Click Beta

About Click Beta

A futurist, a financial planner and a special guest walk into a (virtual) bar, each carrying an investing topic the others don't know in advance. Join Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler for unscripted conversations about markets, the economy, and whatever else crosses their minds. We hope you'll walk away a more informed investor - but we guarantee you'll enjoy the journey either way

Publisher

Excess Returns

Category

business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

1 Feb 2025

Latest episode

13 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

18 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   13 Oct 2026

   AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?

   Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it. In this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market. Topics covered: Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantage Market breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOs Data center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological change Barry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstances How better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial advice Learning to collaborate with AI and asking better questions The debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serve Baseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimenting Deciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourself Barry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yield Timestamps: 00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question 05:14 AI concentration and market breadth 10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing 15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis 20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice? 25:49 Better client questions and better prompts 30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search 36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race 41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents 45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions 51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity 55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate 01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds 01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughts Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co (https://excessreturns.co/) No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

2. 

   5 Sept 2026

   Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All Unwind the Same Way?

   Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models. Cameron Dawson on Twitter https://x.com/CameronDawson (https://x.com/CameronDawson) NewEdge Wealth https://www.newedgewealth.com/ (https://www.newedgewealth.com/) Dave Nadig on Twitter https://x.com/DaveNadig (https://x.com/DaveNadig) ETF.com https://www.etf.com/ (https://www.etf.com/) Topics covered: Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy families How overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behavior Why rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching caution How recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulation The risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage apps Leveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protection AI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehicles How one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisons Why less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resources Baseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role model Timestamps: 00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy 05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins 10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize 16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash 21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs 25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow 29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure? 34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball 38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping 43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music? 47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models 51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing them Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co (https://excessreturns.co/) No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

3. 

   30 Jul 2026

   No Fed Guidance. No Quarterly Reports. No Data You Can Trust. Who Wins When Investors Know Less?

   In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler examine Federal Reserve uncertainty, the decline of market transparency and what weaker economic data means for investors. They discuss front-end rate volatility, reduced corporate disclosure, quantitative easing and the possibility of future private-credit bailouts before turning to physical media, career journaling, creative reinvention and what Metallica can teach finance professionals about selling out. Research discussed Mid-Year Outlook: The Metallica Market https://www.newedgewealth.com/mid-year-outlook-the-metallica-market/ (https://www.newedgewealth.com/mid-year-outlook-the-metallica-market/) The Degens Are Winning in Oil ETFs https://www.etf.com/sections/news/degens-are-winning-oil-etfs (https://www.etf.com/sections/news/degens-are-winning-oil-etfs) Cameron Dawson on X https://x.com/CameronDawson (https://x.com/CameronDawson) Dave Nadig on X https://x.com/DaveNadig (https://x.com/DaveNadig) Topics covered How reduced Federal Reserve forward guidance could increase uncertainty and front-end interest-rate volatility Why moving from quarterly to semiannual corporate reporting could widen information advantages for large professional investors How balance-sheet reduction, the end of QE and lower market liquidity could change active management and future returns The moral hazard created by past Fed interventions in high-yield bonds and what the central bank might rescue in the next crisis Why private credit, AI data centers, semiconductors and strategic infrastructure could end up on the Fed balance sheet How deteriorating survey response rates and post-pandemic distortions have weakened leading economic indicators Why physical books, records and other owned media feel more valuable in an AI and streaming-dominated world How curating books and music can preserve memory, identity and a legacy for future generations Career advice for documenting accomplishments, measuring professional progress and making time feel less fleeting How journaling, networking and the plus-minus-next exercise can improve reflection and decision-making The difference between creative reinvention, becoming successful and selling out to whatever the market wants What finance writers and market strategists can learn from Metallica, Radiohead and artists who remain authentic while evolving Timestamps 00:00 Intro and the strange culture of Fed watching 04:00 Why less forward guidance could raise rate volatility 08:27 Ending quarterly reporting and the information gap 13:00 QE, active management and lower return expectations 17:04 Moral hazard and what the Fed might buy next 21:16 Quantitative freedom and declining public transparency 26:00 Why economic data has become less reliable 30:29 Building an apocalypse library in the AI era 35:00 Streaming risk and the case for owning physical media 39:23 Career journaling and documenting accomplishments 43:42 Networking, reflection and Tiny Experiments 48:00 Metallica, selling out and staying true to your process 52:19 Finance writers, strategists and intellectual reinvention 56:28 Favorite records, Interpol and closing thoughts Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co (https://excessreturns.co/) No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

4. 

   6 Jun 2026

   “A Chaotic 30 Days” | What Happens When SpaceX Goes Public

   Click Beta returns with Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discussing what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem. They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure. Dave Nadig https://x.com/davenadig (https://x.com/davenadig) Cameron Dawson https://x.com/CameronDawson (https://x.com/CameronDawson) Topics Covered: Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading How 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussion Why pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investors How Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuations Why SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public market How options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discovery Why free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustment How much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPO What the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and credit Why real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubble How liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the market Why advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe access Peak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapes Timestamps: 00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic 04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO 09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX 13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying 17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX 21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble 25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going 29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX 33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access 37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories 41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown 45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins 46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs 50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists 53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture 55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson

5. 

   21 Apr 2026

   They Call It "Broadening." The Data Says It’s Just Two Stocks

   Markets are sending conflicting signals right now—shrugging off geopolitical shocks, powering higher on a narrow set of AI-driven stocks, and relying on a consumer that may be spending beyond its means. In this episode, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Cameron Dawson break down why the market feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals—and what that means for investors navigating today’s environment. They explore whether markets have become desensitized (or manipulated), why the economy may be more tied to the S&P 500 than ever, and how a handful of semiconductor companies are driving the majority of earnings growth. The conversation also dives into the risks beneath the surface—from the collapsing savings rate to the “K-shaped” economy—and what could ultimately break this cycle. Topics covered include: Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk and what actually matters for earnings The growing link between the stock market and the real economy The collapse in the savings rate and its role in sustaining consumer spending The “K-shaped” economy across both consumers and corporate earnings How just a few semiconductor stocks are driving the majority of earnings growth The risks of an AI-driven CapEx boom and whether it creates real economic value Valuation challenges in cyclical industries during peak growth The “revenge of the real world” and potential rotation into hard assets Labor markets as the key signal for economic strength or weakness Who actually benefits from AI—large corporations vs. small businesses The rise of prediction markets and whether they are efficient or exploitable The challenge for CEOs navigating AI disruption and communicating strategy Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and market setup 03:45 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical shocks 06:10 Desensitization vs. manipulation in markets 08:30 Are markets becoming “gamed” rather than rational 11:00 Why the economy is now tied to the S&P 500 13:00 The collapse in the savings rate and consumer spending 15:40 The K-shaped consumer and spending divergence 18:00 Semiconductor dominance in earnings growth 20:30 AI CapEx boom and economic impact debate 23:00 How to value cyclical growth like semiconductors 26:00 Revenge of the real world and asset rotation 29:00 What signals a peak in the cycle 30:10 Labor market as the key risk indicator 33:00 AI disruption and corporate strategy challenges 36:00 Why the past may not be a good guide for policy 39:40 Prediction markets and inefficiencies 45:00 AI winners: small businesses vs large corporations 52:00 Final thoughts on AI, labor, and the future of markets

6. 

   17 Feb 2026

   The Data You Trust Is Broken | What Aggregate Economic Numbers Hide

   In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler sits down with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth and Dave Nadig of ETF.com for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro data, positioning, tokenization, AI productivity, and the narratives driving investor behavior. The discussion dives into consensus forecasts, the K-shaped economy, international equity performance, dollar positioning, AI capex, and whether the biggest market moves are driven by fundamentals or liquidity shifts. Along the way, they explore tokenization in financial markets, stablecoins, Fed balance sheet dynamics, and how AI is quietly reshaping productivity for small businesses and individuals. This episode is a deep dive into stock market trends, economic data distortions, asset allocation shifts, and the structural forces shaping the investing landscape in 2026. Main topics covered: • Why consensus forecasts are average and why that creates risks for investors • Cyclical reacceleration narrative versus liquidity-driven market rotation • The K-shaped economy and distortions in US jobs data • Healthcare hiring versus cyclical employment weakness • AI capex spending and who actually benefits • Energy, industrials, and staples outperformance versus tech concentration • International equities versus US stocks and valuation percentiles • US dollar positioning extremes and contrarian signals • Positioning versus narrative and where market surprises hide • Tokenization, decentralized finance, and DTCC proposals • Stablecoins, collateral efficiency, and capital reuse in markets • Fed balance sheet, leverage ratios, and financial system risk • AI productivity gains in small and mid-sized businesses • The future of work, automation, and economic dispersion Timestamps: 00:00 Cameron on cyclical reacceleration and market expectations 03:00 Consensus forecasts and average return assumptions 06:00 K-shaped economy and distorted jobs data 10:00 AI capex and disconnect between perception and reality 12:30 Liquidity shifts and market rotation beyond mega caps 14:00 International equity valuations and performance gap 16:50 Dollar positioning and contrarian signals 18:20 Positioning versus narrative in stock performance 20:00 Tokenization and ETF market plumbing 22:00 Stablecoins and capital efficiency 24:00 Atomic settlement versus traditional clearing 27:00 Fed balance sheet and leverage ratio debate 30:00 Recessions, market resets, and social impact 39:00 Cultural distribution, media fragmentation, and market narratives 47:00 AI productivity, small business impact, and economic implications For more episodes from the Excess Returns network, including macro investing, asset allocation, ETFs, and AI-driven market insights, visit excessreturnspod.com.

7. 

   23 Dec 2025

   Nothing Has a Right to Exist in Your Portfolio | What the Last 15 Years Has Taught Us

   In this wide-ranging year-end conversation, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler reflect on what worked, what failed, and what the last decade has revealed about markets, diversification, and portfolio construction. The discussion moves from the collapse of traditional asset allocation assumptions to the realities of concentration risk, gold and crypto as psychological assets, and how investors should think about positioning after two extraordinary market years. Along the way, the group explores behavioral traps, factor investing disappointments, and what 2026 might demand from investors navigating uncertainty, valuation extremes, and momentum-driven markets. Main topics covered: • Why modern portfolio theory and the efficient frontier have struggled over the last 10–15 years • The “Sell America” trade, what actually worked, and why chasing institutional positioning can be dangerous • Gold’s breakout, Bitcoin flows, and how investors should think about real assets as psychological hedges • Why diversification has failed to add value for much of the last decade • Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven • The challenges of benchmarking in an increasingly concentrated market • Why most factor and smart beta ETFs struggled in 2025 • Momentum, bubbles, and the risks of recency bias • Tactical versus strategic asset allocation in a high-valuation environment • How advisors balance house views with clients’ concentrated positions • What could drive volatility, rotation, or mean reversion in 2026 Timestamps: 00:00 — Why the efficient frontier and diversification broke down 03:30 — The Sell America trade and why institutional narratives mislead 07:00 — Dollar dynamics, international stocks, and chasing relative performance 10:00 — Gold as a psychological asset and why institutions ignore it 14:00 — Bitcoin, liquidity, and why crypto behaves differently than gold 17:30 — Real assets, real estate, and knowing what you actually own 21:00 — Concentration risk and why the S&P 500 is no longer neutral 24:30 — Why diversification hasn’t added value for over a decade 28:00 — Factor ETFs, smart beta failures, and momentum dominance 31:30 — Bubbles, recency bias, and “knowing the game you’re playing” 34:30 — Rebalancing, leverage, and avoiding self-attribution bias 38:00 — What the last two years mean for 2026 expectations 42:00 — Favorite holiday traditions and family rituals 46:30 — Christmas movies, nostalgia, and comfort rituals 54:30 — Closing reflections, year-end mindset, and sign-off

8. 

   17 Nov 2025

   The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind the Rise of Financial Nihilism

   In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson dive into the concept of financial nihilism, exploring how market behavior, culture, and economic incentives shape decision-making and individual prosperity. We discuss market innovation, the pursuit of supernormal growth, and how these phenomena impact investor psychology, social dynamics, and everyday life. The conversation covers everything from AI-driven trends to personal stories and holiday traditions, drawing connections between larger economic forces and the personal choices people face. Topics covered • Robinhood’s new cash delivery feature and what it signals about financial nihilism • The cultural rise of sports betting, prop betting, and young-generation financial behavior • Whether monopolistic tech returns are sustainable and what underinvestment means for AI • The disconnect between economic data, earnings concentration, and lived experience • Energy constraints, data centers, electricity pricing, and AI’s physical footprint • Homeownership, meaning, values versus value, and generational economic frustration • Why innovation has focused on monetization instead of improving products • Community, novelty, and personal traditions in a world of monoculture • Halloween costumes, Thanksgiving rituals, and family stories Timestamps 00:00 Intro, social media innovation, and earnings concentration 01:06 Click Beta cold open and banter 02:54 Robinhood’s cash-delivery service and financial nihilism 06:15 Sports betting, leverage, and the boundaries of market risk 09:13 Gambling culture, social impact, and economic despair 11:00 Monetization vs product improvement in tech innovation 12:45 Meaning, homeownership, and generational disconnect 15:00 Values versus value in modern markets 17:00 Capitalism, monopolies, and return on invested capital 19:00 Underinvestment, complacency, and AI spend 21:00 Grid constraints, compute capacity, and electricity 24:00 Market concentration and four-year S&P doubling 26:00 Consumer sentiment, inequality, and weighted data 28:00 AI, data centers, and public infrastructure strain 33:00 Closing loop on nihilism and novelty 34:00 Halloween costume stories 38:53 Thanksgiving traditions 43:00 Family themes, novelty, and community 52:00 Wrap-up and where to follow the hosts

9. 

   5 Oct 2025

   The Rate Cut Paradox: When Lower Rates Cool the Economy

   When politics and markets collide, it’s easy to let emotions take over. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Cameron Dawson break down the latest government shutdown, how politics really impact markets (if at all), and what investors should pay attention to amid the noise. They also explore whether AI spending could mirror past bubbles, how Fed rate cuts might hurt the very consumers they’re meant to help, and the importance of creative feedback in work and life—all wrapped in the trio’s signature mix of humor, insight, and surprise topics. Topics covered: • Should investors let politics influence portfolio decisions • How government shutdowns historically impact markets and GDP • The concentration of market gains and “earnings bubbles” in AI-related sectors • Why the Fed cutting rates could slow high-income consumer spending • The rise of prediction markets and “casino capitalism” • Whether the AI boom could lead to one of the biggest wealth redistributions ever • The difference between valuation bubbles and earnings bubbles • How overinvestment cycles in railroads and fiber optics mirror today’s AI buildout • Lessons from editing, feedback, and doing your best creative work • The case for (and against) shushing during yoga Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and cold open 02:00 Politics and investing—should they mix? 06:30 The market’s indifference to shutdowns 10:00 How to tell if news events really matter to markets 12:00 Shutdown effects on GDP and employment 14:00 What could make this shutdown different 17:00 How Fed rate cuts might backfire 20:30 Data blackouts, prediction markets, and Calci 25:00 The psychology of betting and “casino capitalism” 26:50 Market concentration and the “data center blob” 28:30 When the market becomes the economy 29:00 Surprise topic: Will the AI bubble burst? 33:00 Over-earning and capital destruction in past bubbles 36:00 The redistribution effect of AI CapEx 40:00 Creative feedback and doing your best work 47:00 Shushing, silence, and respecting quiet spaces 53:00 Closing thoughts and sign-offs

10. 

    6 Sept 2025

    Navigating a Low Trust Market

    In this episode of Click Beta on Excess Returns, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler dive into the trust crisis in markets, the implications of AI-driven CapEx, and how small lessons from life translate into investing wisdom. From the reliability of payroll data to the “bubbles all the way down” problem, the conversation blends deep market insights with practical rituals for navigating uncertainty. Topics Covered The decay of institutional trust and unreliable economic data Public vs. private data and how investors should interpret it “Good news vs. bad news” in markets and earnings reactions AI-related CapEx, margin pressure, and the sustainability of Big Tech’s dominance Winner-take-all dynamics in AI and parallels to the fiber boom Productivity gains: small businesses vs. mega-cap tech Investing lessons from technical analysis, rituals, and “last box” routines The importance of presence, humility vs. hubris, and team culture Democratization of alternatives, fee/tax efficiency, and “hassle efficiency” Timestamps 00:00 – The challenge of trusting economic data 03:13 – Who do you trust anymore? 05:07 – Public vs. private data and the “Strange Landing” thesis 07:38 – Good news, bad news dynamics 10:20 – Earnings estimates and labor data gaps 12:00 – AI-driven CapEx and narrow growth drivers 15:00 – Valuation multiples and eroding free cash flow margins 18:00 – Winner-take-all risks in AI 22:00 – Small business productivity vs. mega-cap adoption 27:00 – Rituals, technical analysis, and “the flush deck” 31:00 – Always say it out loud: transparency in investing 37:00 – Leadership lessons: presence, colleagues, and culture 45:00 – Democratization of alternatives and “hassle efficiency” 53:40 – Wrapping up: trust, skepticism, and humility

11. 

    3 Aug 2025

    The Liquidity Trap Door | Why the Market's Only Solution is Also Its Biggest Risk

    What happens when liquidity floods the system, narratives drive markets, and the international investing playbook gets rewritten in real time? In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson joins Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig for a wide-ranging conversation that blends sharp macro insight with unfiltered commentary on global markets, thematic investing, valuation risk, and even concert etiquette. From the Mag 7 to Labubu toys to the Church of the SubGenius, this is finance as you've never heard it before. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why international earnings have flatlined since 2007 vs. 150% U.S. earnings growth The role of liquidity in driving asset prices and masking risk Whether dollar weakness could trigger an international bull market The earnings dynamics behind U.S. and European bank rallies Capital flows, tariffs, and the sustainability of international outperformance The search for a "liquidity killer" and the shadow finance risk Why thematic investing often masks lazy portfolio construction The behavioral case for income-focused investing (even when it makes no sense) The future of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs), cult brands, and cultural investing Cameron Dawson’s stance on standing at concerts—and why you should too ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Global earnings: U.S. vs. International and EM 02:00 – Ground rules and intro banter 03:30 – Why international investing is back in the conversation 06:00 – Earnings stagnation outside the U.S. 08:00 – Capital flows and the dollar’s role in international bull markets 10:00 – Are European banks investable again? 13:00 – The fairy tale of tariffs turning into CapEx 15:00 – Liquidity as the market’s ultimate panacea 18:00 – Shadow banking and the private credit risk stack 21:00 – Valuation as amplifier, not timing tool 23:00 – What could kill the liquidity narrative? 26:00 – Are clients chasing the wrong themes? 28:00 – The case against lazy thematic investing 32:00 – The Church of the SubGenius and embracing small TAMs 35:00 – Cultural signals, talismans, and deeper connections 38:00 – Why do income products exist? Exploring irrational demand 43:00 – Trust structures and gaming distributions 44:30 – Standing at concerts: A live debate 49:00 – The Ozzy Osbourne legacy and Tina Turner on meditation 51:00 – Where to find the hosts and guest online

12. 

    2 Jul 2025

    The Market That Won’t Break | Why Risk Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

    Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig analyze the current market's irrational behavior, discussing geopolitical events, the death of selling, energy risks, and the potential role of Gen X in saving communities.

13. 

    29 May 2025

    The Big Beautiful Debt Delusion | The Unpredictable Cost of Endless Borrowing

    Dave Nadig, Matt Zeigler, and Jason Buck analyze the complexities of U.S. fiscal policy, taxation, and spending, revealing the surprising influence of various factors on the American economy in this interview episode.

14. 

    2 May 2025

    The Domino's Recession Indicator | The Risks Markets Are Missing

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck dive into the complex state of the U.S. economy — from recession signals and tariffs to shifting consumer behavior and surprising cultural trends. With no Google allowed and a shared mission to cut through the noise, the crew brings their personal anecdotes, macro analysis, and economic skepticism to the table. If you’ve ever wondered how the people behind the scenes of financial media actually talk when the cameras are off, this is that conversation. Topics Covered: Why it “feels” like a recession — even if it’s not official The bullwhip effect and what shipping data is telling us Consumer slowdown: anecdotes, vibes, and Domino’s earnings Why tariffs may create hidden entrepreneurial opportunities Services vs goods recessions: which one hits harder? Brand winners and losers: the surprising Chili’s comeback Is Gen X the forgotten generation? How generations might need to collaborate to move forward Do we still care about art, or are we remixing ourselves into oblivion?

15. 

    29 Mar 2025

    The Tail Risk Tipping Point

    Join Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig in this unfiltered and dynamic episode of Click Beta from Excess Returns. Feeling "stupid and exhausted" from their daily grind in markets and business, the trio ditches the polished analysis for a raw, behind-the-scenes rant session. With a mix of optimism, pessimism, and plenty of tangents, they dive into pre-agreed and surprise topics—no Google allowed—offering a blend of humor, skepticism, and unscripted insights. From AI breakthroughs to geopolitical powder kegs, this episode is a rollercoaster of ideas, seasoned with their signature banter and a touch of nihilism. **Main Topics Covered:** - **AI’s Right and Left Tails:** The hosts explore AI’s potential for transformative breakthroughs (like rewriting Social Security’s COBOL code) versus its risks, including trust erosion and overhyped promises. - **Tariffs and Economic Policy:** They debate the optimistic case for tariffs reshaping U.S. manufacturing and tax policy (e.g., a VAT system) against the reality of roboticization and political chaos. - **Geopolitical Tensions:** From the U.S. as a fading global bully to speculative left-tail events like Arctic shipping disputes or an accidental spark in Africa, they ponder the end of Pax Americana. - **Community and Legacy:** The conversation shifts to pro-social thinking—how AI might free up time for community, contrasted with musings on legacy, ancestry, and whether it even matters. - **Surprise Topics:** - *Canadian Animosity Toward the U.S.:* Is Canada’s current patriotism a fleeting protest or a lasting shift? - *Broadening Perspectives:* Matt seeks ways to inspire long-term, pro-social thinking in everyday life. - *D.C. Real Estate and Political Scapegoats:* Jason speculates on buying the dip in D.C. housing and Elon Musk as Trump’s potential fall guy. No investment advice here—just three market-weary friends riffing on the world as they see it. Like, subscribe, and share if you enjoyed the chaos!

16. 

    5 Mar 2025

    The Sovereign Wealth Fund Grift

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck bring their financial expertise to the table for an unfiltered discussion about today's most pressing economic issues. Unlike other finance podcasts that chase headlines, Click Beta aims to show viewers how industry professionals actually think through complex topics behind the scenes. The hosts dissect current events with a focus on practical implications rather than sensationalism, drawing from their daily interactions with clients and markets.Key topics covered:Strategic Reserves & Sovereign Wealth Funds - A critical examination of recent proposals for a US cryptocurrency reserve and whether sovereign wealth funds make sense for America's economic structurePrivate Credit Markets - An insider's look at the risks and opportunities in private credit, with warnings about illiquid assets being packaged in liquid wrappersMedia Consumption & Analysis - How financial news is framed and packaged, with advice on finding reliable information amid the noiseInvestment Philosophy - Personal perspectives on portfolio construction in uncertain times, diversification strategies, and the psychology behind financial decision-makingThrough their conversation, the hosts offer valuable insights for investors trying to separate meaningful market movements from political theater while maintaining a long-term perspective.

17. 

    5 Feb 2025

    Trade Wars, Tech Revolution, and the Death of the Middle Manager

    Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities. Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike. Topics covered: Trade wars and tariffs: Impact on small businesses and manufacturing The evolution of local manufacturing and 3D printing Cryptocurrency trends and market dynamics The changing nature of employment and middle-class knowledge work The future of local economies and digital communities Follow Click Beta for monthly conversations that go beyond the headlines and bring you practical insights from experienced market professionals.

18. 

    1 Feb 2025

    Introducing Click Beta

    A futurist, a hedge fund manager, and a financial planner walk into a (virtual) bar, each carrying an investing topic the others don't know in advance. Add in some of the sharpest minds in finance as rotating guests, and what ensues is unlike any investing podcast you've ever heard. Join Dave Nadig, Jason Buck, and Matt Zeigler for unscripted conversations about markets, the economy, and whatever else crosses their minds. We hope you'll walk away a more informed investor - but we guarantee you'll enjoy the journey either way

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

Apple Podcasts (US)

5.0 / 5

3 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 20 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

26

Social presence

0

YouTube

0

Engagement

32

Contact Click Beta

Guest appearances

Does not typically book guests

Based on episode analysis; this does not confirm that the show is currently accepting guests.

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