Energy Markets Daily

About Energy Markets Daily

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

Publisher

EMD

Category

business · business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

28 Aug 2025

Latest episode

11 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

279 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   11 Oct 2026

   2026 Year-in-Review and Q4 2026 Outlook

   2026 YEAR-IN-REVIEW AND Q4 2026 OUTLOOK. CRUDE OIL: WTI 2026 YTD average $84.01/bbl (range $55.99-$112.95), up 68% from Jan start (~$57 to ~$96 Sep). Q1 ~$72.13, Q2 ~$95.76, Q3 ~$86.94. vs 2025 avg $64.94 (up $29/bbl, +45%). Brent 2026 YTD $93.81/bbl (range $61-$138), up 84% from Jan (~$62 to ~$114 Sep). Q1 ~$66.60, Q2 ~$117.30, Q3 ~$92.40. vs 2025 avg $69.14 (up $24.87, +36%). Recent Oct: WTI ~$91.85, Brent ~$125.44. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub 2026 YTD average $3.48/MMBtu. Monthly range Jan $4.144, Feb $3.148, Mar $3.036, Apr $2.683, May $2.938, Jun $3.206, Jul $2.963, Aug $2.766, Sep $2.954. Q1 ~$3.45, Q2 ~$2.94, Q3 ~$2.90. vs 2025 avg ~$3.52 (relatively flat YoY). Recent Oct ~$3.03. CRUDE PRODUCTION: US 2026 proj 13.9M bbl/d (2025 actual 13.7). Global 2026 proj 101.1M bbl/d (2025 actual 106.3, major decline Strait disruptions). OPEC 2026 proj 23.9M, non-OPEC 77.2M. Nov 2026 quotas unchanged (Saudi 10.478M, Russia 9.949M, Iraq 4.431M, Kuwait 2.676M, Kazakhstan 1.628M, Algeria 1.007M, Oman 0.841M). Q4 assumes ~4.5M bbl/d shut-ins, Brent $105 avg. STRAIT OF HORMUZ 2026 CRISIS: Pre-crisis baseline ~17-21M bbl/d crude/refined products. Current ~80-85% (late Sep), dropping 40-80% (early Oct). AIS transits ~1-10% normal (~85/day pre-crisis, now single-digit). Cumulative loss 2B barrels first 7 months. Peak disruption 14% global combined oil/gas supply. Largest modern disruption (2x 1970s shocks, 6x Russia-Ukraine). Tanker attacks surge Sep/Oct (9-12+ incidents/week). War-risk ~30x pre-crisis. Buffers (Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines 3.5-5.5M bpl usable, inventory/demand compression) containing gap. NATURAL GAS 2026: US consumption proj 92.37 Bcf/d. Production proj 112.20 Bcf/d. LNG exports ~17.6-18 Bcf/d. Storage Oct 30-forecast ~3,850 Bcf (2% above 5-yr avg), build ~328 Bcf Oct. INVENTORY: US crude commercial (ex-SPR) late Sep 427.3M bbl (2% above 5-yr avg). SPR historic low 284.6M bbl (down 30% YoY, lowest since late 1982). Gasoline 6-7% below avg, distillate 12-14% below avg. Q4 2026 & 2027 FORECASTS: Brent 2026 annual avg $96/bbl (EIA, raised from $91), Q4 $105 (raised $14 due ME constraints, shut-ins, draws, diesel tightness). 2027 avg $84. WTI 2026 ~$88, 2027 ~$80. Global inventory Q3 draw 1.9M bpl, Q4 draw 0.7M bpd, 2027 builds. Henry Hub 2026 annual avg $3.48/MMBtu, 2027 avg $3.16 (down 9%, ~$0.32 lower). Jan 2027 no spike (vs Jan 2026 storm spike $7.72). 2027 monthly range low ~$2.60 (Apr/May) to high ~$3.90 (Dec). US dry gas prod 2026 proj 112.20 Bcf/d, 2027 proj 116.13. LNG exports 2026 ~17.6-18 Bcf/d, 2027 ~18.6-19. HEATING SEASON 2026-27: Residential heating consumption flat nationally vs prior winter. HDD ~3,150 (3% below 10-yr avg), slightly warmer normal. Q4 weather milder than avg (Nov-Dec ~1,430 HDD, slightly below avg). Heating expenditures ~9% lower than prior winter (lower prices + weather), Northeast down 14%. GEOPOLITICAL: US-Iran conflict ongoing since Feb 28, 2026 (7-8 months Oct 2026). Shut-ins avg several M bpd, peak 5-10+ M bpd. Key variables: US/Israeli strikes potential, proxy actions, full Hormuz blockage (+$4/bbl per M lost, prices could spike $100-150 severe). US midterms Nov 2026. Diplomacy fragile/stalled. Scenarios: gradual normalization (prices $70-90), prolonged standoff/escalation (elevated/spike further), knock-on global inflation/growth. SUMMARY: WTI 2026 YTD $84.01 (up 68%), Brent $93.81 (up 84%). Q4 Brent EIA $105, 2027 $84 Brent/$80 WTI. Henry Hub $3.48 YTD, 2027 $3.16 (down 9%). US prod 13.9M bpd, global 101.1M (Strait impact). OPEC Nov quotas unchanged (supply tight). Strait Day 247 crisis, flows 80-85% late Sep dropping 40-80% early Oct, 2B barrels lost 7 months, 14% global disruption peak. US crude 427M bbl (2% above avg), SPR historic low 284M (30% down YoY). Q4 Brent $105 EIA, WTI $88. Gas $3.48 avg, 2027 $3.16 down. Heating mild. LNG rising. Geopolitical elevated. Recovery 2027 supports price declines. ME constraint Q4 key risk. Winter mild/low heating. No peak demand. Supply resilience/buffers contain volatility. Downside if escalation eases, upside if tensions rise. Data-driven: fundamentals support 2027 moderation.

2. 

   9 Oct 2026

   Geographic Feature: Turkey

   Friday, October 9, 2026. TURKEY ENERGY OVERVIEW. Strategic hub, modest domestic oil/gas, rapidly expanding LNG, multiple pipelines, self-sufficiency policy. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Jul 2026 ~128.34M cubic meters monthly (down). Sakarya Black Sea ~109M cubic meters (84.6% onshore), TPAO ~96.5%. Declining (maturing fields, maintenance). NATURAL GAS IMPORTS: Jul ~3.063B cubic meters. Pipeline ~2.869B (Azerbaijan 1.001-1.011B TANAP/BTE, Russia ~948M TurkStream/Blue Stream, Iran ~919M). LNG ~194M (Algeria). Consumption ~2.648B (industrial ~1.114B, power ~770M, residential ~376M). Exports ~197.61M (Syria ~145.4M, Bulgaria ~49.1M). Storage ~5.638B (~5.413B underground, ~225M LNG). LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS: ~10 contracts (BP 1.6 bcm/yr, Cheniere 1.2 bcm, Shell 0.8 bcm, Mercuria 4 bcm, Equinor, JERA, others). Jan-May 2026 ~6.9M metric tons. Forecasts 2026 ~16.6 bcm, 2027 ~17.95 bcm, 2028 ~18.88 bcm. Diversification, hub ambitions, re-exports Central/E Europe/Balkans. PIPELINES: Russia ~21.75 bcm/yr (renewed), Iran ~10 bcm/yr (renewal negotiating), Turkmenistan 2026 resume, Azerbaijan TANAP/BTE (ongoing). MEDITERRANEAN: 2 FSRUs (Dörtyol double capacity, Gazipasha-Anamur). Target ~200M cubic meters/day seaborne 2 years. Existing Marmara, Aliağa, FSRUs Dörtyol/Saros. TURKEY-TRNC PIPELINE: ~101 km (~97 km offshore, Anamur-Teknecik). Oruc Reis survey early Oct. MOU Jul. 2028 target. ~3.1 bcm/yr capacity. CRUDE OIL: Jun 2026 ~127K bbl/d (stable), TPAO combined ~350K boe/d, target 550-600K by 2028. SAKARYA BLACK SEA: Phase 1 ~9.5M cubic meters/d (operational), Phase 2 Osman Gazi late 2026 target ~20M cubic meters/d, total reserves ~92.4B cubic meters. TRANSIT: Iraq oil avg 2.65M bpd, ~250K bpd via Ceyhan. BOTAŞ LNG charter 940 days. IMPORT COSTS: Aug 2026 ~$6.46B (up 33.8% YoY). Diversifying U.S. LNG. POLICY: Non-discriminatory (Russia/Azerbaijan/Turkmenistan/U.S./Algeria). SUMMARY: Hub. Crude ~127K bbl/d, TPAO 350K boe/d, target 550-600K by 2028. Sakarya Phase 1 9.5M, Phase 2 late 2026 ~20M, reserves 92.4B. Gas production 128.34M (Jul, declining), Sakarya 109M. Imports 3.063B (pipeline 2.869B, LNG 194M). Consumption 2.648B. Exports 197.61M. Storage 5.638B. LNG 10 contracts, forecasts 2026 16.6 bcm, 2028 18.88 bcm. Pipelines Russia 21.75 bcm (renewed), Iran 10 bcm (renewal). Mediterranean 2 FSRUs, target 200M cubic meters/d. Turkey-TRNC 3.1 bcm/yr. Iraq transit 250K bpd. Imports Aug $6.46B. Import-dependent, LNG expansion, hub development, Sakarya growth, self-sufficiency 2028.

3. 

   8 Oct 2026

   Geographic Feature: Alabama

   Thursday, October 8, 2026. ALABAMA ENERGY OVERVIEW. Rank #16 nationally by BOE. Small but active onshore/offshore oil and natural gas sector. CRUDE OIL: Jun 2026 ~217.5K bbl monthly, May ~233.2K bbl. Wells ~5,073 (Jun), operators ~54. Conecuh County leads ~119.2K bbl (~229K MCF gas). Mobile ~40.1K bbl, Escambia ~23.4K, Clarke ~10.4K. Cumulative Mobile County ~102.6M bbl (1990+), statewide ~357M bbl oil & ~5.5B MCF gas (1990-Jun 2026). Operators: Pruet Production, Hilcorp, Exxon Mobil, ARP Production, PGP Operating, Sklar Exploration, Breitburn. NATURAL GAS: Jun ~5.6M MCF monthly, May ~5.6M MCF. Cumulative leaders Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Lamar. Underground storage ~33.95 BCF (Jun). OFFSHORE: Baldwin Offshore ~232 bbl oil, ~1.3M MCF gas (37 wells, May). Mobile Offshore ~181 bbl oil, ~1.08M MCF gas. Negligible vs federal GoM. No major Alabama deepwater 2026 highlighted. GULF OF MEXICO CONTEXT: Federal ~1.8M bpd stable/modest growth. Deepwater 94% crude, 80% gas. Shelf declining. New projects Whale/Ballymore/Dover (2025 onstream), Salamanca/Shenandoah expansions add tens-hundreds K bpd. U.S. forecast ~13.8M bpd. GoM ~13% U.S. crude. COASTAL REVENUE: GoMESA grants Mobile/Baldwin exceeded $52M (Aug 2026). NATIONAL SHARE: ~0.07% U.S. crude, ~0.16% natural gas daily. Comparable Michigan/Mississippi. REGULATORY: Alabama Oil & Gas Board. Sep 9 example: Conecuh Barnett Field (Pruet) swabbing/pressure tests. Ongoing Conecuh/Mobile activity. SUMMARY: #16 nationally. Crude ~217.5K bbl (Jun), ~233.2K bbl (May). ~5,073 wells, ~54 operators. Conecuh leads ~119.2K bbl. Cumulative ~357M bbl, ~5.5B MCF (1990-Jun). Gas ~5.6M MCF. Storage ~33.95 BCF. Offshore Baldwin ~232 bbl, ~1.3M MCF. Negligible offshore vs federal. Federal ~1.8M bpd, deepwater 94%/80%, shelf declining. New projects add tens-hundreds K bpd. GoMESA $52M+. Onshore-dominant. Small-scale contributor.

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