Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing.
If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.

by EA Forum Team

Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.
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9/25/2022
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June 19, 2026
<p> Written in a personal capacity.</p><p> I recently came back to SF after finishing my first year of grad school. I already had a sense that new money was coming into EA causes. But being back in the Bay Area has made me feel like this funding increase could be truly flabbergasting. Shamelessly plagiarizing Joe Carlsmith's great blog post, I think that our actions should reflect a strong likelihood of an upcoming step-change in funding for EA causes. </p><p> Here is a (stitched together) tl;dr of Joe's post:</p><p> Imagine you learn that the quantity of year-over-year EA-style philanthropy will double in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. This would suggest that eight times as much funding would be directed to EA causes in 2028 relative to 2025. How surprised would you be to end up in this world? What would you do differently if you knew this would happen? </p><p> To be clear, I am not confident that the amount of money directed to EA causes will increase this steeply. A huge amount depends on the decisions and wealth fluctuation of a few key donors. However, at this point, I'd be more surprised if the amount of money directed to [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> June 17th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hnwFvqFLgkSvFfzbQ/predictable-updating-about-funding-in-ea?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hnwFvqFLgkSvFfzbQ/predictable-updating-about-funding-in-ea</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/hnwFvqFLgkSvFfzbQ/htbjb5czlwhk2jhgixrg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/hnwFvqFLgkSvFfzbQ/htbjb5czlwhk2jhgixrg" alt="Text slide titled "Bayesianism about future evidence" with italicized explanation below." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</p></div>
![Episode thumbnail for [Linkpost] “Gears for political races” by Hazem Hassan🔸](https://pod-engine-public.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/images/4mZ6WzfIdBYGW5unfQ84vbZE58OPJgvlynIWnDBrTYE.png)
June 18, 2026
This is a link post.<p> Crossposting this from LessWrong, with the author's permission.<br> </p><p> <br> In the past few years, many people around me have tried to convince me that US electoral politics is important. But like many other people in the community, I’ve been suspicious of many of the high-level arguments that I’ve heard. It felt like people were pulling numbers out of poorly-documented models I didn’t have time to examine and citing studies I didn’t have time to read. But I lacked a gears-level model of why and how individual efforts could impact electoral outcomes, and I felt intimidated by all the statistics and skeptical of trusting people adjacent to politics.</p><p> In the past year, as I’ve done more research and (more recently) volunteered on the ground to help Alex Bores's campaign in NY-12[1], I’ve developed a gears-level understanding of how electoral politics in the US works.</p><p> I now believe that working on US electoral politics is one of the highest impact areas from the general AIS perspective. I feel like I was a fool for not thinking it through sooner. In this post, I’ll share some of the gears I’ve learned that inform this belief, with a [...]</p></br></p></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:19) ~2% of open-seat primaries come down to 100 votes or less</p><p>(02:51) Talking to voters can net 1/3rd of a vote each hour</p><p>(05:35) Getting people to bother voting at all is a good strategy</p><p>(06:11) Campaigns are very money-constrained, which costs them time</p><p>(10:04) Returns don't really diminish</p><p>(11:26) There's lots of opportunities to be clever in ways that make you 50% more effective at canvassing</p><p>(11:52) If you're motivated and deeply care, you can greatly outperform the majority of volunteers</p><p>(13:25) Yes, when people spend tons to support/oppose a candidate, it has a notable effect</p><p>(15:20) Donations > reaching out to friends/warm contacts > canvassing > ~anything else an average person can do</p><p>(18:23) People over-fixate on vibes and win vs loss</p><p>(20:53) Some interventions feel like they don't work but the numbers say otherwise</p><p>(21:45) Seriously, a group of agentic people can be an enormous political force</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> June 17th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Tv6mC6EMvqu9WXwYn/gears-for-political-races?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Tv6mC6EMvqu9WXwYn/gears-for-political-races</a> </p> <p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lesswrong.com%2Fposts%2FnSqB3qYP36enJLRq2%2Fgears-for-political-races" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nSqB3qYP36enJLRq2/gears-for-political-races</a></p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/nSqB3qYP36enJLRq2/d97660d58b5c6dba0693717f72457729ab17b329bca9db27ffa13192d889c862/vdpcfrivkbufj5pvvmfg" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/nSqB3qYP36enJLRq2/d97660d58b5c6dba0693717f72457729ab17b329bca9db27ffa13192d889c862/vdpcfrivkbufj5pvvmfg" alt="(CA, WA, and LA are excluded because of nonstandard rules: CA/WA use a top-two primary, and LA uses an all-party November ballot with a runoff if no one exceeds 50%, none of which produce a separate party primary to measure.)" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</p></div>
![Episode thumbnail for [Linkpost] “Seat at the Table: new short film on AI (and help me with the next one?)” by SuzyShepherd](https://pod-engine-public.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/images/4mZ6WzfIdBYGW5unfQ84vbZE58OPJgvlynIWnDBrTYE.png)
June 17, 2026
This is a link post.<p> My new short fiction film 'Seat at the Table' is now out on Youtube!</p><p> Premise:</p><p> When Eva visits her Dad's AI company, she meets Liam, the company's flagship AI system, who she imagines as a polite, precociously-smart kid. But with the company's co-founder claiming Liam 7 is too dangerous to release, Eva starts to wonder if her Dad can really control what he's created.</p><p> Would love to hear your thoughts on the film. It's targeted at people who know fairly little about AI, to get them quickly up to speed on where we’re at right now and what this technology actually is. The main points I was trying to get across were:</p><ul> <li> It's grown, not built</li><li> It's fascinating[1]</li><li> It's deceptive</li><li> The people making it are scared of it</li><li> The people making it are trapped in race dynamics</li><li> It's getting smarter, fast</li></ul><p> If there are people you wish understood these things better, I’d love for you to show this film to them and, if possible, report back on their response. It's always hard to gauge what effect a film is having, especially on people with low AI context, and I’ve found the anecdotal reports about [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:30) The next idea</p><p>(02:25) How you can help</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> June 16th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dPDcLsKHmMAn4hxjj/seat-at-the-table-new-short-film-on-ai-and-help-me-with-the?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dPDcLsKHmMAn4hxjj/seat-at-the-table-new-short-film-on-ai-and-help-me-with-the</a> </p> <p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FqHpnWiBHHaU%3Fsi%3DhCoCl06nB5zTrx-p" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/qHpnWiBHHaU?si=hCoCl06nB5zTrx-p</a></p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>
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