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EA Forum Team
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society & culture · society & culture · technology
“How much should we worry about the pneumonic plague lableak in Siberia?” by Drew Spartz
Epistemic status: I wrote this up hoping people can poke holes in it because I am quite worried.
Here's what we've heard so far:
Local media is reporting that an employee of a BSL-3 lab in Irkutsk, Russia, died of pneumonic plague on Oct 1st.
The initial quarantine covered 200 people who were in contact with the employee before she died.
The FSB (Russian FBI) was seen assisting in the quarantine, which means it was not voluntary.
Soviet-era whistleblowers like Ken Alibek claim Irkutsk was a major bioweapon development facility.
As of Oct 4th:
The quarantine has expanded to 5 hospitals in the area.
The Russian government has switched to denial/coverup. Local news sources have deleted mentions of "pneumonic plague."
Local universities and schools have canceled some classes and extended mask mandates.
On the lab's website, they mention gain-of-function research for making bacteria more virulent.
The White House is monitoring the suspected outbreak.
10/5 update:
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are now doing quarantine health checks at the Russian border to contain the spread of pneumonic plague.
Russian equivalent of HHS is now denying there was any accident at the lab at all.
[...]
---
Outline:
(00:18) Here's what we've heard so far:
(00:51) As of Oct 4th:
(02:06) 10/5 update:
(02:29) Why this might be a big deal
(03:53) Why this might not be a big deal
---
First published:
October 5th, 2026
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jukqfkkeez3cCqxkC/how-much-should-we-worry-about-the-pneumonic-plague-lableak (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jukqfkkeez3cCqxkC/how-much-should-we-worry-about-the-pneumonic-plague-lableak?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration)
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration).
---
Images from the article:
(https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1791172327/lexical_client_uploads/pjojtet79ytp1g3nldbo.png)
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6 Oct 2026
“We judge activism by the wrong measures: four ways we mismeasure whether protest works” by Laura Thomas-Walters
Epistemic status: I've been an academic, climate activist and research lead in Extinction Rebellion UK's Data Analysis and Insights Circle. I co-authored most of the studies below. I am writing in a personal capacity, drawing on extensive research into climate activism.
Summary
People often decide whether a protest worked from a next-day poll or a hostile headline. I believe this is the wrong evidence.
I see four common mistakes: polling the public when the targets are elites, measuring too soon, trusting what people say over what they do, and generalising from one audience to another.
I end with five suggestions for funders and evaluators. Most apply to any movement that protests, including animal advocacy.
Most people in the UK accept that climate change is real, and most are worried about it. The majority (66%) even support nonviolent direct action to protect the UK's nature (Guardian). Yet very few take part in collective action. In 2023, five years after it was founded, only about 0.25% of the UK population (roughly 170,000 people) had joined Extinction Rebellion, a major climate activism group.
That gap between sympathy and participation is where a lot of arguments about whether protest "works" go wrong. [...]
---
Outline:
(02:18) What the evidence can and can't tell us
(04:15) Measure 1: polling the wrong audience
(06:30) Measure 2: measuring at the wrong time
(08:16) Measure 3: trusting the wrong kind of data
(10:40) Measure 4: generalising from the wrong people
(13:34) What this means for funders and evaluators
(14:54) References
---
First published:
October 5th, 2026
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/P4wReSgW6MSKpQGvz/we-judge-activism-by-the-wrong-measures-four-ways-we (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/P4wReSgW6MSKpQGvz/we-judge-activism-by-the-wrong-measures-four-ways-we?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration)
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration).
---
Images from the article:
(https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/6977dc9edc547037c115aa59a08895c4c4053e0acbae57140196f48e963f2f6e/rdvwnf1pibefvbewoqx2)
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6 Oct 2026
“Wildlife Technology Fund @ Renaissance Philanthropy” by mal_graham🔸
Cross-posted from my substack.
Today, I’m launching the Wildlife Technology Fund at Renaissance Philanthropy.
The purpose of the fund is to scope, design, and manage coordinated research programs (CRPs), focused on making wild animal welfare interventions a reality. To do this, we’re prioritizing work that benefits both people and animals, often by working to solve some kind of wildlife conflict. While I believe we should work to solve all kinds of wild animal welfare issues, things that significantly benefit people and resolve conflicts will be more tractable to implement sooner.
We’re currently hiring for program managers to scope and manage CRPs. If you’re looking for varied work and high autonomy, this might be for you. Please share widely!
I can’t thank Wild Animal Initiative enough for doing the foundational work that makes this Fund possible. WAI is where these ideas were borne and refined, and the team there is responsible for the fundamental insights that make identifying positive interventions possible.
Over the next few months, I’ll share explanations of some of the program areas we’re exploring, and why they stand to help (at least) millions of people and billions of wild animals. For now, some [...]
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Outline:
(01:28) What is a coordinated research program?
(03:13) How will the Fund work?
(05:06) What kinds of things will you focus on?
(07:33) Why Renaissance Philanthropy?
(07:54) How can people support the Wildlife Technology Fund?
---
First published:
October 5th, 2026
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bMph29wcdxpvDMrGF/wildlife-technology-fund-renaissance-philanthropy (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bMph29wcdxpvDMrGF/wildlife-technology-fund-renaissance-philanthropy?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration)
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO (https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration).
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