换血"——传统蓝筹全面让位，半导体、AI算力、光模块等硬科技板块强势接管，科技制造行业权重首次超越金融消费成为第一大板块。</p><p>但这场"含科量"创纪录的焕新，真的让指数投资更安全了吗？</p><p>杨培鸿从指数编制机制的底层逻辑出发，深入剖析了A股"量化自动调整"与美股"委员会主观评估"的本质差异，揭示了"高位纳入、低位剔除"这一指数投资的隐性风险。节目中，他以宁德时代、迈瑞医疗的历史案例，以及某电子布公司两年暴涨50倍、PB高达70倍的荒诞现实，警示当前科技板块估值已严重脱离基本面。</p><p>更引人深思的是，杨培鸿将当下的AI狂热与1929年大萧条前的"新投机时代"进行历史对照——当时汽车、收音机、洗衣机刚刚普及，市场高呼"老派交易者已经过时"，结果却是GDP崩盘三分之二、一代人再也不碰股票。</p><p>这不是一期教你"如何赚钱"的节目，而是一期教你"如何不亏钱"的节目。在所有人都在谈论"最后一次工业革命"的时候，或许我们更需要听听那些"不合时宜"的声音。</p><p></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://t.zsxq.com/8Kvf8">加入星球社群</a>，文字稿和PPT（如有）在知识星球社群内。</p><p>欢迎进入社群交流播客相关问题</p><figure><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/FnaB7_HrTDpbYOXOrze_b2TYZQ8c.jpg"></figure><p>一切问题咨询可联系(微信)：cwzy20230605</p><h4><strong>⚠️ 风险提示</strong></h4><p>· 本期节目内容仅代表嘉宾个人观点，不构成任何投资建议。</p><p>· 嘉宾提到的观点基于有限的信息和分析框架，投资需独立判断。</p><br><a href="https://oia.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/player/6a30b9d243a22a6955847e54?openTranscript=true&utm_source=rss&as=cHQ9MTIyNjE5MjQ3JmN0PXJzcyZtdD04&autoOpen=false">在小宇宙查看该单集文稿</a>
June 9, 2026
154.风格切换开始了吗？从1929年大崩盘到AI泡沫的冷思考
<p>【简介】<br>本期围绕"市场是否到了变盘时刻"展开。杨培鸿与小罗从巴菲特股东信谈到加尔布雷斯的《1929年大崩盘》，对比AI与互联网泡沫的商业模式差异，直言"拐点不可预测，最好的躲避是不参与"。他们还分享了塔勒布的收益哲学、身边基金经理陨落的真实案例，以及"活下去比赚大钱更重要"的投资常识。适合在狂热市场中寻找定力的投资者。</p><p><strong>本期推荐阅读：</strong>《纽约时报》著名记者、超级畅销书《大而不倒》作者历时8年，源自大量首次获准查看及未公开发表的关键资料。《1929》华尔街史上最惨烈的崩盘内幕以及它如何重创一个国家，读懂1929与当下的不安回响，你以为的历史，其实是明天的预演！</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/FsMtwZQbJ8jeWpjehH-xBkmuQENd.png"><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/FiFdjrjLTLyDs2susXnrbkm3Bu3B.png"><p></p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://t.zsxq.com/8Kvf8">加入星球社群</a>，文字稿和PPT（如有）在知识星球社群内。</p><p>欢迎进入社群交流播客相关问题</p><figure><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/FnaB7_HrTDpbYOXOrze_b2TYZQ8c.jpg"></figure><p>一切问题咨询可联系(微信)：cwzy20230605</p><h4><strong>⚠️ 风险提示</strong></h4><p>· 本期节目内容仅代表嘉宾个人观点，不构成任何投资建议。</p><p>· 嘉宾提到的观点基于有限的信息和分析框架，投资需独立判断。</p><br><a href="https://oia.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/player/6a27b2097444b5722235e1be?openTranscript=true&utm_source=rss&as=cHQ9MTIyNjE5MjQ3JmN0PXJzcyZtdD04&autoOpen=false">在小宇宙查看该单集文稿</a>
June 2, 2026
153.印尼矿业风云：当资源民族主义遇上中国产能
<p>【简介】</p><p>本期播客从一次印尼实地调研出发，深度拆解电解铝、镍、铜、黄金等大宗商品的投资逻辑，并探讨资源民族主义、AI浪潮与中资出海的真实图景。适合关注大宗商品、全球宏观与东南亚市场的投资者收听。</p><p>【时间轴】</p><p><a class="timestamp">00:00</a> 开场与嘉宾介绍</p><p><a class="timestamp">02:15</a> 电解铝：海外做多vs国内平淡的分歧</p><p><a class="timestamp">05:40</a> 几内亚铝土矿出口限制与资源民族主义</p><p><a class="timestamp">07:20</a> WTO名存实亡与资源国保护主义抬头</p><p><a class="timestamp">10:33</a> 电解铝的投资阶段：铝、铜、电力的横向比较</p><p><a class="timestamp">13:32</a> 印尼电解铝产能建设："印尼速度"vs"中国速度"</p><p><a class="timestamp">16:16</a> 电力瓶颈与火电站配套</p><p><a class="timestamp">18:02</a> 国内电解铝产能上限与超产空间</p><p><a class="timestamp">20:54</a> 铝的紧平衡：近月紧张，远月边际宽松</p><p><a class="timestamp">23:18</a> 需求分化：AI相关向好，传统行业承压</p><p><a class="timestamp">24:37</a> 镍：从底部反弹到印尼政府的"价格区间"</p><p><a class="timestamp">27:47</a> 镍矿企业的"大仇得报"：议价权转移</p><p><a class="timestamp">30:05</a> 冶炼厂vs矿山：谁掌握最终话语权？</p><p><a class="timestamp">33:32</a> 印尼镍矿的产权结构与配额制度</p><p><a class="timestamp">34:34</a> 镍冶炼工艺与产能调节弹性</p><p><a class="timestamp">35:15</a> 印尼风土人情：17000座岛屿与Batik文化</p><p><a class="timestamp">39:28</a> 华人财阀、岛主经济与综合集团折价</p><p><a class="timestamp">42:38</a> 极兔、冷链酸奶与印尼的消费创新</p><p><a class="timestamp">47:00</a> 中资企业出海印尼：青山标杆与产业集群</p><p><a class="timestamp">49:35</a> 黄金：从避险资产到风险资产的嬗变</p><p><a class="timestamp">53:07</a> 黄金的战术性避险与战略性避险为何同时失效？</p><p><a class="timestamp">55:26</a> 黄金成本、金价区间与AI对长期逻辑的重塑</p><p><a class="timestamp">58:56</a> 铜：供给确定性最强的大宗商品</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:01:22</a> 铜价会重演2008年级别暴跌吗？</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:05:26</a> 实物资产的价值重估：安全库存的永久性提升</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:08:01</a> 从"全球化溢价"到"国内安全溢价"</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:08:49</a> FOMO、AI渗透率与科技学习的必要性</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:16:59</a> 投资心态：全力以赴对待每一条信息</p><p><a class="timestamp">01:18:11</a> 收尾</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://t.zsxq.com/8Kvf8">加入星球社群</a>，文字稿和PPT（如有）在知识星球社群内。</p><p>欢迎进入社群交流播客相关问题</p><figure><img src="https://image.xyzcdn.net/FnaB7_HrTDpbYOXOrze_b2TYZQ8c.jpg"></figure><p>一切问题咨询可联系(微信)：cwzy20230605</p><h4><strong>⚠️ 风险提示</strong></h4><p>· 本期节目内容仅代表嘉宾个人观点，不构成任何投资建议。</p><p>· 嘉宾提到的观点基于有限的信息和分析框架，投资需独立判断。</p>
155 total episodes available
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